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The Really Useless Thread

  • #133,881
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:59am Apr 17, 2015 9:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.3993
How I see today's situation is that the short term up trend is going to continue. The reasons are:

- After NY opened, the data at 10am were not bad, plus a positive core CPI, the price could have fallen if the traders really were bearish at that point. But nothing happened.
- But the price didn't go up either, instead sideways around 076x.
- It seems NY doesn't agree with London, wants to test 085x as well. But there might be some buy orders at 073x which NY wants to fill.
- In a word, NY is waiting for London's last try and then go home. After that it will test the 085x level, and potentially break it.
- Imho, it is all about the market wants to position at a higher place before good US data keep coming out (they say Q2 should be better, but who knows). I think the next way down will do the parity thing, and then after that...would be hard to pump up and dump again...which means limited revenue...

Feel free to comment. I'm totally open to different opinions.
  • #133,882
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:03pm Apr 17, 2015 1:03pm
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} I love it when a plan comes together. UJ broke 119.70 Euro above 1.0580 DAXIE doing its thing from the YEARLY R3 - amazing short with terrific R:R I have positions in all. Dax took 1 off the table still have 2 more lots in... {image}
Best Trade Ever !!

Managed to ride it all the way here.
Going to long at 11610.. Hope others caught the move .. I gave a nice heads up

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #133,883
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:06pm Apr 17, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Best Trade Ever !! Managed to ride it all the way here. Going to long at 11610.. Hope others caught the move .. I gave a nice heads up {image}
congrats , waiting for a turn here (previous low 11618)
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #133,884
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:09pm Apr 17, 2015 1:09pm
Allright, have a good weekend everyone.

PS:
the 80's are back, time to impress the kids...

Inserted Video
Fail better.
  • #133,885
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:10pm Apr 17, 2015 1:10pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} congrats , waiting for a turn here (previous low 11618)
The speed of the move was terrific.

I am thinking about Long at 11610 .. Also maybe 11580 is the 4 hr 200 MA.

But Friday is a biatch, and we are already 3.5% down today. Maybe best to wait for Monday
  • #133,886
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:17pm Apr 17, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
Here we go important US reports coming. Both inflation and macro numbers (consumer sentiment) are fresh and key so play extend beyond the NY opening range to the weekly close.

On the fundamental side. Expecting inline numbers in both [check] fronts to confirm that the bad round of US numbers were just a small bump in the road and inflation is under control for hikes by the summer.
Quote
For the actual news flow. Complex flow expected as there are 4 way combination ...

  1. The less probable play comes (overshoots in both ... or a similar combination [check]) with a micro zigzag move as high as 1.087x with flip zone at 1.082x [check] before selling off to 1.071x [failure]

...


Europe went home and euro bears were too weak and failed by a couple of dozen ticks(low 1.073x) to test 1.071x. A timid attempt to crack the highs again intraday for the closing session but day looks pretty much over in my case. Roll a bit irrelevant at these levels.

On the major swing side nothing much to see or do around here. Same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,887
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:07pm Apr 17, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Best Trade Ever !! Managed to ride it all the way here. Going to long at 11610.. Hope others caught the move .. I gave a nice heads up {image}
Indeed I second that thumbs up from USD-Bear. You were hinting since last week for that selloff. Very well done.

Greek drama for next week starting to get into play from what it seems but given the almost muted reaction in the euro I am starting to think that is just pure profit taking in equities (sell in may and go away?) with risk in Greece as an excuse for the trigger.

Bastards already made a killer this year in equites (especially in Europe) whatever happens next so bypassing FED hikes and Greek drama until the summer to ride the free money train again (QE still be there for a while) seems to be the play.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,888
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:38pm Apr 17, 2015 2:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed I second that thumbs up from USD-Bear. You were hinting since last week for that selloff. Very well done. Greek drama for next week starting to get into play from what it seems but given the almost muted reaction in the euro I am starting to think that is just pure profit taking in equities (sell in may and go away?) with risk in Greece as an excuse for the trigger. Bastards already made a killer this year in equites (especially in Europe) whatever happens next so bypassing FED hikes and Greek drama until the summer to ride the free...
To get a thumbs up from you- I am humbled sir, thank you!
Have a great weekend everybody!
  • #133,889
  • Edited 4:02pm Apr 17, 2015 3:27pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed I second that thumbs up from USD-Bear. You were hinting since last week for that selloff. Very well done. Greek drama for next week starting to get into play from what it seems but given the almost muted reaction in the euro I am starting to think that is just pure profit taking in equities (sell in may and go away?) with risk in Greece as an excuse for the trigger. Bastards already made a killer this year in equites (especially in Europe) whatever happens next so bypassing FED hikes and Greek drama until the summer to ride the free...
1.0920's
1.1080
1.1390's
1.1470's
1.21xx
69
  • #133,890
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:27pm Apr 17, 2015 3:27pm
In the euro:

No surprises with 1.082x (how many times already) for the roll?. Exact number is irrelevant today as now is the only and key level in play for next week.

Map pretty clear for next week and the rest of the month. We have pretty much set both the high and the low of this month (only Greece default will cancel it).

For next week a light calendar with more positive macro news expected from the EZ (to more probable than not make equities bounce back to pre sell off today) but the actual mover and shaker come from the Greek drama (again). Politicians, gossips, tweets and rumours until Thursday pre eurogroup meetings and the final knee jerk reaction (that would probably will extend till the Monday after).

Kicking the can (to be honest don't know why the noise when the real deal comes later in May/June when the payments are due and the official default can happen...but anyway) will complete the swing to the highs with the extension to 1.126x to roll the month with the key FOMC for the hikes coming soon announcement (and down we go till the summer)...

Failure to reach a deal and worst default will sent the euro in one way to 1.049x (with default 1.02xx at least in the knee jerk reaction in minutes) but it would 100% guarantee to make the FED hold any hawkish talk (even actively being dovish short term to avoid dollar going wild) at least for a few months offsetting a large part of the extended move down in the euro....

We'll see how it goes but all cards on table and map look pretty clear...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,891
  • Apr 17, 2015 5:32pm Apr 17, 2015 5:32pm
Quoting sisse
In the euro: No surprises with 1.082x (how many times already) for the roll?. Exact number is irrelevant today as now is the only and key level in play for next week. Map pretty clear for next week and the rest of the month. We have pretty much set both the high and the low of this month (only Greece default will cancel it). For next week a light calendar with more positive macro news expected from the EZ (to more probable than not make equities bounce back to pre sell off today) but the actual mover and shaker come from the Greek drama (again)....
Sir, from your analysis you are saying 1.078xx maybe the low level next week till Thursday when the data with shake the market. If so, meaning, we shall see continuation of the bull for next week?
  • #133,892
  • Apr 17, 2015 6:03pm Apr 17, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting palinco
{quote} Sir, from your analysis you are saying 1.078xx maybe the low level next week till Thursday when the data with shake the market. If so, meaning, we shall see continuation of the bull for next week?
palinco , read his post again & again , everything is there , if you paid attention to the fact that some greek rumours may spread around you won't call for a low or high at the moment ... next week we shall see reaction level by level ..

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #133,893
  • Apr 17, 2015 7:52pm Apr 17, 2015 7:52pm
Quoting palinco
{quote} Thanks, with time I will grow.
Quoting palinco
Thank God at last I found the secret behind fx. It was just there all the time starring at me. Now, all gain, no more loss.
That was quick- only one day?
  • #133,894
  • Apr 17, 2015 10:24pm Apr 17, 2015 10:24pm
Decent bunch of chap here in this thread esp the OP. Unfortunately while almost all seems to know/aware to stay away from bad trades but none seems to have the complete confidence/conviction to go for the good one. Hmm.....someday.....

GS.
  • #133,895
  • Apr 18, 2015 2:10am Apr 18, 2015 2:10am
Quoting genghistar
Decent bunch of chap here in this thread esp the OP. Unfortunately while almost all seems to know/aware to stay away from bad trades but none seems to have the complete confidence/conviction to go for the good one. Hmm.....someday..... GS.
Unfortunately this is a gift only the very few creatures being able to scream "a reverso" have received. Might be a better place to follow...
  • #133,896
  • Apr 18, 2015 4:58am Apr 18, 2015 4:58am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Unfortunately this is a gift only the very few creatures being able to scream "a reverso" have received.
  • #133,897
  • Apr 18, 2015 6:07am Apr 18, 2015 6:07am
Quoting hoom
{quote} palinco , read his post again & again , everything is there , if you paid attention to the fact that some greek rumours may spread around you won't call for a low or high at the moment ... next week we shall see reaction level by level .. hoom
Thanks for that. My view is that, like he stated the Greek potential default will have a great impact next week. I forsee a gap as market opens on Sunday. This is likely to go below. Drghi is making a speech today and surprises insinuations on the defaults will contribute also.
  • #133,898
  • Apr 18, 2015 6:15am Apr 18, 2015 6:15am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} {quote} That was quick- only one day?
Lol, not one day. This has taken me 8 years. I am not a newbie to this game. Started trading since 2007. Now, I have plugged the missing link to my strategy. 1 week now has shown that this is the missing link I had been searching for for since 1 year now.
  • #133,899
  • Apr 18, 2015 9:51am Apr 18, 2015 9:51am
Quoting kenfen69
{quote}
Tell me when you moved to your final destination, I have two furry presents for you.
  • #133,900
  • Apr 18, 2015 11:38am Apr 18, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Tell me when you moved to your final destination, I have two furry presents for you.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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