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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,881
  • Apr 16, 2015 12:35am Apr 16, 2015 12:35am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Squawk I noticed EU and GU already taking a dive.To me its wait for UJ to test 1.20 then see how market reacts. Not taking shorts on UJ yet. Too early in my opinion Regards
I'm with you. I see the price bleeding back to fill all the Asian session. Interesting to see if this is an exhaustion run. I think this is an interesting level to give way or run up from here. Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,882
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:01am Apr 16, 2015 6:01am
I think uj is ripe for breakdown...
I am not breakout trader, so..dont believe me
Will see.
  • #1,883
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:03am Apr 16, 2015 6:03am
Looking at usdtry daily...still painting..
  • #1,884
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:33am Apr 17, 2015 2:33am
Quoting Idkurv
I think uj is ripe for breakdown... I am not breakout trader, so..dont believe me Will see.
UJ keep pushing down slowly...
  • #1,885
  • Apr 17, 2015 5:35am Apr 17, 2015 5:35am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} UJ keep pushing down slowly...
And it is falling..
  • #1,886
  • Apr 20, 2015 7:25am Apr 20, 2015 7:25am
Starting to build shorts on UC
3x2250 small positions leaving lots of room to add if nassary
Target 119-118
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,887
  • Apr 20, 2015 8:13am Apr 20, 2015 8:13am
Did you drop the 34 emas? They are quite useful on daily & 4h for me.
  • #1,888
  • Apr 20, 2015 8:22am Apr 20, 2015 8:22am
Quoting sakisf
Did you drop the 34 emas? They are quite useful on daily & 4h for me.
Hi Sakis
I didn't drop them but not taking them seriously either.My focus is mostly on fundamentals and fib levels which define wave distances.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,889
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:31am Apr 20, 2015 9:31am
Quoting Davit
Starting to build shorts on UC 3x2250 small positions leaving lots of room to add if nassary Target 119-118
Closed at 2216
+100pips on 3positions
I anticipate run up again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,890
  • Edited 6:42pm Apr 21, 2015 6:18pm | Edited 6:42pm
Building another sets of shorts on UC
Target 120 or lower
1x2275
1x2260
2x2225
1x2235

All orders are .30lots
When stacking your orders factor in that your entries could be overrun hence go in small or set Stop losses.
I don't advise others do what I do but it works for me.I expect some DD and that's part of my trading style.Reasonable DD is acceptable which is common on institutional trading environment as well.
One thing to understand is this price is fluid and your entry no matter how good you are will be either too early or too late.Often happens one gets the direction correct but gets stopped out before price resuming direction of the trade and this has lot to do how intuitions unload big orders in millions and even billions.
Cost averaging has a bad reputation but for me its the only way to trade knowing that market is part random ( X can unload and change market anytime irregardless of trend or other factors)hence your entry is almost most times off so to overcome this take your 1 lot and divide in .25 and stack orders until they are all invested and your average price will be lot better then if you had 1lot entered at once.Problem with going in all at once then you have a problem of DD and Stop loss.Knowing how order flow takes place in market its almost guaranteed you will get stopped out.
Should you have second thoughts about the trade then you take .25 loss instead of 1full lot loss.
Anyway thought to share few ideas here
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,891
  • Apr 21, 2015 6:48pm Apr 21, 2015 6:48pm
Quoting Davit
Building another sets of shorts on UC Target 120 or lower 1x2275 1x2260 2x2225 1x2235 All orders are .30lots When stacking your orders factor in that your entries could be overrun hence go in small or set Stop losses. I don't advise others do what I do but it works for me.I expect some DD and that's part of my trading style.Reasonable DD is acceptable which is common on institutional trading environment as well. One thing to understand is this price is fluid and your entry no matter how good you are will be either too early or too late.Often happens...
  • #1,892
  • Edited 8:08pm Apr 21, 2015 7:15pm | Edited 8:08pm
SRT welcome

I like to talk about order flow
For new traders this seems unimportant but for seasoned trader its vital to understand.
Please read this excellent article
http://orderflowforex.com/order-flow...-flow-trading/

"Let me tell you what order flow trading is NOT. Order Flow Trading is NOT technical analysis or fundamental analysis, although both of those certainly do play a part in order flow analysis. Why isnt order flow trading technical or fundamental analysis? Because technical and fundamental analysis DO NOT always move the market. They do not always move the market because they do not always generate the necessary order flow to move the market. Sometimes they can move the market, and other times they cannot. Technical and fundamental analysis are NOT the foundation of every market. Order flow and liquidity is the foundation of every market."

Once one understands true concept how market moves then you realize all your lights and bells indicators including moving averages are useless in terms of predicting future price action.
Any system that does not factor X randomness of the market(order flow) then it can't be applied profitably.This is why most systems fail to generate profits.
True system must accept that X is vitally important otherwise one can trade color boxes forever and never show profit.

For Example CNTrader applies harmonics successfully but he always says "watching behavior 1st" he knows that "behavior" is order flow.
Anyway its enough for tonight
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,893
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:54pm Apr 22, 2015 3:54pm
Quoting Davit
Starting to build shorts on UC 3x2250 small positions leaving lots of room to add if nassary Target 119-118
I shifted into CAD about this same time. I'm not dong much trading, more a matter of shifting my money around. Then today Goldman Sachs (not that I generally give two shakes about their opinion) posted this:

http://www.efxnews.com/story/28707/u...-goldman-sachs

For me it's mostly about oil, particularly now that nukes are on the table in the Middle East, and the creatively accounted "budget" Canadian Minister of Finance Oliver finally released after a long delay that (surprise!) shifts debt both to the past and distant future while shifting profit (from selling off our shares in GM at a loss to Goldman Sachs and control of our own wheat to the Saudis) just in time for the upcoming election where we'll see all sorts of excellent government-controlled data leading into it, and most significantly, stating that a rise in interest rates is back on the table and another cut definitely won't happen.

Sure, the budget is a complete fraud, the data will be heavily "nudged" towards proving what a great job the Conservatives are doing selling Canada to the lowest bidder, and the idea of raising interest rates, particularly so soon after a surprise cut, is laughable, but the market won't treat it that way, and reality-based trading is the easiest way to give away your money, and since I prefer making money to losing it there's really no choice but to play along.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,894
  • Apr 23, 2015 8:07am Apr 23, 2015 8:07am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I shifted into CAD about this same time. I'm not dong much trading, more a matter of shifting my money around. Then today Goldman Sachs (not that I generally give two shakes about their opinion) posted this: http://www.efxnews.com/story/28707/u...-goldman-sachs For me it's mostly about oil, particularly now that nukes are on the table in the Middle East, and the creatively accounted "budget" Canadian Minister of Finance Oliver finally released after a long delay that (surprise!) shifts debt both...
Hi KADC
Good to see you back.Your inputs are appreciated.I don't know much about Canadian politics I base my UC trades mostly on Oil and fact that it is oversold.
I keep buying CD every-time it goes high exit repeat.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,895
  • Apr 23, 2015 5:45pm Apr 23, 2015 5:45pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi KADC Good to see you back.Your inputs are appreciated.I don't know much about Canadian politics I base my UC trades mostly on Oil and fact that it is oversold. I keep buying CD every-time it goes high exit repeat. regards
I have to watch myself buying CAD because I have a bias towards always wanting it to go up. Economically I don't buy into "race to the bottom so we can sell to the lowest bidder" mentality, and personally, I don't want a 20-25% "currency surcharge" added onto my purchases. However, the fundamentals and technicals have aligned in this case so I'm reasonably confident that we've made a good choice with CAD making headway across the board.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,896
  • Edited 9:33am Apr 24, 2015 8:59am | Edited 9:33am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I have to watch myself buying CAD because I have a bias towards always wanting it to go up. Economically I don't buy into "race to the bottom so we can sell to the lowest bidder" mentality, and personally, I don't want a 20-25% "currency surcharge" added onto my purchases. However, the fundamentals and technicals have aligned in this case so I'm reasonably confident that we've made a good choice with CAD making headway across the board.
Took few shorts on UC 2155 2166 2170
Could be early but I think we are heading 1.20.Will add more should price go higher
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,897
  • Apr 24, 2015 9:08am Apr 24, 2015 9:08am
helo davit .
whts ur opinion regarding GBP/cad...?
  • #1,898
  • Apr 24, 2015 9:13am Apr 24, 2015 9:13am
Quoting asi
helo davit . whts ur opinion regarding GBP/cad...?
Hi ASI
That's difficult cross to trade because daily range is 150+ means either you get it right or get stopped out or prepare DD
I don't trade it.I have not touched this for over a year.
From the chart if I had to make a trade I would short it.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,899
  • Apr 24, 2015 9:24am Apr 24, 2015 9:24am
actually im in this trade but so i want to it is possible more up r starting to downward becz gbp/usd going down .
thanx
  • #1,900
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:40am Apr 24, 2015 10:40am
added few more shorts on UC 2170 total 4
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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