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  • #201
  • Apr 17, 2015 12:03pm Apr 17, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} The market doesn't give 2 sh**s about candle patterns/formations. When one forms it has a 50% of working and 50% chance of failing. Its as simple as that. Does this mean they are not tradable? In my opinion, No.
I don't like such statements. When you have found what works for you it's great but patterns/formations do work for other people. There are traders here at FF who earn a shitload of pips with these technics. When you want I name some for you and you can tell them what you think about their trading. So a little bit more respect for other traders would be helpful.
  • #202
  • Apr 17, 2015 12:31pm Apr 17, 2015 12:31pm
The large banks deal from specific areas. It's not the patterns or formations that make one individual candle more valuable than another, its that we can often determine the intent of the MM and reduce our own risk my honing in on where (and when) they deal from. I agree that taken in groups, there are often great opportunities to trade patterns (I like Harmonics to an extent) but understanding where Institutions are likely dealing from and what they are trying to do with price increases ones understanding, and can often make these patterns more valuable. Last Friday there was a bullish Bat in AU (I think) that occurred as prices had been making higher highers, that to me was much more interesting than a pattern that appears contra the primary trend.
  • #203
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:21pm Apr 17, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting MCFly
{quote} I don't like such statements. When you have found what works for you it's great but patterns/formations do work for other people. There are traders here at FF who earn a shitload of pips with these technics. When you want I name some for you and you can tell them what you think about their trading. So a little bit more respect for other traders would be helpful.
Exactly my point. What I said was despite the fact that the setups are 50/50 at best they can be traded profitably.
  • #204
  • Edited Apr 18, 2015 9:03am Apr 17, 2015 3:05pm | Edited Apr 18, 2015 9:03am
Late trade just before dinner my time.
Dinner screwed me on this one.
This is trading though, the good, the bad and the ugly.
The moral of the story is...don't execute 'after' your wife calls dinner! You keep the chef waiting and it's just not the same for the rest of the evening lolol

6B-Pound futures
This trade was taken only due to the fact i'd pulled ticks in all day. I wouldn't usually do these out of the blocks.
Why?
Seller was never broken here properly. There was a build-up of stops under NY low from buyers working London.
This liquidity can and does sometimes come under fire, especially when sentiment is on stops.
In effect you put yourself between the dog and its bone. I was uncomfortable to say the least longing off London . You'll see later why i was uncomfortable (final chart).
A better trade would have been to work the late NY pivot as a seller and offload or liquidate shorts into the buyers sell stops under NY. That way you're on sentiment and not buying into weakness sticking your neck right out there.
I had dinner so it wasn't an option. I was on time constraints lol.

We had soft trade in the GBP on a USD bid NY am(firm CPI and CAD helping).
I was working off a London open tag and good accumulation at that level. You can see money on the London open price in the DOM.
Not only passively buying, but they were aggressors at that level too.

200K (light due to reasons above) at MKT and limit liquidation set to 41 (low NY am pivot) and 48( front running 50).
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Got a bit unlucky here but left it running. I thought i'd fill out at the above limits, but no joy.
Stops run to break even and off to dinner i went!
Came back...not paid. See, shit happens, often!
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And after the hunt....
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Good weekend to everyone!
Regards
  • #205
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:16pm Apr 17, 2015 3:16pm
There will always be those rare cases that can mess up a good strategy!
bless those who hate you! Set yourself higher...
  • #206
  • Apr 17, 2015 6:17pm Apr 17, 2015 6:17pm
%95 or %88 closes above or below than open.
Then why we are not just martingaling London Opens ? ..
It seams catching 10 pips with %85 success rate seems not that hard.

Any logic answer on it ?
  • #207
  • Apr 18, 2015 1:51am Apr 18, 2015 1:51am
Quoting Yakashimatsu
%95 or %88 closes above or below than open. Then why we are not just martingaling London Opens ? .. It seams catching 10 pips with %85 success rate seems not that hard. Any logic answer on it ?
Does a heart surgeon say to himself :"How can I do this without any effort? "
Would you want to be operated on by someone who has that attitude?
Your question :" Then why are we not just..........?
The way its stated brings across a certain attitude that doesn't yield results.

Doing things properly, thoroughly is how you profit. Results from corner cutting are not great in any field and its the same with trading.
There is a saying :" The more you put in, the more you get out ".

The above is my logical answer to your question.
Good weekend too you Yakashimatsu.
Regards
  • #208
  • Apr 18, 2015 6:52am Apr 18, 2015 6:52am
Quoting Yakashimatsu
%95 or %88 closes above or below than open. Then why we are not just martingaling London Opens ? .. It seams catching 10 pips with %85 success rate seems not that hard. Any logic answer on it ?
You just can't.
I know that in the modern world machines can do better than humans in some cases but, this is not something you can automate or make a system out of. It's down to understanding and keep learning and improving. There are too many variables that come into play. The more you trade the better you will be at trading. It's like being a painter, a writer or even a singer. Some are born with a natural talent, some need to work harder. Imagine writing your first book, it will be an absolute bore. No one will want to publish it, maybe not even the second but if you have passion, dedication and you put in the work you will be rewarded. You will know how to write a paragraph in the proper way, how to link the characters together, how to make it fluid and easy to read. These are all nuances that take many years to learn.
I've been trading for a long time, in the old days there was not much about charting. I still trade that way, I trade bonds. But they are all linked together. One moves, another moves also on the same end of the curve. Then again if some other bond is not moving accordingly,then that's my hedge. Futures give me the overall direction, I don't trade them outright. They give me a feeling and bias for the moves on the bond markets iandif someone like me is here trying to better understand how these futures move
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #209
  • Apr 18, 2015 7:00am Apr 18, 2015 7:00am
is because I know I can take something from other's posts. Especially Steven'.
Something, like maybe a little sentence, that can make something click in my mind to make my own trading better than what it already is. Some gold nuggets are here and some more will be written. Don't give up, don't cut corners, put the time and effort to get better at understanding. It will work out properly, you will succeed. It may take many years but if you stick to it you will be rewarded. And it will not be a machine doing it, it will be down to your hard work and nothing else.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #210
  • Apr 18, 2015 7:48am Apr 18, 2015 7:48am
Quoting hornet
{quote} You just can't. I know that in the modern world machines can do better than humans in some cases but, this is not something you can automate or make a system out of. It's down to understanding and keep learning and improving. There are too many variables that come into play. The more you trade the better you will be at trading. It's like being a painter, a writer or even a singer. Some are born with a natural talent, some need to work harder. Imagine writing your first book, it will be an absolute bore. No one will want to publish it, maybe...
Well said Michael!
Good weekend and if you want to throw us some knowledge of trading cash bonds, I'm all ears. Learning is truly limitless.
Regards
  • #211
  • Edited 11:50am Apr 18, 2015 11:01am | Edited 11:50am
Bullshit. Don't listen to that line of naysayer thinking. There are times when you must reject the mob mentality and explore for yourself what works for you. a semi-martingale is probably preferable though imo. People around forex factory have gotten to the point where they reject "martingale' , which is nothing more than the doubling sequence, out of hand and this is a mistake imo. you can double your pips after a loss too ya know. you don;t have to double either... there are milder sequences that can be a perfect marriage to certain strategies. you can simply increase your bet slightly.... intelligent money management can be done with a stop and reverse strategy if the strategy is good enough. you can blend those ideas of increasing your position and increasing your target upon each new trade.

What i read from your post is that you're thinking in terms of trade sets. GREAT! go with that if that's where the universe is leading you.

1. test to make sure your strategy never loses more than x times in a row with 99% accuracy. This is Vital. do you have this? if so, great.

Suppose that after a loss can you increase your position size slightly , lets say by +1/7 and also increase your target by 1/7, if you lose repeat... etc. would that make any sense? how many rounds can you go without a problem of too mush heat psychologically for you? just some ideas you can think about but not within the scope of this thread. point being, yes. you can work something out for yourself imo.

many folks that have posted on ff also recommend martingale only on a small account as a secondary high risk investment. not a bad thought at all.

these guys are far more successful in trading than me so far i presume, so do consider the source. OTOH, The truth remains the truth always.
  • #212
  • Apr 18, 2015 11:24am Apr 18, 2015 11:24am
The idea of martingale worked for me best in mid-Jap. and late U.S. sessions. When the big moves came to an end and the chopping phase started again.
Wednesday and Thursday are good days for that (the wick trades often back from the weekly candle).
April
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  • #213
  • Apr 20, 2015 4:42am Apr 20, 2015 4:42am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Well said Michael! Good weekend and if you want to throw us some knowledge of trading cash bonds, I'm all ears. Learning is truly limitless. Regards
Steven,
It is a bit difficult to explain what I do on bonds but I will show you a couple of grabs from Bloomberg.
Basically, what this is all about, is relative value trading. Buy a bond to sell another as a position on the curve. The curve might steepen or flatten. It is all based on yield differential.
You can do one against the other or you can do butterflies. Where you buy, for example the belly (in this case 2037) and sell the wings which are a longer and a shorter bonds compared to the belly.
You can see from the graph how the spreads move and positioning for rather big sizes, that range from 5 to 20 mil on average, you can understand how a small move in the yield differential can work out as a good amount in cash, both in profit and in loss obviously.
Being institutional stuff I do, I cannot get into the details of the strategy and the evaluation terms we use.
But let’s say that if I managed to stay on these markets for more than 20 years, I must be doing something right. J

My look at futures is thereby a bit of a “far away view”, I am interested into how to fine tune my understanding of futures, because it is something else to trade. So far they have been only a general indication of market moves but never needed to have a directional bias.
I am a keen learner, always looking at how to improve and increase my knowledge.

Hope this helps, even if only a bit
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The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #214
  • Apr 20, 2015 6:09am Apr 20, 2015 6:09am
Quoting hornet
{quote} Steven, It is a bit difficult to explain........
Thanks Michael!
I am currently sorting out my tax for Q1, but as soon as i get that out the way, i'll dig into this.

I appreciate the detail you've gone to here.
Regards
  • #215
  • Apr 20, 2015 6:53am Apr 20, 2015 6:53am
For example the btp 06/25 last week was the cheapest one within the surrounding bonds even though the 10yrs sector seemed a bit rich compared to 7y and 15y sectors.

see this fly for example of how it moved around 6bp in this past week
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The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #216
  • Apr 22, 2015 6:20am Apr 22, 2015 6:20am
Quoting Neio
"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick."...I only need to capture some of this range."
This reminds me of an old post of mine from years ago here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post5069201

When you take away all the fluff there is no such thing as a trend or a range, there is only movement and volatility.

Strong moves and weak moves. But around all this there is reocurring frequencies.
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  • #217
  • Apr 30, 2015 1:38am Apr 30, 2015 1:38am
yet unable to identify ranging or treanding period by using only single candlestick as reference
patience is a virtue
  • #218
  • May 4, 2015 12:45pm May 4, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting Neio
"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick." ""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post4690034 So there is an edge within a single candlestick. There are higher probability trades within a single candlestick....
Thank you for this thread, although its been staring every one in the face, no one has really thought about it.

It is true 95% or even higher price does move higher than the open.

People in this thread need to do the following research

1) What times of the day does the candle have the biggest range, and what is the average range with in the candle.

2) If your trying to decide direction, you may want to examine different methods, such as, if the h4 tf is trending UP, do you only look for pull backs on the h1, to decide which direction, and by doing do, how successful is this?

There is so much that can be explored, i am a binary options trader, so direction is more important to me than range, so if some one finds a way to predict 70% of the time, the direction, i will be more than happy to explore that idea.

Thanks for sharing.
  • #219
  • Edited 4:32am May 11, 2015 4:20am | Edited 4:32am
The Great Delusion

Dictionary: Delusion
1. A belief held in the face of evidence to the contrary, that is resistant to all reason
2. A false belief strongly held in spite of invalidating evidence (especially as a symptom of mental illness)
3. A fixed false belief that is resistant to reason or confrontation with actual fact

If you ever follow my posts, you would know by now that:

  1. I don't look at history
  2. I don't do back testing
  3. I don't draw lines, fib levels, don't draw patterns, S/R, pivots, S/D, etc...
  4. I don't do any technical analysis or fundamental analysis
  5. I don't predict future prices.
  6. I don't have a single clue when, where and I don't care

Clearly, somebody has lost the plot and is insanely deluded... The good news is that it is either you or me

I'm so deluded I can't see trend lines, pivots, fibs levels, unicorn patterns, S/R, etc...
Can someone please kindly point them out for me in the picture below:

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Can someone please kindly point out some Technical indicators , Time Frames and Candlesticks in the picture below:

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OK, I've had it!.... Who's the smart ass who took away the charts ???
Because there is no Fucking way I'm going to make money without all of these things.

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I know it was you Pipalicious.... Hand them over you bastard !!!

Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} This reminds me of an old post of mine from years ago here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post5069201 When you take away all the fluff there is no such thing as a trend or a range, there is only movement and volatility. Strong moves and weak moves. But around all this there is reocurring frequencies. {image}
  • #220
  • May 11, 2015 5:12am May 11, 2015 5:12am
Quoting CrucialPoint
The Great Delusion Dictionary: Delusion 1. A belief held in the face of evidence to the contrary, that is resistant to all reason 2. A false belief strongly held in spite of invalidating evidence (especially as a symptom of mental illness) 3. A fixed false belief that is resistant to reason or confrontation with actual fact If you ever follow my posts, you would know by now that: I don't look at history I don't do back testing I don't draw lines, fib levels, don't draw patterns, S/R, pivots, S/D, etc... I don't do any technical analysis...

Solutions ONLY!!!
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