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The Really Useless Thread

  • #133,841
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:44am Apr 17, 2015 1:44am
Search for COT reports and look at commercials positions, they are market makers. Biggests banks in the world of which lots of them are linked with central banks.
  • #133,842
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:47am Apr 17, 2015 1:47am
Oh and yes, every move is planned 2-3 days in advance...
  • #133,843
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:50am Apr 17, 2015 1:50am
Quoting ws121
{quote} . ...we (me and those alike, aka the herd) always do, gamble or react to the charts moving and hope for some luck. I know it's long, but I'm so determined to unlock this puzzle. I'm struggling guys Not because I'm profiting or loosing, but I'm really desperate to understand. If this doesn't make sense or it's not that significant to you guys, ignore it, but please let me know that it's insignificant, before I go mad while thinking . Andrew
A can of worms.
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  • #133,844
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:51am Apr 17, 2015 1:51am
Quoting KzX
Oh and yes, every move is planned 2-3 days in advance...
Not 2-3 days i think way ahead ....

it could be weeks or months .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #133,845
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:05am Apr 17, 2015 2:05am
Quoting ws121
{quote} This might a very long comment but it holds lots of questions in my mind and any help and response would be much appreciated. I'm more interested in the hecking structure of the market at the moment. SO, one of the first principles (rules) I learned in trading is that market makers never use market instant execution, but always pending orders....
For a while I worked for one of the biggest market-makers in the FX world based in Zurich (operating globally 24 hrs a day). Not on the trading desk itself but in IT dev for the desk. I have some insight as what they do there. They are one of the few players large enough that in some circumstances they can move markets on their own.
Firstly, they are almost utterly unaware of retail traders. Their clients are other, smaller banks and larger institutions (government size). Your broker might in turn be a client of one of the smaller banks. The orders they deal with are multiple 10's of millions at a time and often in terms of yards (billion).

The desk makes its money by filling orders from clients. They offer constant quotes on the major crosses through the interbank platforms (and by telephone) then keep the difference between the bid and offer prices, the spread. The spread is very small but the amounts are large.
The desk doesn't have positions in crosses as such. They have a large pot of dollars, a pot of euros, a pot of yen, etc. then as a quote is accepted and a trade made, money transfers from one pot to another. If the amount in one pot (exposure) is getting too large they can swap it to other currencies on the interbank markets to rebalance. If the desk feels that eg. dollar demand will be strong later then they can try to build a greater dollar position ready to fill quotes later.

The desk is motivated to get client orders filled to earn spread & commission. Clients are attracted because the desk can use its power to get orders filled at better than market prices. Let's say a client places a big pending buy order 5 pips under the market. The desk (in collaboration with their colleagues in London & New York) can then starting selling to bring the price down enough to get the order filled.
You can often see this in action in the hour before London opens (known as Frankie hour) when the desks of the two biggest European market makers open in Zurich and Frankfurt. Let's say their clients are anticipating a dollar rise so they place buy orders under the market price. The market-makers then bring the dollar price down to get the orders filled during the relatively low liquidity before London comes online. Once the orders are filled, the market-makers start replenishing their stocks so the dollar price rises again, and continues rising when London comes in.
  • #133,846
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:09am Apr 17, 2015 2:09am
Quoting KzX
Oh and yes, every move is planned 2-3 days in advance...
There's no global conspiracy to plan market moves.
The desks do have strategy meetings before they take over each morning. The advantage they have is that the bank is in constant touch with their clients and the account managers will brief them as to what orders (flows) are expected.
So they might know a few days in advance that there will be future demand for eg. dollars
  • #133,847
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:21am Apr 17, 2015 2:21am
Quoting lux_interior
{quote} For a while I worked for .
Thank you, informative!
Fail better.
  • #133,848
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:24am Apr 17, 2015 2:24am
Quoting gatorinla
pa has been above 0775.. today we closed below/ the week close below is probably not bullish. although we may get to 088x/9x .. the close is what will count. tonight with the first leg to hit 0750 since high, and we did close below 0765.. another retrace leg may be 0720. when we broke 0611 (on the way down).. it made a norm at 0832.. the thing now as then is the larger tf are bearish.. and 0765 and 0775 are the reason.. now we have retraced from the lows. i would have prefered 0832.. it hasn't got there, before the -0765 close or i would be more...
and the normal plan was/is then to look for shorts after 0832. the reason i stuck with the larger closes was. since 399x these retraces were smaller and few made it to a 0832 like #. dilema explained here last week http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post8198000
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #133,849
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:31am Apr 17, 2015 2:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} and the normal plan was/is then to look for shorts after 0832. the reason i stuck with the larger closes was. since 399x these retraces were smaller and few made it to a 0832 like #. dilema explained here last week http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post8198000
I was tempted to short 832, didn't do it. Regret it a bit for the partial would have been done... but looking to short from higher up atm.
Fail better.
  • #133,850
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:34am Apr 17, 2015 2:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} and the normal plan was/is then to look for shorts after 0832. the reason i stuck with the larger closes was. since 399x these retraces were smaller and few made it to a 0832 like #. dilema explained here last week http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post8198000
399x or 799x?
  • #133,851
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:48am Apr 17, 2015 2:48am
Quoting KzX
Oh and yes, every move is planned 2-3 days in advance...
What I meant is that they together plan ahead
  • #133,852
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:49am Apr 17, 2015 2:49am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} 399x or 799x?
1.399x
Fail better.
  • #133,853
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:54am Apr 17, 2015 2:54am
Quoting lux_interior
{quote} There's no global conspiracy to plan market moves. The desks do have strategy meetings before they take over each morning. The advantage they have is that the bank is in constant touch with their clients and the account managers will brief them as to what orders (flows) are expected. So they might know a few days in advance that there will be future demand for eg. dollars
I know that it's planned in case of JPY but I won't share it here. I don't know about other currencies.
  • #133,854
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:17am Apr 17, 2015 3:17am
Quoting lux_interior
{quote} For a while I worked for one of the biggest market-makers in the FX .
Wow, are you sure you are talking about FOREX!!!!

Thank you for that, I had no idea it's like the way you describe. All the forex courses and books are then misleading information.
Well I'm aware of the real misguidance of the 2nd and 3rd chapters of forex courses and books (fundamentals and technicals chapters), but I believed the 1st chapter (intro to forex, what moves the market and how).
Well, at least now I know that everything I knew about forex was a total waste,,,,, but hey, I also know what doesn't work.
So I'll find that piece of puzzle,,,, for sure before I die
Thanks again for replying
  • #133,855
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:25am Apr 17, 2015 3:25am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} I am not sure about that for this session. 1.082x is wide open for a test since the roll but the real deal for the weekly close comes with key news later in NY. 1.080x only level to track for the european morning session. Expecting a very choppy range if we can't take the highs in the opening range ... sisse
A bit of a chaotic day across the board with the Bloomberg outage worldwide....

In any case, 1.082x easily tested but more importantly Euro run soft stops on the highs, cleaning the map for the news. Session pretty much over. Reports to settle the deal for the week in a few...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,856
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:31am Apr 17, 2015 3:31am
Quoting LarryDarrell
UJ: have a 118.57 target, might be a bit of a stretch in one go.
Took a while... Now looking at closes. I would like to short UJ again, from higher, if we get a daily close below 118.93

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Fail better.
  • #133,857
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:32am Apr 17, 2015 3:32am
Quoting KzX
{quote} I know that it's planned in case of JPY but I won't share it here. I don't know about other currencies.
You can pm me
Re-Incarnated
  • #133,858
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:43am Apr 17, 2015 3:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote}Euro run soft stops on the highs, cleaning the map for the news.
Can you please explain what you mean by " Euro run soft stops on the highs"?
Does it mean that it went up to hunt stop losses for shorts?
Thanks
  • #133,859
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:50am Apr 17, 2015 3:50am
Quoting ws121
{quote} Can you please explain what you mean by " Euro run soft stops on the highs"? Does it mean that it went up to hunt stop losses for shorts? Thanks
anyone please....
  • #133,860
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:00am Apr 17, 2015 4:00am
Quoting ws121
{quote} Can you please explain what you mean by " Euro run soft stops on the highs"? Does it mean that it went up to hunt stop losses for shorts? Thanks
It means what it means.

Price run stops at the intraday highs. I don't know if its hunt or not hunt, market simply clean the intraday highs and trade above it sweeping any soft shorts hands from 1.081x...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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