Fundamental Trading with a Directional Bias

The sunny island of Java - Indonesia

Hello mate,

Wow i believe its a nice place to visit one day. Actually, i myself came from the Philippines, that was 26yrs ago. hope one day i will go back there.
Anyway here's my email add: [email protected]

That's a very good lecture you just given..... actually that was my intention of doing. i read it sometimes in compass FX, they have tons of informative lecture and actually im still getting some emails from them.

Thanks a lot for the information.

hope you're enjoying your loads of pips in the sunny beaches of Java.

michael

Ahhh.... Kabayan.....i have alot of phillipino friends too.

Robot sent. Trade well mate.

Rudy

Hello Every ONE,

This is how i view the MARKET

Another one, and i consider myself one of the Sucker

How do you trade this?

Subscribed
cheers
hannele

Hi Bullbearies,

For some reason I can not pm you ?? Can you pm me ?

cheers
hannele

Learn how to trade with the institution.
that's the first pullback.
and i have a hits and miss experience with this at the moment, that is why i am glad to come across this thread because of the Fundamentals that is killing me.
My trading has no regard of the news that is why my account does not move forward.

Also greediness is one of my weaknesses, i like to force a 50 pips profit which is very extreme and it usually goes back on me with a vengeance and i keep knocking my head for being so greedy and plain stupid. anyway we learn as we go on. and i hope i can learn from you here too.

thanks for all your inputs and here they are very valuable.

and to JAKE you did a very good community service man. for sure you go straight to heaven. I salute your great benevolence. and Thank you.

Hi Verve,
what about this! will this help?

Last week we had a very 'different' week to what we've been used to over the past few months. We saw huge Dollar sell-offs, a lot of which attributes to the weak data we had on Tuesday in the form of Retail Sales and PPI. When this data did come in weaker than expected, the Fed then re-iterated that liftoff would be data dependent. Recently we've had some bad data come out from the US but the markets seemed to ignore it after the initial sell-offs. I believe the Fed re-iterating this comment caused a lot of money to come out of the US Dollar.

We also had a bad day for stocks on Friday as a real threat of a Greek default became present, and the effects on the global economy were mentioned.

Monday 20 April 2015

On Monday we have speeches from both the RBA and BOC. We should be looking out from both for hints about the next move with their interest rates. My guess is that there'll be more hints from the RBA, more than likely to the downside. Depending on the comments, this could set the tone for the rest of the week for these currencies, unless some data later in the week changes market sentiment.

Tuesday 21 April 2015

On Tuesday we have the RBA meeting minutes which could provide some more insight into whether we have another rate cut coming soon. The markets were expecting one a couple of weeks ago but the RBA surprised us by keeping rates on hold. If we get some dovish comments in then we can expect the Aussie Dollar to fall to the low 0.7600's again.

We also have some positivity expected for the Euro in the form of German Economic Sentiment. This could be a nice little trade to take 30 - 50 pips from before the news is released as it's expected to be slightly higher than previous.

Wednesday 22 April 2015

On Wednesday we have Australian CPI data which is expected to come in slightly worse than the last reading. This should give us a great setup on the Aussie Dollar pairs against stronger and safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen as bad data, especially in the form of inflation, will give the RBA even more reason to cut rates again.

Thursday 23 April 2015

On Thursday we have some positivity expected from the Eurozone again as we have Manufacturing PMI's from both France and Germany. These have been revised up and are still expected to come in higher, so this should give us a decent trade on the Euro pairs against weaker currencies.

We also have British Retail Sales data which is expected to come in worse than before. Retail sales data doesn't tend to have loads of impact on the markets but with the volatility in Sterling at the minute due to the upcoming UK election in May, this could help to push the British Pound lower against currencies such as the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar.

Unemployment claims from the US is also due out on Thursday which is expected to be slightly better than the last reading. We know that the Fed have been driling it into us that a rate raise is data dependent.

Friday 24 April 2015

On Friday we have Eurogroup meetings which is likely to contain conversation mostly about Greece and their ongoing financial problems. Worries of a Greek exit will weigh on the market and any comments we get from this meeting about Greece are likely to affect the Euro pairs.

We also have Core Durable Goods Orders from the US. This data piece has been a problem recently, moving into negative territory but it is expected to bounce back here, so this could weigh on the Dollar's strength for the coming week, helping to push the US Dollar further.

Summary

We are expecting some positivity from the Euro this week in regards to data, although problems with Greece continue to weigh on the joint currency so we must always trade Euro pairs with caution.

We'd expect to see more weakness in the Pound and Aussie Dollar due to continued volatility from the upcoming UK elections, and a threat of a rate cut from the RBA. It should be a great trading week, so good luck to all.

Last week wasn't a bad week again. We had huge sell-offs in the New Zealand Dollar as CPI came in negative once again, and the RBNZ actually spoke about the possibility of a rate cut. We also saw the U.S. Dollar fall as more weak data dented the greenback, with mixed performance from the Euro, although Eurozone finance ministers did announce that Greece would be getting no more aid until a full reform plan had been presented. On the other hand, it was reported that a meeting between Merkel and Greek PM Tsipras ended positively, sparking some gains in the Euro.

Monday 27 April 2015

Monday is a light day on the calendar with only the RBA Governer speaking at a banking and wealth summit in Sydney. We could get some clues about any interest rate moves which will affect the Australian Dollar as the markets are fully expecting another rate cut.

Tuesday 28 April 2015

On Tuesday our first event is the GDP reading from the UK. This is forecast to come in slightly worse than the last reading, although the previous has been revised up from 0.5% to 0.6%. This expectation though still continues the decline in GDP figures coming from the UK since the middle of 2014, so could be a great trade to short Sterling against stronger currencies, especially with the volatility of the UK Election which is coming very soon.

We then have some comments due from the BoC which could again give some clues as to what they're thinking of doing with interest rates.

We have CB Consumer Confidence from the US which is expected to be slightly better than the last reading, which could give the U.S. Dollar some slight support before.

Wednesday 29 April 2015

On Wednesday we have a preliminary CPI reading coming from Germany. This is forecast to fall into negative territory, as well as being 0.6% less than the previous reading. This could give us a great opportunity to short the Euro as Germany is currently one of the strongest countries in the Eurozone, and a big Greek lender. If weakness is seen in Germany, this won't give Euro holders much confidence.

By far the most important events for the week are the US GDP reading, and the FOMC Statement. For a start, we're expecting a huge drop in U.S. GDP, which again doesn't tie in well with the Fed wanting to increase rates. With the recent data readings from the U.S. too, I see no reason for the Fed to be hawkish on monetary policy, and I'm fully expecting them to be more to the dovish side as well as re-iterating again that a rate hike is data dependent.

This should give us a good standing to short the Dollar against stronger pairs at any strong support / resistance levels.

We also have the rate decision and rate statement from New Zealand. Although we're not expecting any movement on the rate at this meeting, we can expect some dovish comments from the RBNZ as the economy has been slowing down, as well as some dovish comments we had about a rate cut last week.

Thursday 30 April 2015

On Thursday we then have Monetary Policy Statement from Japan. We're not expecting any significant changes with their monetary policy this month.

We have Euro CPI which is expected to be better than previous, beating the -0.1% in March, coming in at 0% this month. If we don't have any major negativity from the Greek situation this could be a good opportunity to Long the Euro against weaker currencies. EURUSD and EURNZC could be a good trade for this if we have negativity from the Fed and RBNZ, respectively, on Wednesday.

Canadian GDP is also forecast to be worse than the last reading, but only slightly, although this could give us a reason to short the Canadian Dollar against stronger currencies.

Friday 1 May 2015

New month, and to kick us off we have a PPI reading from Australia. This is forecast to come in better than last month which could give us an opportunity to long the Australian Dollar.

We have Manufacturing PMI from the UK but this isn't expected to move hardly.

We then have ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. which is expected to come in better than previous. I personally think what happens here will depend on what the Fed say on Wednesday.

Summary

All in all, I'm expecting more weakness in the Dollar, maybe a pullback to key levels first, but because of both these risk events on Wednesday, it's looking very downhill for the Dollar in the short-term. This should be a focus of the week, as well as possible weakness in the New Zealand Dollar. Obviously there will be volatility with GBP and EURO because of the UK Elections and Greek situations.

Have a great week!

My views on EUR/USD

USD to Firm & Greece Pressures the Euro

"The dollar started the week on the defensive on Monday after more disappointing U.S. economic data reinforced expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will not hike interest rates any time soon" (Reuters)

It was below forecast but there is no change, in terms of US rate hikes coming probably by mid year. We are now out of Q1 which was impacted by the severe weather in much of the US and expect the key areas of employment, infaltion and consumer confidence to pick up. We expect a stronger dollar after the recent correction and view it as in a long term bull trend against all majors except the Yen.

There was no agreement with Greece and its creditors on Friday and its now running out of money. We now have the possibility now of a default, unless a solution is agreed quickly but ths doesn't seem likely at present. We expect the euro to sell off through 1.080 back to chart lows.


Rally a Sell

We have seen the euro rally on optimism about Greece but the rally is a sell and we expecta move down from curreny levels to 1.050, then 1.000.

The Greek problem is back in focus and we see no solution coming but even if we do see the Greek problem pushed forward, Euro zone has major problems in terms of growth - the eocnomy is facing recession and deflation.

The outlook for euro zone is bleak and there is unlikely to be a pick up in growth soon. the ECB's bond buying program wont work to stimulate the economy because - Interest rates are already low and the banking system to fragile:
The ECB will buy 60 billion euros ($67 billion) a month of debt until September 2016 but banks won't lend heavily in the real economy. They will keep money to shore up there balance sheets and seek higher returns in stocks.
The real problem in the zone in terms of getting broad based growth is - many countries will not make the structual changes needed and the ECB have noted this. The ECB's mandate is to bring inflation close to 2% but Draghi has already said, the measures he is using wont work without action from national governments:
"Problems are not only structural. Unemployment is high. Unutilized capacity is sizeable. There is a need for demand policies." (Mario Draghi)
Euro zone is in deep trouble at present and the zone faces a bleak future. The zones economy is slowing up - there is a lack of lending, high unemployment, slowing growth, the risk of deflation and the nations in debt need help but the ECB cannot save the zone without united political action but that won't be coming. The zone now faces a lost decade similar to the one Japan faced in the 1990s.

looking to sell Australian Dollar against stronger currencies ahead of the next rate decision, as the AUD is currently very expensive when a rate cut is being considered. Weakening economy too, what's other's thoughts?

A/U kept coming back to 0.79 levels and above. I still didn't get why it didn't respond to rate cut as expected.

@SakibFX As the AUD dropped ahead of the rate cut, because it was highly likely that a cut would happen, the rate cut was already priced into the markets. The rate statement that comes with the rate decision was then not as dovish as we expected it to be as Stevens basically said that the AUD was still strong against a basket of currencies and that commodity prices were the cause of a weakened demand from Australia. From this we can take that there is no real problem in the AUD economy, and investors would look to that and say that a further rate cut wouldn't be likely.

Also, with commodity prices improving recently, including iron ore which is Australia's main commodity.

Since the rate cut had been fully priced in, the statement now needed to be priced into the market. Less dovish, means the AUD is undervalued. It must appreciate.

These are the most important events every month. After they've happened, look to business news websites such as Yahoo Currencies News, Reuters, etc. and they'll give you a summary of what's happened, and why the market has moved the way it has. It will basically tell you whether they've been dovish, hawkish, more or less than what was expected and all of that. That gives you all you need to determine the direction.

We had a very busy week in the markets last week with two key events standing out: US NFP and the UK Elections. Sterling soared as Conservatives first were ahead in the Election poll and then won the majority over Labour and the rest of the political parties, something which nobody expected. USD recovered some of it's losses due to a pickup in NFP readings, although it was nothing to shout about.

Monday 11 May 2015

On Monday we have Eurogroup meetings to kick us off which will be centered around the Greece situation. Not really expecting anything significant here or anything to trade into, but I'd favor weakness as Greece are in a terrible state so I doubt that we'll have any good news from them yet.

We then have the BoE's bank rate decision and accompanying rate statement. We won't be seeing a rate change yet, and my guess is that the rate statement won't have much useful information either.

Tuesday 12 May 2015

On Tuesday we have Manufacturing Production from the UK. This is expected to come in slightly weaker than the last reading although I'm not expecting much movement on the market because of the more important data coming on Wednesday.

We then have Wheeler speaking from the RBNZ. We know that there has been discussion of New Zealand cutting their interest rate from the key 3.5%, currently the highest interest rate of all the major currencies. Depending on if we get any dovish comments from Wheeler, we could be looking at a sell on the New Zealand Dollar.

Wednesday 13 May 2015

Wednesday is an extremely busy day for the currencies market so I'll try to keep this short.

We have German GDP data first which is forecast to be worse. Unless we get a stream of positivity from the Eurogroup meetings on Monday, this should provide us with a strong Short set-up against stronger currencies such as the Japanese Yen, possibly the NZD depending on what Wheeler says, and the GBP.

GBP is the big hitter again this week as we first have employment data in the form of Average Earnings and Claimant Count Change. These aren't expected to move much compared with last month. We then have the Inflation Report from the BoE. This is expected to be re-iterate the fact that the BoE don't see any real risks of low inflation / deflation.

We then have Retail Sales data coming from the U.S. which the Core reading is expected to be the same as last month. The general reading, however, which includes automobiles, is expected a lot worse than previous. This could provide us with selling opportunities for the US Dollar.

New Zealand Retail Sales data is then expected lower than the previous reading which again could give us a strong reason to short the New Zealand dollar against stronger currencies as long as we don't get a surprise change from Wheeler earlier in the week.

Thursday 13 May 2015

On Thursday we just have US News, both forecast to be worse than previous. This is PPI reading and Unemployment Claims. These should set us up for more dollar sell-offs against stronger currencies.

Friday 14 May 2015

On Friday we have Manufacturing Sales coming from Canada. This is forecast to be much higher than last month, and moving into positive territory. This could provide us with a good Buy trade on the Canadian Dollar, even though the Canadian dollar is more affected by oil prices at the moment, which have started moving higher from March.

Summary

Overall, we're looking at more negativity for the U.S. Dollar which will give reason for investors to expect a more dovish Fed at the next meeting. GBP is mixed and I will be waiting until the data has arrived on Wednesday due to the limited deviation on the data points, and the rate statement on Monday. We could also see a sell-off of the NZD if Wheeler is dovish.

Have a great week.

By the way, I have a Trading View profile which I try to post some setups to located at http://tradingview.com/u/jakeparkin

Please feel free to comment on my setups, they'll link back to what I post here anyway!

Last week we saw the U.S. Dollar lose even more value, especially against Sterling, after even more weak data, pushing back expectations of a rate hike from the Fed. Cable touched the 1.58 level, rising from the mid 1.54's at the start of the week, but re-traced back to the low 1.57's to close. We also saw a drop in the Dollar Yen from low 120's down to 119, before moving back slightly higher to end the week.

We also saw major movements in the New Zealand Dollar as it lost tonnes of value at the start of the week over speculation about a rate cut in June and July, but then all it's losses reversed after a more upbeat Wheeler, and fantastic Retail Sales data.

Monday 18 May 2015

On Monday we don't have any major market moving news due to be released.

Tuesday 19 May 2015

We have a few risk events on Tuesday which could give us a reason to get involved in the markets. The major event is UK CPI which has been flat for a couple of months now and is expected to remain flat for this reading. There's a chance of it coming in lower than 0% as the BoE have consistently warned us about it, although a slight rebound in oil prices may help it stay flat or creep slightly higher.

We have some data coming from Europe in the form of German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is forecast to come in worse than previously. This could give us a good reason to short the Euro against stronger currencies such as the U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, and NZD and AUD. Talks last week with Greece weren't great either, so we would expect this to weigh on the Euro.

We have the New Zealand Global Dairy Trade figures due to be released. If we get another bad reading from New Zealand this could weigh on interest rate speculation yet again...

We'll be listening to the tone of Poloz later in the day to see if there are any comments regarding the recent move in oil prices and how it may affect monetary policy.

Wednesday 20 May 2015

On Wednesday we have GDP data from Japan which is forecast to be flat, although the last reading has been revised down. Won't be trading this but it will help us with whether to pair a currency with the Yen.

My guess would be that the BoE votes remain the same as inflation is obviously not high enough for a rate hike.

Wholesale sales is then forecast to move into positive territory and come higher than previous, which could give us a good setup to get long on the Canadian Dollar against weaker currencies.

FOMC Minutes is then due to be released. We know that the Fed said weak data in Q1 was transitory, so we would expect that to be reflected in their meeting.

Thursday 21 May 2015

On Thursday we first have mixed PMI's coming from Germany and France.

We then have Retail Sales from the UK. This is forecast to come in a lot higher than previously so should give us a great reason to get long on Sterling against weaker currencies, providing we don't get a terrible CPI reading on Tuesday.

We then have some U.S. data due to be released in the form of Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The latter is forecast to come in considerably higher than previously, with jobless claims near-on flat. This could give us reason to long U.S. Dollars ahead of time.

Friday 22 May 2015

Friday is a very busy day in the markets. First we have the Monetary Policy statement from Japan. This will likely give us a decent direction for next week if there are any major surprises, although Japan didn't reach their inflation target by the deadline that they set, and some people are starting to think they could start easing monetary policy again later this year if things don't pick up.

We then have CPI readings from Canada. This is forecast to come in a lot worse than previously, and with it being the Core reading, this will be looked at very negatively as the BoC have largely blamed oil for the reduction in the headline CPI figure. I'll be looking to sell Canadian Dollars against stronger currencies.

We then have U.S. CPI which is also forecast to come in slightly weaker than previously, which could give us good reason to Short the U.S. Dollar against stronger currencies.

Finally we have Carney, Kuroda and Draghi all participating in meetings in Europe to discuss employment and inflation. This will likely bring up talks on monetary policy, so is also likely to move the markets.

Summary

Plenty of CPI figures this week for us to get involved in, as well as a couple of Central Bank speeches. Overall, I'd be looking for more U.S. Dollar short positions and we could see Sterling gain further if the CPI data comes in higher that 0%.

Have a great week.

more please