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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #134,421
  • Apr 16, 2015 4:17am Apr 16, 2015 4:17am
Quoting Guitarbloke
USD/JPY D1. Looks to be trading in a box like fashion on daily. My S/R level might be a bit different to yours Bill. That 4H pin is probably good for a few pips, but it's also trading into BRN 119.000. I might wait till price falls to bottom of range and look for PA to go long. EDIT: Sorry Dan. You mean the 4H bullish PB at bottom to go long? D1 and 4H charts attached below how i see it. {image} 4H {image}

Yeah, I'm done with her... Grabbed my pips and ran.
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #134,422
  • Edited 6:58am Apr 16, 2015 4:55am | Edited 6:58am
USD/JPY H4. Buy limit Orders set if/when price retraces. PB and BUOVB off support and BRN at bottom of trading range/box.

EDIT: Order triggered. I do believe it's a DBLHC too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #134,423
  • Apr 16, 2015 4:58am Apr 16, 2015 4:58am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Yeah, I'm done with her... Grabbed my pips and ran.
I'm in long.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #134,424
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:44am Apr 16, 2015 5:44am
GBP/USD D1. Nice to get a few pips back from this pair after giving some away yesterday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #134,425
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:10am Apr 16, 2015 6:10am
Hi Jim!Tell please, whether the market has changed greatly over the last 10 years? Does it make it more difficult to make money or things are like in 2005? Thank you.
  • #134,426
  • Apr 16, 2015 7:09am Apr 16, 2015 7:09am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} I personally would not touch it unless it pushed below the daily open 119.145 that's my line in the sand for bias and confirming on the hr Just me.
Thanks for your comments, and GUITAR. Hit my TP just, but yes it was a slightly risky trade. Cheers
  • #134,427
  • Apr 16, 2015 7:23am Apr 16, 2015 7:23am
Quoting kevins
{quote} Let me chime in here as well. ANY trade calls that come from an "option" perspective, will absolutely be done only from the Daily and Weekly time frame, so there will be ample time to identify when and where to adjust. Some trades require ZERO adjusting. Open, close, book profit. Here is one such trade that will expire this week that only required one adjustment. Opened on 3.24, adjusted on 3.25, will expire this week on 4.17 for a 2.2% net gain. Nothing flashy, but safe, simple, and profitable. {image}
Thanks for the comment. I absolutely have no clue what I'm seeing on that chart outside of basic candle info, S/R etc. I'm guessing gaps come into play in these markets. In any event, I'm stoked about this section of content over at the PF and learning all I can about options.
  • #134,428
  • Apr 16, 2015 8:33am Apr 16, 2015 8:33am
CAD/JPY H4 Break out trade. 1st. target hit. Now BE. 2nd order free trade. Plenty of room to move. Let's shoot for the moon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #134,429
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:39am Apr 16, 2015 9:39am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hey FXBat. My thinking was that H4 pin bar didn't look the strongest and price hadn't reached support at 0.9300 level, even though price had reacted and gone north from that PB level on 2 occassions before which along with a BUOVB was my reason for trading. So i waited to see if PA would fall further also enabling a tighter stop loss. I entered on the H1 chart AT 0.93700 when i felt price was going to turn around. Locked in a small profit of 30 pips and 20 pips before being stopped out. PA is now at the 0.9300 level so i'm watching for price...
makes sense. thanks a lot for the explanations.
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #134,430
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:00am Apr 16, 2015 10:00am
USD/JPY H4. 1st. TP hit profit taken. BE. Let's sit back and shoot for the stars.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png17415A.png Size: 40 KB
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #134,431
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:01am Apr 16, 2015 10:01am
Quoting FXBat
{quote} makes sense. thanks a lot for the explanations.
No worries friend. Good trading.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #134,432
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:02am Apr 16, 2015 10:02am
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi Kevin, Do you have a breakdown of approximately what percentage of your trades are option writing, call/put spreads, verticals, calendars, diagonals, etc.....? Just trying to get an idea of what the majority of your trades are. Looking @ the picture, I'm guessing you sold out-of-money call & put (naked or spreads) on 3.24 then adjusted it on 3.25 as a result of the drop? Thanks
Of course srt. Approximately 85% of all my option trades are writing spreads (theta positive, selling premium). I do intermittently play some small earnings or news events, but the majority is always going to be sellling options. I have just a few core trades that I do month in, month out, but NEVER anything naked, and a combination of vertical spreads, butterflies and condors.

The graph I displayed was actually a debit put spread on 3.24 as I was anticipating a sharp drop in the coming days. The timing was perfect, although I didn't fully expect the magnitude of the move down on 3.25 the very next day. The adjustment on 3.25 essentially converted the original directional debit spread into a medium size, risk free credit spread. Game over, and just wait for 1220 or 1280 to get hit.

Watching paint dry is quite boring for most traders.
  • #134,433
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:08am Apr 16, 2015 10:08am
Quoting Donkey
{quote} Thanks for the comment. I absolutely have no clue what I'm seeing on that chart outside of basic candle info, S/R etc. I'm guessing gaps come into play in these markets. In any event, I'm stoked about this section of content over at the PF and learning all I can about options.
No worries bud, you will have all kinds of clues to what you are seeing soon enough.

Gaps do come into play, but that is more prevalent on the individual equities not so much the indices. RUT, SPX, NDX are the favorites I like, and gaps are a non-issue 99.9% of the time. That 0.01% of the time is if a gap hits you close to expiration.

The gray box I draw gives me a good visual image of where I am "safe" and "profitable". The larger I can make that box via adjustments, the better off the trade becomes. This particular cycle only returned 2.2% on margin, however, if RUT would have dropped anywhere under 1240 (highly possible, just didn't happen this month), then the return would have been in excess of 21.5% for the month. I will take those odds all day long. You only need to have one or two months a year of that happening to make for a stellar year, and in the mean time, you have 8 or 9 months of 1, 2 or 3% returns each month. That in my book comes out to a lot more than 25% a year which pretty much decimates most mutual fund managers.

Game on...
  • #134,434
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:21am Apr 16, 2015 10:21am
GBP/JPY H4. Break out of 177.000 BRN key level with uptrend. 1st. TP hit. BE. Free trade running.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #134,435
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:28am Apr 16, 2015 10:28am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Watch the Support line at 7500....look for signs of a break below or will it bounce up to trendline....if in doubt stay out. Good luck
Thanks Turnip,I seen PPZ on BRN but I think that we have break it recently so it's not so strong now. Have SL but it's on demo.
  • #134,436
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:50am Apr 16, 2015 11:50am
USD/CAD ..... i'm definitely heading back to page 1 of thread guys.
Got to read those posts a few more times.

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  • #134,437
  • Apr 16, 2015 12:10pm Apr 16, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting Nazarm
Hi Jim!Tell please, whether the market has changed greatly over the last 10 years? Does it make it more difficult to make money or things are like in 2005? Thank you.
This is an interesting question and definitely something that I'd like to know considering Jim has been doing this for years. If you read Zero Hedge, you hear a lot about how the big algo trading firms like Virtu (1 losing trading day in 5 years or something) manipulate markets all the time. That all started to come about since 2007 I believe? Anyway, I do too wonder how this has changed for the old school traders.
  • #134,438
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:07pm Apr 16, 2015 1:07pm
JPY pairs keep running...

CADJPY

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CHFJPY

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GBPJPY

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  • #134,439
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:07pm Apr 16, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting kevins
{quote} Of course srt. Approximately 85% of all my option trades are writing spreads (theta positive, selling premium). I do intermittently play some small earnings or news events, but the majority is always going to be sellling options. I have just a few core trades that I do month in, month out, but NEVER anything naked, and a combination of vertical spreads, butterflies and condors. The graph I displayed was actually a debit put spread on 3.24 as I was anticipating a sharp drop in the coming days. The timing was perfect, although I didn't fully...
Really looking forward to this. Already setup my TOS paper account just to start getting familiar with the interface. I know my way around a chart for trading forex etc, but options is definitely something new for me. Unfortunately since I'm from Europe, TD Ameritrade don't offer live accounts. So yea, as you mentioned I'll try testing with a delayed TOS platform while executing with a different broker when ready.

It's also good to hear more of a breakdown of the types of trades you make. From what I've been reading/watching it definitely seems like the right thing to be doing is selling premium with writing spreads. You mentioned you never do naked trades. This I definitely understand and I think (depending on our account size) most of us wouldn't be allowed anyway correct? Don't most options broker who offer level 3 options need one to have a substantially large account to cover this? You can make a lot of money with naked options but also lose a lot! Anyway (forgive my knowledge, not totally clued up) but we should be allowed to do this with things like covered calls and is this something you're teaching with what you already mentioned? I also believe for these strategies again it needs to be approved by the broker at level 1 or 2?

Cheers!
  • #134,440
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:44pm Apr 16, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting rdv
{quote} This is an interesting question and definitely something that I'd like to know considering Jim has been doing this for years. If you read Zero Hedge, you hear a lot about how the big algo trading firms like Virtu (1 losing trading day in 5 years or something) manipulate markets all the time. That all started to come about since 2007 I believe? Anyway, I do too wonder how this has changed for the old school traders.
obviously not James but i've been trading for over 13 years, and it's the same stuff now. The differences are in some of the other things like execution, spreads, brokers. But the dynamics are the same to me. If anything easier in terms of barrier to entry is so easy , flexibility is better, pricing is more accurate, competition is higher making the playing field more even etc

The people who usually get hurt year in and out by market "changes" are black box type methods that are curve fitted to historical markets. Markets are ever evolving and changing but what I love about price action is that its built into how you analyze to be flexible with those markets. I don't have to trade a market or I could begin to trade a market i've never traded when conditions are appropriate. So if the eur/usd disappears in the next few years i'm not scrambling to come up with a new "system" on a different pair

Of course it's not the only way to trade but i assume most here reading this are interested in the way we do and it's just to give some confidence

Trading after all these years for me comes down to just a few things. Being picky, being consistent, managing my risk

Just my thoughts

Mike
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