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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,461
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:50am Apr 16, 2015 5:50am
Quoting alexpi
GU reached my TP and sell limit, yen weakness is the only reason i could hope for for my TP on GJ now and further pound strength will put me out of GU... I'm split on whether to hold further... Mpt why do you think this is as far as it goes and not the 177.9-178 area?

I'm not saying it WILL hold. I'm saying that if this a correction completion it may not hold. We have to wait.
  • #10,462
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:52am Apr 16, 2015 5:52am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Because 178 plus is a bullish up trend beginning and assumes that 175 was the bottom. Here would be completion of a correction from 175 which took the form of an expanding triangle and rising wedge to complete. We will see if it holds
Not sure why you think that 178+ is the start of a bullish uptrend? It hit 179 on the 7th,8th, and 9th before falling back down. the 179 barrier is still there to be broken, if this can get that far. I'd rather say that we've reached the end of the bearish 9th and 10th of last week, after which we put in three very bullish looking Daily candles, and now it's time for some decent gains back up towards 179, but I wouldn't say we are beginning a new bullish phase longer term, not yet anyhow.
  • #10,463
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:56am Apr 16, 2015 5:56am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} THAT makes more sense. I mentioned to FX-Ray a while back that all GBP pairs tend to reverse at the 76.4% level.
whatever pair/index you trade, 76.4% is a biggy, as is 61.8%. But you've also got to look at where they are vis-a-vis pivot points and moving averages to get a better reading of which one traders are most likely to target.
  • #10,464
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:58am Apr 16, 2015 5:58am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I'm not saying it WILL hold. I'm saying that if this a correction completion it may not hold. We have to wait.
That makes sense

Decided to get out of all positions and simply observe and learn for now
  • #10,465
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:59am Apr 16, 2015 5:59am
Quoting cat
{quote} Not sure why you think that 178+ is the start of a bullish uptrend? It hit 179 on the 7th,8th, and 9th before falling back down. the 179 barrier is still there to be broken, if this can get that far. I'd rather say that we've reached the end of the bearish 9th and 10th of last week, after which we put in three very bullish looking Daily candles, and now it's time for some decent gains back up towards 179, but I wouldn't say we are beginning a new bullish phase longer term, not yet anyhow.
Simply because it is. 178/179 retraces back into about here/176 and renews the medium term up trend.
  • #10,466
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:07am Apr 16, 2015 6:07am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Simply because it is..
Wow that's arrogant! this pair obviously answers to your bidding!
  • #10,467
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:08am Apr 16, 2015 6:08am
Hi All,

That's some great information. It fits in nicely to what I see as well..

My main concern was the fundemental issues that could arise from all the high impact news due out at 1:30.. Would you hold the longs through these news events with tight or lose stops?
  • #10,468
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:12am Apr 16, 2015 6:12am
Quoting Talzus
Hi All, That's some great information. It fits in nicely to what I see as well.. My main concern was the fundemental issues that could arise from all the high impact news due out at 1:30.. Would you hold the longs through these news events with tight or lose stops?
Forget the news, it almost never reverses a clear trend - even NFP rarely does that. But ultimately you must do as want. I'd say that if you are worried about being whiplashed, then close, but it does depend on how much in the green your longs are.
  • #10,469
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:15am Apr 16, 2015 6:15am
Quoting cat
{quote} Forget the news, it almost never reverses a clear trend - even NFP rarely does that. But ultimately you must do as want. I'd say that if you are worried about being whiplashed, then close, but it does depend on how much in the green your longs are.

Thanks,

That's what I was hoping you would say.

I'm about 80 pips in the green, I might just move my SL to make sure I at least take a few pips if it drops.

My main concern for that idea though, is that if I tighten and a small spike pushes down, hits my SL and then continues up I'm gonna be annoyed. I guess, that's the risk I have to take if I want to make sure I take pips...

Do you have a strategy for this?
  • #10,470
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:19am Apr 16, 2015 6:19am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Thanks, That's what I was hoping you would say. I'm about 80 pips in the green, I might just move my SL to make sure I at least take a few pips if it drops. My main concern for that idea though, is that if I tighten and a small spike pushes down, hits my SL and then continues up I'm gonna be annoyed. I guess, that's the risk I have to take if I want to make sure I take pips... Do you have a strategy for this?
Id be a fart in a trance if I didn't.
ps - I'm out at R2, if that's any help to you. I have the same kind of profit as you. I still think we'll go up, so I'll look to re-enter when an opportunity arises. If not, I'm happy anyway. I always try never to marry myself to positions.
  • #10,471
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:23am Apr 16, 2015 6:23am
Quoting cat
{quote} Id be a fart in a trance if I didn't.

Hahaha.. Great mental image..
  • #10,472
  • Edited 9:30am Apr 16, 2015 9:12am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Yes, they're broken (might be, I don't use them, so don't know), but anyway. We're in correction atm, here's what I mean The grey non-continuous line is 20 D1 EMA and 1H is currently compressing with a slight bullish tendency. Breaking 0.761 will open the doors for a higher move, if it doesn't happen I'll just get out {image} {image}
GJ's loitering around FX-Ray's DP so it's a good time to look at the other pairs

AU Broke much higher than I expected, now I'm hoping for a retracement to .763 so I can long hard with SL at .754

Coincides with my hope for UC to hit my sell limit at 1.2578.

Next 4-10 days will tell if this is happening. Edit: If the retracement is too quick and takes less than 4 days these two trades will be a big no. If it's slow (4-7 days) it will be go time. If it takes longer than that I'll take it for lots of pushing on the bull side for AU/bear side of UC with no success and therefore won't trade until we get a confirmation for a downmove. Just my 2 cents
  • #10,473
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:18am Apr 16, 2015 10:18am
Approaching 178 watch for rejection here.
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  • #10,474
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:23am Apr 16, 2015 10:23am
Quoting thegmann
Approaching 178 watch for rejection here. {image}

I'm out, took 90ish pips so I'm happy to watch and wait now I think. Too new, I cant deal with the risk/fear element. Time to take a step back and let you big boys play..

Good Luck!

T
  • #10,475
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:31am Apr 16, 2015 10:31am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} I'm out, took 90ish pips so I'm happy to watch and wait now I think. Too new, I cant deal with the risk/fear element. Time to take a step back and let you big boys play.. Good Luck! T
Only the market's big here
  • #10,476
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:35am Apr 16, 2015 10:35am
Quoting thegmann
Approaching 178 watch for rejection here. {image}
Based on your chart, do you expect this to hit 174.3 from here?
Lost....
  • #10,477
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:09am Apr 16, 2015 11:09am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Based on your chart, do you expect this to hit 174.3 from here?
If we get a rejection off this zone I would expect us to retest the 176.3-175.7 support/supply zone. On a break of that I would be targeting 174.3 if we break above the 178 supply zone this could be the start of a resumption of the overall uptrend and I would look towards the 179 resistance area. This support zone is big determinant of whether the downtrend holds or we get some bullish signs that the uptrend is ready to continue important levels here and on GU and UJ as well.
  • #10,478
  • Apr 16, 2015 3:36pm Apr 16, 2015 3:36pm
Went very tight with SL today. Just 20 pips away from price.

Suffered a loss with a long USDCAD (Buy Limit order). So I wanted to secure the profit. Adjusted the SL with the phone. Secured a 160 pips profit.

Signals are still looking good. Employment numbers from UK tomorrow. Will be monitoring the pair from London open tomorrow.

If signals are remaining long and things are looking good, I will look for long entry tomorrow.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #10,479
  • Edited 6:42pm Apr 16, 2015 6:21pm | Edited 6:42pm
As a long time viewer of this thread and a relative newbie, I would like to humbly offer my own view. Based on a trend-line extending from Oct 10, 2013, I see on the hourly a test of that trend-line in the 178.59/90 area. I plan to sell a modest amount from there and accumulate orders based on confirmation.
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,480
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:50pm Apr 16, 2015 9:50pm
I'm short GBP/JPY @ 177.83. Attempting trades on the H4 now. 176.50 or lower before higher? My indications say sellers are going to swarm in soon.
Be humble or be humbled.
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