Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

You're welcome matey!

Here's the 6N (Kiwi futures)
Not traded due to posting. See what happens when you devote too much time to helping others lol. You miss out yourself. My wife won't be happy. No new shoes this week.

Regards

Just to finish off this roll of posting and leave you guys with it.
Your biggest issue in terms of profitability will be, yourself.
You master yourself, and you can do anything!

It'll help that someone shows you from their experience and gives you knowledge, but they cannot manage, you.
Not many are cut out for this, in fact i would say less than 10%. Many reading this just wont make it,that is fact and that is the reality of it.
It's shitty, but it's the way it is.

All the best to everyone and i hope you all make it!
I'm done here for a while.
Regards

OPS !, was there a pullback to value price though?

do these other lines matter at all?

...

BTW Steve,

thanks for the time spent here trying to help myself and others.

And I do feel sorry about your wife's shoes

Regards,
Michael

hornet you've lost me.
Define 'value price'.
I am assuming you mean value(highest traded volume at one price), that being 7610. We did flip that and tagged underside just prior to the run at the handle and dump.

Realistically, the Kiwi futures were bidding atop 76 handle pre-NYO. New York dropped the high London bid(76 handle) and that happens to be also NY open.
Change in performance here?
New York needs to hold that handle and offer the broken bid for this to trade soft and pay sellers.

7564 fills pocket underneath (back to traded volume). Then 7550(half cent), London open further down.
Black ball top pocket!

Regards

No worries Michael.
I won't forget your name btw.
I am one of 4 boys. I have two younger twin brothers. In 2006, Michael(the oldest of the twins) died from heart failure while plastering in the Gold Coast of Australia.
He was 21, with no health problems. You just sometimes cannot see it coming.

My wife will get over it hahaha. She'll tell you she won't, but she's nice.

I love helping people and traders, but i find when i get going i do nothing else. It's like a black hole, it just sucks you in and your time goes with it lol
I don't want to sound like an ass here, i don't mean to be. I have only myself to blame.

Whatever i leave, i leave. I walk away when i have had enough.
I haven't been doing this long, only 12 years now. I'm still a dumb ass, but i'm a better dumb ass than a year ago. In another year, i'll be a better dumb ass than what i am now.
I spent the first 5 years going around in circles wondering whether it could be done at all.

US missing again top tier data. USD offered.
Caution too, prior to news releases. Levels my get smashed on huge misses/hits on numbers. You may have big money pegged down on levels but if they've stripped the market back, there's a chance the levels won't hold. We all know that though(a caveat on my previous posts).

Regards

They may get attention.
From my experience trading short-term Michael, the later the better. It's easier for a trader to remember what happened 20 mins ago rather than 2 days or weeks or months ago.

Notice price at #1 responding to a previous bid/offer level from yesterdays trade. You see from the uptick today at that level, we KNOW there were buyers there. On the way down through that level though, it went straight through #2.
What does that imply? Quite simply, there are no buyers willing to do that anymore. We have this asset under-performing and now buyers don't want a bar of a previous solid bid.
Notice how the market trades after going through that broken bid. You have big money selling upticks. When it's on the canvas, they won't let it up.
When you start getting paid on a move and you're big money, you're likely to do exactly the same thing going forward.
Why? Because you've been getting paid.

Hope this helps.
I'll send one more post through regarding nuance of trade as it plays out and how to go about thinking it out. The market is fluid and it's ever changing, we likewise must trade it so.
Regards

Excellent posts skfx!!!

I will break trade down and look at 6N(Kiwi futures), just due to having banged on already about it.
You could class this as hindsight trading, but i work the market live like this all the time. I go about it the same way. It's a framework, but it's fluid.


Coming into NY open, we have had the USD under pressure through London and a bid in the NZD.

I know its bid for several reasons (Obviously just looking at it anyone can tell, but i need detail for confidence in trade and points for execution):
1. We've picked up every open(Sydney, Tokyo, London).
2. Buyers have been breaking the offer(sellers) and chasing liquidity topside.
3. Buyers holding bids.
4. USD (DX) under performer across the G10
5. US rates(pricing) has picked up Globex and continuous bid through London. That means yields have been falling which will work against the USD.

On initial inspection i'm looking to long the NZD.
My first thought is: What could get in the way of a kiwi that has been performing well?
Mostly, it'll be a short list of things:
1. Flow driven ex...terrorist attack/war/Ebola/Assassination on the president etc etc etc (You should be monitoring live news if you're serious about your trading).
2. Economic releases and CB speak.
3. Dealers/institutions (Come online and decide to take profit or run it back).

I let it trade, i'm in no rush. I'm looking for the market to FAIL at doing something.
Patience is power.
Patience is not an absence of action;
rather it is "timing"
it waits on the right time to act,
for the right principles
and in the right way.
― Fulton J. Sheen

The initial move is down out of NY.
NZD is on the offer.
Don't forget young grasshopper, we have........

News released and US misses AGAIN(this is getting habitual) tier 1 and 2. This won't help the sellers out of NY.
Buyers break the offers on the release at 7590 and they run through the handle(Remember: liquidity around news releases can be ridiculously thin-see UST 10s below just prior to an NFP release. This can/does happen in spot too, you just won't see it. The limit buy/sell side in regular trade averages 2k-3k per level).
This is why you may peg a level as something to work but if it's illiquid it won't mean too hoots.


So we have a miss from the US and a broken offer at 7590 and a run through the handle picking NY open back up.
What am i working with here?
I like longs but i like them above 7600 and i don't want to initiate fresh longs into 7610/15(big sellers working levels there).
The blue numbers give me a framework for decision making.These will be a combination of opens/bids/offers/00(50).
Aside from that they will give me a running performance on the NZD.

As of writing this i'm watching the NZD roll the handle after offers at 7610/15 hold and sellers work through bids lower. We are caught in directionless choppy trade as we run NY open back and forward.
These type markets won't pay you in spades.
You'll need directional trade where you can continuously work bid side/offer side and add to positions. (If you want to make good money quickly, just reverse a typical retail blowout. That would be doubling down on a move against you and you just never know when to stop).

London trade is better than NY trade thus far.
I find by experience that while London and NY are both on they just fight over prices. Better most times to get London offline and then NY will run.

Anyway, that is an example of thinking it out as it plays out. Tough with the black and white print, but i cannot do much about it.
Regards

Thanks Bill and LITE!

As long as you can take something away from it to add to your trading then all is well.
Regards

I meant the price you value as to be good enought to get in.
Don't know what definition you might have for it.
Sorry for the confusion

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oh well ok then let's see if I can make any sense.....

Here is Bund futures (going opposite way than BTP futures). Obviously going opposite because of the Greece situation. Euro periphery is a bit under the weather lately after a very strong performance in the past months, with QE on the cards and then happening. Spreads between core and periphery is widening again and will continue unless positive news out of Greece.

BUND
1. closed strong bid yesterday
2. lower open but price is moving up slowly
3. break of yesterady's high shows want of continuation for the move but some offers still there. nevertheless bids hold the 160 handle
4. no one is willing to sell anymore and price slices through yesterday's high

entry 160.05 (NY high) and 1:3 rr in the bag at 10 in the morning

what happens the rest of the day? do I still look for buying opportunities ?

Ok on value hornet, i understand.
I hate the word myself lol. I just personally feel that market just never really finds value. Proof in that it never stops ticking.
But aside from that agreed.
I won't get into a debate on value hahaha

To answer your question, if your a day trader you can trade all day.
If you look at your chart the buy side started to lose its wheels around 60.30 (14:00)
60.30 was offered London lunch but on the way back into the broken offer buyers failed to hold the bid. Really buy side was completely broken on a roll through 60.20 (14:30)
You can see money is working every .10


Are you an institutional trader? You have Bloomberg that's all.
Regards

It was a question for all traders here.

Risk:reward is nice when it works. But the reality is it often chops around so I'm faced with many small losses and it's better to use a compounding factor.

And now you lost me......
why is it AGAINST trade buying the break at red line. Bias is up, we've been shown by price that it wants to go further.
If not there where is the best place to enter ?

Yes, BONDS, at times I look at futures.
I need to refine my entries a little

Sure A-O, no problem. That can happen.
Best to avoid the chop and you can do that by trading feedback.

If you have static points and fluid is rolling your static points, that's the market telling you to trade less and trade lighter. No one wants to get caught in the chop. It's ugly and the quicker you pick up on the condition, the better.
Regards

And of course this can happen. Where the market just sticks its finger up at you. Queued 1 back(approx.) from fill(yes it does happen but thankfully not often).
You can do all the right things, but if you cannot get it on and execute, you don't get paid.

Same principles as previous posts and same process of thought.
Yen futures this time around-6J.
These are all S/T trades, firing between bids/offers intra-day.
Regards

Sorry hornet!
No,you're correct!
Preferably, access to orderflow where you can see big money icing/working the bid above the break.
If you see a big buyers accumulating above the broken offer holding trade, then he is your 'lean'.
For a break to stay a break we need buyers holding it, supporting trade.

I'm getting fatigued, my bad.
Trading and posting is a sin.

Have a good evening and enjoy the bund.
I used to spread bund/bobl/schatz years ago till the CB ruined the short-end. Total waste of time the 2's these days.
Spread the US treasuries too.
Now i just chase whatever is on offer. I stick to the rates and FX, not so much an equity man.

CB's have broken trade completely. It's messy these days but you have to carve out what you can.
Regards

British Pound futures-6B
This is S/T trading.

Selling short as the pound breaks down from a London morning bid (USD 'was' on the offer across the board but pulling back as we approach NY).

It would seem i'm going against performance of the pound (Up on Tokyo and London), but in effect i'm not.
With half cent offered (not tagged) and a flipped bid 38 and 28( that is twice the buyer FAILED to hold trade) with sellers holding buyers down, performance is shifting as the DX kicks out from short trade breaking a 32 offer and bidding atop of the mark.

Why is performance shifting and why am i selling?
Buyers have held all marks on the way up(see blue numbers on top chart). Seller just cannot break the buyer down.
But a rolled 38 bid and then AGAIN 28, things aren't looking so fresh for the buy side. Remember, seller couldn't break them down, now they are folding and we have patterned failures. Fresh initiation and then light liquidation from London longs pulls Pound down.

If you want to make your life easier just sell on weakness and buy on strength.
You'll see on this particular trade i'm selling weakness, when you do that, you get paid 9 times from 10.

Regards

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