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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,561
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:12am Apr 19, 2015 7:12am
Yellow diamonds says top 9%, CONGRATS! I'm seeing 173 on G/J before a long but BOJ intervention can stop the sellers. The BOJ admits to buying stocks on 143 days when the Nikkei 225 was about to close in the red. Still many whispers are being heard on risk having the potential for a fast and ugly correction. Funny you mentioned it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,562
  • Apr 19, 2015 10:57am Apr 19, 2015 10:57am
Attached Image
  • #10,563
  • Apr 19, 2015 1:17pm Apr 19, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting raiders
{image}
HAHAHA! This looks to be the perfect place to buy and that is the reason "they" will sell it down. I see as zig zag continually lower until that 173. multi million dollar algos are awesome. They make you think the price is rising when in fact it's going nowhere and then it falls. Look at your H4 chart. Looks like a pack of Skittles.

See Y'all in London.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,564
  • Apr 19, 2015 9:18pm Apr 19, 2015 9:18pm
ok fellas and ladies. looking for some feed back here. im looking at the gj and still dont see a definite direction. i still think it looks like it wants to rise but im not sure if its ready to just yet. that said i think im on the sidelines for a bit.

cj looks like it wants to go on a trip north for a bit. still searching for a reasonable target 98.24 might just do for the mean time. but i want more. and if oil kicks into gear we should have more.

ea still looking at 1.423 although im waiting to see what happens tonight/tomorrow before looking to get back in.

anyone looking at anything else or got opinion on those?
  • #10,565
  • Apr 19, 2015 11:08pm Apr 19, 2015 11:08pm
ea i will leave alone unless it goes to the target price then i will short

right now looking at en short
  • #10,566
  • Apr 20, 2015 12:40am Apr 20, 2015 12:40am
Euros scare me. No reason to buy a no bench rate money. It's fluff now, a funding currency. Still short GJ from 177.83 CAD/JPY should fall after a stop run tonight.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,567
  • Apr 20, 2015 1:34am Apr 20, 2015 1:34am
Good morning

Inserted Video
  • #10,568
  • Apr 20, 2015 2:50am Apr 20, 2015 2:50am
Quoting Profit Daily
FX-Ray updated his profile, apparently leaving FF. That is a tragic loss as he is in that 1% of folks truly on here to help others. Excellent trader, very knowledgeable, never asks for anything in return. Other than alien, can't think of anyone who has contributed more to my success. Thank You for your teachings. You will be missed.
I wish him good luck! Therefore didn't know him a lot. All the best to his trades
Errāre hūmānum est; in errōre persevērāre belluīnum
  • #10,569
  • Apr 20, 2015 3:16am Apr 20, 2015 3:16am
Quoting raiders
ea i will leave alone unless it goes to the target price then i will short right now looking at en short
Yep, waiting mode on EA ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #10,570
  • Apr 20, 2015 6:19am Apr 20, 2015 6:19am
EA is a real mess right now... Based on Daily, Nzdcad might be ripe for a short to .927 right about now, if anyone wants something "different" (from GU/GJ) for the next 3-5 days

Edit: Would be safer to wait for 0.9487 before short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADDaily.png Size: 19 KB
  • #10,571
  • Apr 20, 2015 7:10am Apr 20, 2015 7:10am
Everything seems to be ranging right now...

I dont like ranges. Lost 100 pips this month on damn ranges! I need to go back to forex school!
  • #10,572
  • Apr 20, 2015 7:11am Apr 20, 2015 7:11am
Quoting alexpi
EA is a real mess right now... Based on Daily, Nzdcad might be ripe for a short to .927 right about now, if anyone wants something "different" (from GU/GJ) for the next 3-5 days Edit: Would be safer to wait for 0.9487 before short {image}
Will watch this pair. Thank you..
  • #10,573
  • Apr 20, 2015 7:31am Apr 20, 2015 7:31am
Hope it helps Talzus
  • #10,574
  • Edited 8:29am Apr 20, 2015 8:15am | Edited 8:29am
Eur/usd, gbp/usd. Those two are also somewhat between 2 fibonacci points, and are nearing their anticipated future hourly ichimoku cloud resistance. If they both break below, the gbp/jpy will fall.

The geppy is dragged by both the cable and the ninja (gbp/usd & usd/jpy respectively). Euro and sterling falling means dollar is rising, but the gbp/jpy tends be influenced more by the cable than the usd/jpy. It may have a bit of short term up & down ranging, but falling is inevitable if the cable broke through a support.

If they fall, taking a short is a good idea. Only question is whether it'll be a false break or not; around5-6 hours ago today, we had one LAST spike up for the eur/usd and gbpusd before prices tumbled 100 and 50 pips respectively. It's been like that last week as week. That's the scary part.

Things aren't looking too good for other major currencies. A lot of them, like the pound sterling and the Canadian dollar, are overbought against the dollar. There's still technically more room left to go over, but longing (i.e. buying gbp and cad) in hopes of reaching...say, 1.51300 for the gbp/usd and 1.2000 for the usd/CAD might take a while, or may not even happen during the week depending on news and price action.

My advice is to stay out until you see a clear breach & a retest of a S/R. Of course, false breaks need to be watched out for.

Edit: And there's also the u.K. general elections to watch out for. The sad thing is, the results aren't certain (I can't find any credible British news outlet that says one party has an overwhelming chance of dominating), so pricing the sterling before the election is risky. So no free lunches there, unlike the Scottish referendum of 2014.
  • #10,575
  • Edited 9:11am Apr 20, 2015 9:01am | Edited 9:11am
^Good points, I agree with you overall, how long-term is your view for USDCAD?

We're at a strong flipzone/supply zone on the monthly so weak US fundamentals could really push down on the USD as a whole over the next 3-4 months imo. Got a sell limit set up just above the break of the 3-month daily supply zone which held since January, for now. Timeframe for reaching ~1.2581 will probably coincide with NFP. If it does I'll remove my sell limit and wait for the storm to pass.

As a consequence of the above reasoning GU could end up floating in a range rather than dropping hard as it often does prior to elections. Only thing that could drop the GJ lower than 173-174 is yen strength, but that doesn't seem to be in the making so May could be a range for both GJ and GU as US weakness, BoJ easing and GB elections battle to show which currency is the weakest

I realise there are lots of IFs here, but that's how I see it for now

Edit: Here's two pics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADMonthly.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 29 KB
  • #10,576
  • Edited 9:19am Apr 20, 2015 9:06am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting alexpi
As a consequence of the above reasoning GU could end up floating in a range rather than dropping hard as it often does prior to elections. Only thing that could drop the GJ lower than 173-174 is yen strength, but that doesn't seem to be in the making so May could be a range for both GJ and GU as US weakness, BoJ easing and GB elections battle to show which currency is the weakest I realise there are lots of IFs here, but that's how I see it for now }
Canadian data alone won't do much for the euro and pound sterling. Economical and geo-political difference is too great. US fundamentals will be more likely to trigger something.

Quoting alexpi
^Good points, I agree with you overall, how long-term is your view for USDCAD?
For the loonie (usd/cad), 1.22000 is the daily chart support from what I can see. If that's severely broken (i.e. we remain at/below/around 1.2000 for extended periods of time), then 1.1800 could be in the works as the next support. 1.1700~1.1800 must hold for any long term bullish momentum. If that breaks, then bulls might have to take a break.

Keep in mind that this is long term outlook, so an intraday breach of these supports by a couple doze pips is not out of the question. I try to use them only as general indicators and not as buy/sell points.

I'd recommend eyeing on the cable. If it has a clean break below 1.489000, that's a good sell signal for the intraday. If not, then range trading/above resistances.

GU is being very sensitive about 1.49000. I'd prefer it to go down (makes it more predictable to trade for me), but it's really up to bulls and bears by this point.
  • #10,577
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:25am Apr 20, 2015 9:25am
Fx Ray's professional approach to trading combined with his sense of humour has made trading for me so much more fun.

He is like a professional sports commentator at a soccer match who gets so excited when each decision point is reached and the anticipation of the next move , I can almost hear a shout of " Goal " each time price action so to say scores.

I raise my hat to you Sir , thank you for all your contribution. I have learnt a lot from you.
  • #10,578
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:35am Apr 20, 2015 9:35am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Canadian data alone won't do much for the euro and pound sterling. Economical and geo-political difference is too great. US fundamentals will be more likely to trigger something. {quote} For the loonie (usd/cad), 1.22000 is the daily chart support from what I can see. If that's severely broken (i.e. we remain at/below/around 1.2000 for extended periods of time), then 1.1800 could be in the works as the next support. 1.1700~1.1800 must hold for any long term bullish momentum. If that breaks, then bulls might have to take a break. Keep in...
We'll see, been short GU since Friday from 1.503 and added 2 more trades earlier today. With 4h long TL broken a nice move down could be in the works. Tomorrow will show
  • #10,579
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:37am Apr 20, 2015 10:37am
that cad was kinda ranging 128.....to 124....now the weakness in Canada is hidden....got a bump from the oil rise last week but....industries are down
  • #10,580
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:52am Apr 20, 2015 10:52am
Quoting Vermillion
Eur/usd, gbp/usd. Those two are also somewhat between 2 fibonacci points, and are nearing their anticipated future hourly ichimoku cloud resistance. If they both break below, the gbp/jpy will fall. The geppy is dragged by both the cable and the ninja (gbp/usd & usd/jpy respectively). Euro and sterling falling means dollar is rising, but the gbp/jpy tends be influenced more by the cable than the usd/jpy. It may have a bit of short term up & down ranging, but falling is inevitable if the cable broke through a support. If they fall, taking a short...

Good wisdom. I also think risk appetite will suddenly sour. "They" are already planning to sink these pairs and offload risk I'm sure. GBP/JPY to 173. H4 is way to slow for me now. To manage risk better I have to be with the 5 minute chart late Tokyo into London. Had a 55 pips gain and now it's back up to BE all because I was waiting for a directional break out that may take days to occur. 5 minute with the H4 in my rear view.
Be humble or be humbled.
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