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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #181
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:19am Apr 17, 2015 8:19am
Quoting skfx
British Pound futures-6B This is S/T trading. Selling short as the pound breaks down from a London morning bid (USD 'was' on the offer across the board but pulling back as we approach NY). It would seem i'm going against performance of the pound (Up on Tokyo and London), but in effect i'm not. With half cent offered (not tagged) and a flipped bid 38 and 28( that is twice the buyer FAILED to hold trade) with sellers holding buyers down, performance is shifting as the DX kicks out from short trade breaking a 32 offer and bidding atop of the mark....
Isn't this just like higher low and then a break and a lower low and break again ?
what static point of reference do we have here? to tell us the S/T trend is changing ?
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #182
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:30am Apr 17, 2015 8:30am
Thank you Yen futures!

6J-S/T trade..

Heading into NY open we had a bid yen through London trade. Yen is performing.
NY open and we await data out of Canada and the US (CPI's-tier 1). Will create volatility!

Initial trade out of NY open is offered
I let it trade pre-release and wait.
Don't forget young grasshopper.....
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Solid CAD and stable US CPI numbers will support.
Execution on hold till limit book normalizes.

We have traded down from the NY open and they offer it again on the spike out of the data and drop London!
Spike is offer 34 and bid 10.
We roll 10 downside.
I'm looking for shorts as we have rolled the spike bid 10 and failed NY open hold. I don't want shorts into handle! High risk!
Selling the upticks into Tokyo open and London. London needing to hold for shorts to pay.


I limit up on Tokyo open and get filled 200K.
I work an average here and limit up on the London open with another 200K ( Not filled. Shit happens...often!).
(I am working averages due to volatility, i am also lighter on trade).

Limits to liquidate i work an 86 (Yesterdays London open and NY pivot).
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Paid on the first 100k at 97.
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100K remains.......
Big buyer accumulates 95!
Limit re-positioned to 96.
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Flat
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  • #183
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:35am Apr 17, 2015 8:35am
Quoting hornet
{quote} Isn't this just like higher low and then a break and a lower low and break again ? what static point of reference do we have here? to tell us the S/T trend is changing ?
You have answered it yourself Michael!
Read between the lines in your question.

Regards
  • #184
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:42am Apr 17, 2015 8:42am
Quoting skfx
{quote} You have answered it yourself Michael! Read between the lines in your question. Regards
OBVIOUSLY THE STATIC POINTS ARE THE BROKEN LOWS....
BUT I HONESTLY TRIED THIS SO MANY TIMES AND NEVER FOUND MUCH CONSISTENCY.
THEN AGAIN....I WAS LOOKING AT CHART NOT AT NUMBERS

The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #185
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:45am Apr 17, 2015 8:45am
Quoting skfx
Thank you Yen futures!
NICE ONE !
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #186
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:59am Apr 17, 2015 8:59am
Quoting hornet
{quote} NICE ONE !
Thanks Michael!

You'll notice running through my thought processes, what i'm doing here has plenty of nuance. But you'll also acknowledge, that i am in effect, trading right there with the market.
With experience you'll get extremely efficient at doing it.
The trick is, don't rush it! Think it out.
Let them trade it.

Believe it or not, i'm only ever trying to answer two questions when i trade:
1. What side of the market now should i be on? Long or short?
2. What is the lowest risk trade on the 'right side' of market?

All the shit i've gone through (price(fluid), reference points(static) etc etc) in my previous trades, have been due to me trying to answer these two simple questions above to allow me to grind away at it S/T lol.
Unbelievable!
But could you image building an EA/system and trying to incorporate the nuance of trade into it? Not possible.


Regards
  • #187
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:03am Apr 17, 2015 9:03am
This Post / Thread give me more questions that answers.

What about finding where the price is going, how big is the move can be, then do you buy going out of the opening or you trade selling the move and waitting for a retrace, not sure if it only me but dont find it that useful

Not bashing either knowing this is good but how do you make money out of it?
  • #188
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:16am Apr 17, 2015 9:16am
how do you make money out of it?[/quote]

Buy high but not TOO high ---Sell low but not TOO low ..
Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #189
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:17am Apr 17, 2015 9:17am
Quoting MetroFX
This Post / Thread give me more questions that answers. What about finding where the price is going, how big is the move can be, then do you buy going out of the opening or you trade selling the move and waitting for a retrace, not sure if it only me but dont find it that useful Not bashing either knowing this is good but how do you make money out of it?
Metro, no offense intended here, but your last question is the exact reason why i hate and i literally mean hate, coming here too often.
If you're referring to the initial discussion on candlesticks and data points in candlesticks then yes, i agree! It's vague and lacks distance/substance.

But if you have read the ENTIRE thread (i get this feeling you haven't) and you stick to your question, then you need to be taken out the back and spanked repeatedly.

All jokes aside. Are you serious?

Regards
  • #190
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:21am Apr 17, 2015 9:21am
Quoting MetroFX
This Post / Thread give me more questions that answers. What about finding where the price is going, how big is the move can be, then do you buy going out of the opening or you trade selling the move and waitting for a retrace, not sure if it only me but dont find it that useful Not bashing either knowing this is good but how do you make money out of it?
SKFX has literally just walked you through it step by step in what is probably the best set of posts I've read on these forums. What more do you want? Put some fuckin effort in.
Money Talks, Bullshit Walks
  • #191
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:25am Apr 17, 2015 9:25am
an example on usdjpy 1M just now in NY open -- price breaks swing low (red) -- but cant hold- so BUY it
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Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #192
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:31am Apr 17, 2015 9:31am
Quoting Keyser_Soze
{quote} SKFX has literally just walked you through it step by step in what is probably the best set of posts I've read on these forums. What more do you want?
Keyser lol

He wants his bloody back rubbed!

Some people just don't believe it, quite simply because they themselves cannot do it.
Seeing someone else step up should inspire you to great things yourself. But instead, you let skepticism consume you and he will crush you.

Regards
  • #193
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:38am Apr 17, 2015 9:38am
Quoting HighFivve
an example on usdjpy just now in NY open -- price breaks swing low (red) -- but cant hold- so BUY it {image}
Nice trading HF. Well done!

I don't trade on MT4, but do they offer a setting where a time stamp(on chart) for executed trades is an option?
Maybe that is something they should add.
It's hard to work out from MT4 charts when trades were executed and how(LMT/STP) etc..

Regards
  • #194
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:40am Apr 17, 2015 9:40am
Quoting skfx
Seeing someone else step up should inspire you to great things yourself.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #195
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:45am Apr 17, 2015 9:45am
[quote=skfx;8212794]{quote} Nice trading HF.

thanks man--- For the great run down on whats important Here---
1. What side of the market now should i be on? Long or short?
2. What is the lowest risk trade on the 'right side' of market? you rock
Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #196
  • Edited Apr 18, 2015 8:50am Apr 17, 2015 9:54am | Edited Apr 18, 2015 8:50am
Quoting hornet
{quote} OBVIOUSLY THE STATIC POINTS ARE THE BROKEN LOWS.... BUT I HONESTLY TRIED THIS SO MANY TIMES AND NEVER FOUND MUCH CONSISTENCY. THEN AGAIN....I WAS LOOKING AT CHART NOT AT NUMBERS
Sorry Michael! I forgot this one of yours. I apologise.

Yes, exactly!
It's through numbers you'll get performance and also be able to perform S/T risk calcs.

If you look back to my 6J trade early NY, you'll see i was working short under London, but i really didn't want to see London open traded through.
Longs still wont drive it through there and sellers are using it to cap.
But 8412 is your mark for risk. If you do a short 08 you have approx. 4 ticks of risk. If you short 00, then you have 12.
But a short 84 atop handle sucks....it is hugely high risk to be doing that. A broken handle which goes offer will be lower risk but now 84 is your mark with a London open further back for the final nail.
You can then adjust your position sizing to accommodate your distance from your marks, volatility should also come into play.

Hope this helps.
Regards
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  • #197
  • Apr 17, 2015 10:00am Apr 17, 2015 10:00am
[quote=HighFivve;8212811]
Quoting skfx
{quote} Nice trading HF. thanks man--- For the great run down on whats important Here--- 1. What side of the market now should i be on? Long or short? 2. What is the lowest risk trade on the 'right side' of market? you rock

Gold nuggets!!!

Once you think about it your like..."Wow that make perfect logical sense"


Thanks for your input as well.

Great minds here!


Who has a session indy that plots each open as a horizontal line?
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #198
  • Apr 17, 2015 10:04am Apr 17, 2015 10:04am
[quote=HighFivve;8212811]
Quoting skfx
{quote} Nice trading HF. thanks man--- For the great run down on whats important Here--- 1. What side of the market now should i be on? Long or short? 2. What is the lowest risk trade on the 'right side' of market? you rock
Yep. And being a good trader is about being able to just say at times "I have no clue" and just wait for the times you do have a clue. Markets retrace to structure, and whether on a weekly chart or on a tick chart, there are candles that are key, that have recognizable characteristics and can be very profitable when traded with confluence.
  • #199
  • Apr 17, 2015 10:39am Apr 17, 2015 10:39am
[quote=Marillionpip;8212865]
Quoting HighFivve
{quote} Yep. And being a good trader is about being able to just say at times "I have no clue" and just wait for the times you do have a clue. Markets retrace to structure, and whether on a weekly chart or on a tick chart, there are candles that are key, that have recognizable characteristics and can be very profitable when traded with confluence.
Couldn't agree more M!
Sometimes i let them trade and they are just straight out crazy, they are all over the shop. I take my hand off the mouse and ease back in my seat.
Don't get sucked into shitty trade. London and NY overlap can be some of the hardest, messiest trade to nail down.

Regarding candlesticks (they are one way of displaying historical pricing).
I'm a piece of shit nobody and i don't trade candlesticks. If i'm a piece of shit nobody, do you think a somebody is placing huge weight on candlesticks and their patterns?
The market doesn't respond to candles.

We are trading the 'fluid'(price) against static points in trade that 'somebodies' actually care about.
From all historical pricing, some prices hold more weight than others. I have given you various prices that hold weight in previous posts.
You pick up heavily weighted prices by staring at screens for years. You'll see response and intent around these prices by money.

Regards
  • #200
  • Apr 17, 2015 11:09am Apr 17, 2015 11:09am
Quoting skfx
{quote}The market doesn't respond to candles. We are trading the 'fluid'(price) against static points in trade that 'somebodies' actually care about. From all historical pricing, some prices hold more weight than others. I have given you various prices that hold weight in previous posts. You pick up heavily weighted prices by staring at screens for years. You'll see response and intent around these prices by money. Regards
Boy has this thread really taken off. So many great idea's shared in here. Special thanks to skfx for all the information he has shared. It's really great stuff.

Amazing statement & I couldn't agree with you more.

The market doesn't give 2 sh**s about candle patterns/formations. When one forms it has a 50% of working and 50% chance of failing. Its as simple as that. Does this mean they are not tradable? In my opinion, No.
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