Reflexivity in the USD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post8205715
FML! the moment I take a nap for a bit after being up around the clock is when dollar makes another leg down in Aud/asia which is usually very quite. No worries dollar still has not hit the 618 or 786 just yet. I will find an opportunity Im sure to finish this move out in London.

Called the whole dollar move lower when it topped out at 100 and was moving to 97 while EUR will strengthen on MONDAY and it has played out perfectly to the T. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post8201873
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post8205715
Now Dollar has reached the c wave hi/low 618% at 97.93 and is oversold now on H4. I am going to wait to end of day to see where we are at but I suspect this level down to the 786% 97.30 are perfect levels to get LONG DOLLAR and consider shorting EUR once more going into next week where Greece wil be at the front of the headlines once more to see if they default or not.

And like many here who have traded the EUR since this crisis started always remember that a finance minister or some other random party comes out with rumors that causes EUR to fall only to be rebutted by an actual decision making politician to refute them and EUR comes back up. This most likely will be the same banter next week and then the media will jump on this train with the fear mongering to reintroduce volatility next week.
Not a psychic about whether they will default or not just try to know PA and remember how many times false rumors or ‘wires’ come through that are unverified when it comes to Greece. Best of luck all next week.

EURfut is approaching a SELL ZONE at 1.08-1.0850
Also Dollar should base around these levels down to 97.30-20
Given it's Thursday I won't go long just yet until the levels above are reached. Will definitely be in before CPI release though

Reasoning:
CPI might surprise to the upside given the recent upward trajectory in several key commodities (dollar bullish/better CPI)
Oversold levels on RSI on H4 in dollar and EURfut once the above levels are reached.
The dollar is now resting on a major downward support line since its first top at 100.785
They are mini ABCD reversals that have started on Monday which have since completed.
Since that flash crash in Dollar several weeks ago we are in a mode of HL's and HHs still. This could be another one where we don't trade much lower within this channel. From a HF standpoint its better to go long at these levels near major support rather than Sell here given there will be many walls of orders to break lower.

I will be heavily long Dollar and SHORT eur once more once the above levels are reached or they get close enough before the next major move.
I will widen my stop loss given we are at crucial levels here for a long in dollar and short eur as there will be several false moves or stop out maneuvers in Asia or London.

EDIT i might just get short EURfut near the US close and Long dollar with a small position to build on overnight as we could see profit taking coming in.

"Prices moves first, fundamentals seconds" PTJ

I will have to use that as my header now. I used to watch his trader video every week before the markets opened. ITS SO TRUE/

Added you.

We are pretty much exactly where I was expecting us to trade and dollar is about close to test 786 key b wave hi.low and EUR is about read to touch the 618 b wave level
RSI on dollar OVERSOLD ON H4
RSI on EUR ALMOST OVERSOLD at 64 right now so not extreme just yet.

I am putting out a small feller trades at these levels in case we move higher into US but I am aware that we still could touch 786% on dollar and 618% on eur Either way this is will be a decent trade if the fibs hold up shorting EUR at this level and long dollar

Bot DX at 97.40
Sold 6e (eur) at 1.0831

Looking for better than exp CPI or just PROFIT TAKING on EUR going into US close given the major vol that will take place next week and its hard to be a serious bull with so much uncertainty. Off to bed now lets hope I wake up to a higher dollar and lower EUR.

Like I said its always great to wake up to green ticks. EUR bounced right off that 618 before its big drop. Dollar did the same with its fib
Moved everything to BE and looks like I will have to hold over the weekend. Great entry to far but it would be nice if dollar can finish above yesterday's US session close price which is acting as resistance at the moment.

Bot DX at 97.40
Sold 6e (eur) at 1.0831

Closed DX at 97.715 as its trading like shit right now. Id rather take 30 ticks with the contracts I have on then watch it come all the way back to breakeven to stop me out with nothing. I didnt stay up for London to get BE stopped out

EUR still open at 1.0831 but moved to BE we will see how it acts the last hour of trading. Hoping profit taking will come in on the last hour of trade.

Stopped out at BE on 6E. I am so happy now I took that dollar profit earlier today as I had a gut feeling it was trading like crap after it bounced that 786. It should of at min traded to yesterday's US high but could not even stage a rally to close above yeaterdays us close.
Did very well swinging this week to make up about 86% of the EUR loss I had a few weeks back.

Dollar is at a crucial level here. Its way oversold at this level but is now trading at yesterdays US low price and could possibly test that main RED LINE downward support but I still feel we could possibly hold that key 786 at 97.225 but will know on Sunday. Either way I am now flat going into the weekend.

Starting next week I will post in a new thread I created which will only last a week long to appease a new member who thinks martingale strategy is the best out there and thinks losing 100% of his account in one trade in ONE DAY without having mental or physical stop loss order is great money management. I said i would never post PnL anymore but happy to burn a new trader who is here to sell an EA without a decent track record. There are a few traders here in commercial who I would gladly let themm manage some of my money as they have the same approach but not those who thinks martingale strategy with NO STOPS EVER are a great money making approach.

Have a wonderful weekend all and I will be on skype so hit me up.

Will be getting long Dollarfut these next couple days and SHORT EUR FUT for the following reasons.

US equities selloff on friday sparked by China coming down on certain margin accounts will cause further liquidation short term which will spill over across US equties. Long term still bullish Shanghai at 4400

This week is prime for volatility given possible Grexit and continuation selling in equities later this week. Tech is up this week for earnings and if a few disappoint this market will be testing 2030 before Friday.

Usually when their is panic or uncertainty the main vehicles for safety are treasuries, dollars, francs, and yen. Lejt see where the flow takes place.

TECHNICALS.

On Friday dollar had a nice 4hr test bar tap the major support to find a base. It looks prone to go higher if we hold this level.

Dollar is oversold here and so farthat key 786% hi/low wave is holding up but will wait for MONDAY TRADE for further confirmation.

EUR is a bit overbought here has, and found resistance at that major fib retrace also. Given the uncertainty this week and the false rumors that will hit twitter and wires expect the market to not be heavily long or short until an actual announcement. Take what the market gives you this week and set stops tight as we all know how ridiculous finance ministers and randoms are in creating false headlines thus causing false spikes.

Levels to watch on dollar 97.25 a 4HR CLOSE on this will see dollar trade to 96.69 but will also bring up the theory of a H&S where the left should is already prevalent, Head (set last week) and a possible right shoulder in the weeks ahead. I am in the camp though current level in dollar holds and we trade up in the next day or two while EUR finds sellers.

I would go long Dollars right now but I'd rather wait to see how US trades before going in heavy. US equities could see a small bounce on Monday before a continuation lower.

Will go short EUR this week if it break and confirms at Friday's US session low price at 1.0742.

sitting on my hands going into US and best of luck to everyone in this crazy week we will experience. STAY AWAY FROM MARTINGALE!!!!

I'm tempted to say that Grexit will not happen mid-week. I feel it is the sort of event where the Greek banks close on a Friday, and then do not open on a Monday. So the w/e of 2nd/3rd May is my favourite at the moment.

Equally the Greek banks could be forced to not open on any day that the government wished.....

Good points. I wonder if we have a further extension but it seems everything is at a boiling point right now considering the language and bravado coming from all sides.

This is why you wait for confirmation!!! was gong to go short as soon as the 4hr closed below but ended up not taking it as we saw buying coming in below 1.0742. This was the US session low on Friday which was mentioned on Sunday. Patience is the name of the game for high probability setups.

Still flat a the moment, but will dive in once we have some action. Dollar is acting like I thought it would but waiting for a strong close for overnight long.

will be back next week. Family matters to tend to.

Dollar should be strong most of this week per my post on SUNDAY. Best of luck all this week.

And you

I should be back home next week and posting again. I have been away from trading as a family member is really sick so that obviously has been my main concern. Hope everyone has been rocking the last couple weeks

Its good to be back to a normal routine after staying in hotels most of this last month tending to family matters. I have received several PM's about futures trading vs. forex trading and how to get started which is flattering and I will ponder the best way to explain it in simple terms the next coming days.

Other than that will wait until Wed for setups as I have missed alot and need to refocus on screen time before clicking the mouse

What a fading opp we could see in US session to short Dollar and long EURO's. Last night London saw a strange spike lower on a ECB loggerhead statement that is well known. Anyways, I let price action dictate the movements and leave the is this a top or bottom for others.

Looking for dollar to fail here at 95.28 for a move lower for TP1: 94.66 TP2: 94.28
Once this level fails I will just be long mrkt on EUR fut at current price.
This is a major move and way overbought on short term level for dollar which will need for it to consolidate lower before possibly resuming trend higher.

EUR is nearing major support that I don't think will be broken today given the major move overnight and RSI is way oversold here. We will see what price action has to say.

NO major wave setups that I like to trade for reversals so I will just have to play ranges today it looks like.

Entry looks good as any to long EUR here. in at 1.1140 with 20pt SL. just below main support to hopefully hold up during this session for reasons stated above. Looking for 1.1217