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  • #10,401
  • Apr 15, 2015 6:51am Apr 15, 2015 6:51am
Thanks Hickson for bringing this up. Thanks DP for respecting the rules. Perhaps you should open up a Ruble thread for those interested.

Anyway, geppy hit another one of FX-rays DP at 175.69 (I had a big buy limit at 175.7 but didn't get filled for some reason). I hope this think re-tests these levels forming an inverted H/S pattern before resuming up. It took 47 bars to form the left shoulder, and we are 20 bars short on the right one. Let's wait and see.
Lost....
  • #10,402
  • Apr 15, 2015 6:54am Apr 15, 2015 6:54am
175.7 is turning into a big deal. The spikes below earlier in the week were likely just false breaks - as maybe was the drop to 174.8. So... if it's not doing some sort of stupid inverse H/S thing, it could simply be trying to turn this area into eventual resistance.
  • #10,403
  • Apr 15, 2015 6:58am Apr 15, 2015 6:58am
Quoting gespiri
Thanks Hickson for bringing this up. Thanks DP for respecting the rules. Perhaps you should open up a Ruble thread for those interested. Anyway, geppy hit another one of FX-rays DP at 175.69 (I had a big buy limit at 175.7 but didn't get filled for some reason). I hope this think re-tests these levels forming an inverted H/S pattern before resuming up. It took 47 bars to form the left shoulder, and we are 20 bars short on the right one. Let's wait and see.

what time frame you seeing this on?
  • #10,404
  • Apr 15, 2015 7:04am Apr 15, 2015 7:04am
Quoting Mpt
175.7 is turning into a big deal. The spikes below earlier in the week were likely just false breaks - as maybe was the drop to 174.8. So... if it's not doing some sort of stupid inverse H/S thing, it could simply be trying to turn this area into eventual resistance.
Will you be hunting for shorts from ~178 Mpt (if we get there)?
  • #10,405
  • Apr 15, 2015 7:23am Apr 15, 2015 7:23am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} what time frame you seeing this on?
1 hr.
Lost....
  • #10,406
  • Apr 15, 2015 7:25am Apr 15, 2015 7:25am
Quoting thegmann
risking a small short here tight SL @ 176.7 targetting 175.8/7 {image}
not bad...
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  • #10,407
  • Apr 15, 2015 7:27am Apr 15, 2015 7:27am
Quoting Mpt
175.7 is turning into a big deal. The spikes below earlier in the week were likely just false breaks - as maybe was the drop to 174.8. So... if it's not doing some sort of stupid inverse H/S thing, it could simply be trying to turn this area into eventual resistance.
True......or it could also be an area of consolidation before a big move. Remember also that this latest move down is consistent with a Wave 5 pattern that started at 179.35+ on April 7. We'll wait and see. It would've been a nice 100 pip now but this thing has to take its time before revealing its true direction.
Lost....
  • #10,408
  • Edited 8:36am Apr 15, 2015 7:41am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Yes, they're broken (might be, I don't use them, so don't know), but anyway. We're in correction atm, here's what I mean The grey non-continuous line is 20 D1 EMA and 1H is currently compressing with a slight bullish tendency. Breaking 0.761 will open the doors for a higher move, if it doesn't happen I'll just get out {image} {image}
Couldn't break .761 even with the support from the news, I'm out with what I got

Also out of GJ long so I think I'm done for today

Edit: Couldn't have been more wrong it seems AU just shot up after I exited, oh well, happens. Still better than trading through news
  • #10,409
  • Apr 15, 2015 8:38am Apr 15, 2015 8:38am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} True......or it could also be an area of consolidation before a big move. Remember also that this latest move down is consistent with a Wave 5 pattern that started at 179.35+ on April 7. We'll wait and see. It would've been a nice 100 pip now but this thing has to take its time before revealing its true direction.

I've given up trying to work out what wave it's in, or whether it's in a wedge or whatever. It's been 19 weeks since 189 and things are still no clearer. But there is another option that rarely gets mentioned - that this is wave 3 coming from 185.... and we just haven't seen acceleration yet.. Although it has hit 1000 pips as of this week - and still no speed.
  • #10,410
  • Apr 15, 2015 8:58am Apr 15, 2015 8:58am
Quite a battle between the bulls and the bears right now.

Trying to break the support at around 176.70.

I am betting on the bulls to win this time. The only risk is the triggering of the SL set to BE.

The move might come during the afternoon, when the CAD fundamentals are finished.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #10,411
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:08am Apr 15, 2015 9:08am
Quoting Decima
Quite a battle between the bulls and the bears right now. Trying to break the support at around 176.70. I am betting on the bulls to win this time. The only risk is the triggering of the SL set to BE. The move might come during the afternoon, when the CAD fundamentals are finished.
On what are you basing the belief that the long move will continue, given the fact that there is no momentum and really no long (or short) signals at this very moment? Are you really okay spending your money by betting on random directions? I'm asking this for your benefit, hope you understand Just as a disclaimer, I've got no positions open atm, not like I'm trying to convince you that my direction is right...
  • #10,412
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:15am Apr 15, 2015 9:15am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} On what are you basing the belief that the long move will continue, given the fact that there is no momentum and really no long (or short) signals at this very moment? Are you really okay spending your money by betting on random directions? I'm asking this for your benefit, hope you understand Just as a disclaimer, I've got no positions open atm, not like I'm trying to convince you that my direction is right...
He has an open position at 175.8 a fine spot to have gotten long on pullback from 176.6 before and daily support level and DP. His stop is at BE and hes letting it go right now i'd say he has more of a probability of a break depending on how GU reacts. The long wicks on the Daily show that there is buying pressure in this zone but other factors are keeping this pair down for now, mainly GU and UJ.
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  • #10,413
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:26am Apr 15, 2015 9:26am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} He has an open position at 175.8 a fine spot to have gotten long on pullback from 176.6 before and daily support level and DP. His stop is at BE and hes letting it go right now i'd say he has more of a probability of a break depending on how GU reacts. The long wicks on the Daily show that there is buying pressure in this zone but other factors are keeping this pair down for now, mainly GU and UJ. {image}
Had the same position, though from 175.818, but I took profit at 176.508.

Maybe, maybe not, with no indicator giving a signal right now I wouldn't be one to lose profit on this. If we get another opportunity going long again is okay, otherwise it's just a drain in the long-term, both mental and monetary.

Edit: On the contrary, looking at the fact that the past 8 4H candles couldn't even get to 176.8 shows a lot of weakness to me, though I wouldn't short either. 50/50 is an annoying game to play
  • #10,414
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:35am Apr 15, 2015 9:35am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Had the same position, though from 175.818, but I took profit at 176.508. Maybe, maybe not, with no indicator giving a signal right now I wouldn't be one to lose profit on this. If we get another opportunity going long again is okay, otherwise it's just a drain in the long-term, both mental and monetary.
What's long term to you 1 day? He could be targetting a larger move than just intraday. He has no stress his stop is BE I would assume he is just following his trade that he setup/planned. If that involved closing at the intraday high of 176.6 then so be it if its targetting a larger move then that's what hes doing. Not everyone is trading the same timeframes and not everyone's R/R is the same. Some people don't enjoy entering and exiting the market trying to catch every little move and would rather swing trade etc. His trade is fine he's not under water and his risk is capped he doesn't have to take profits what if there's never a "clear" long signal and we just shoot up and theres no chance to get back in the trade? Markets ranging right now and with a 50-60 pip buffer holding isn't a bad idea especially at these levels.
  • #10,415
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:40am Apr 15, 2015 9:40am
Quoting alexpi
{quote}1) On what are you basing the belief that the long move will continue, given the fact that there is no momentum and really no long (or short) signals at this very moment? 2)Are you really okay spending your money by betting on random directions? 3)I'm asking this for your benefit, hope you understand Just as a disclaimer, I've got no positions open atm, not like I'm trying to convince you that my direction is right...

1) I have long signals... I stated that my main worry was that my SL/BE to be hit. If I am to trust my system/signals, this is going to go upwards. Offcourse, like other traders, I will not be correct everytime. This is our risk. Still I have to trade according to my signals. That is the reason why SL is set to BE. To limit my risk. I know I might be wrong.

2) What might be random direction for you, migth be a clear direction for others I have both on Daily and for 4h divergence that indicates that price will raise. Again, I might be wrong.

3) That you are giving me advice, I have no problem with. As long as your wishes are well ment. That I believe they are. No problems with that. I might not follow the advice though
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #10,416
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:41am Apr 15, 2015 9:41am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} What's long term to you 1 day? He could be targetting a larger move than just intraday. He has no stress his stop is BE I would assume he is just following his trade that he setup/planned. If that involved closing at the intraday high of 176.6 then so be it if its targetting a larger move then that's what hes doing. Not everyone is trading the same timeframes and not everyone's R/R is the same. Some people don't enjoy entering and exiting the market trying to catch every little move and would rather swing trade etc. His trade is fine he's...
Long-term as in 2-3-4-5-10 years from now he will have had so many profits taken from these kinds of "i'll just move SL to BE" and so many losses caused by rushing to make up the lost profits that it will just ruin his patience and objectivity - that's what I mean by loss of mental capital.

What you're saying is possible, but as I said it's 50/50. I've lost more than I've won doing this kind of no-signal trading, mid-ground, fail-signal trading, and I don't believe in luck.

As FX-Ray always says profit isn't made by rushing and trading in the middle

In this case the initial long signal failed since it didn't break any key resistance.

Edit: Of course, Decima, you're free to do as you wish. All the best from me I'm wrong at least 55% of the time
  • #10,417
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:51am Apr 15, 2015 9:51am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Long-term as in 2-3-4-5-10 years from now he will have had so many profits taken from these kinds of "i'll just move SL to BE" and so many losses caused by rushing to make up the lost profits that it will just ruin his patience and objectivity - that's what I mean by loss of mental capital. What you're saying is possible, but as I said it's 50/50. I've lost more than I've won doing this kind of no-signal trading, and I don't believe in luck. As FX-Ray always says profit isn't made by rushing and trading in the middle
Your thinking of it as taking a trade RIGHT NOW. He did not just place a trade he has been holding with a SL at BE from a big daily resistance level and DP. Yes if someone entered into a long or short right where price is now I would tend to agree it would be a bit of a gamble. However, that is not what has happened here. He is in long from 175.8 he could be targetting 177.5 and maybe even 179/180 longer term. Continuously exiting and entering trades eats up your balance as well in the form of spread/commissions some people don't like to do that. Also you went from talking about long term being a few hours to long term now 2-10 years? And there is no "making up lost profits" his SL is at BE...at worst it was as if he never took the trade. I dont know about you but sitting on a BE trade doesn't cause me mental anguish by waiting I have no more risk than what I defined with my SL and moving it up further limits said risk. He even said he is trading a longer timeframe of 4hr-daily where his take profit targets are larger than what one trading on a 5-15min chart would be looking for. Not everyone trades the same way we can all respect different strategies. A signal on a 5 minute is a lot different than a signal on a daily.
  • #10,418
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:58am Apr 15, 2015 9:58am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Your thinking of it as taking a trade RIGHT NOW. He did not just place a trade he has been holding with a SL at BE from a big daily resistance level and DP. Yes if someone entered into a long or short right where price is now I would tend to agree it would be a bit of a gamble. However, that is not what has happened here. He is in long from 175.8 he could be targetting 177.5 and maybe even 179/180 longer term. Continuously exiting and entering trades eats up your balance as well in the form of spread/commissions some people don't like to...
Sorry, I wasn't looking to aggravate you, though it seems I have for some reason I can't really understand. When I speak long-term about trades I usually mean 1-2 weeks for my 4H trades and 2-3 days for trades entered on 15m. When I speak long-term about trading I think more in the range of 2-10 years. Hope this clears any misunderstandings we have now and in the future, don't feel comfortable having aggressive conversations over the internet.

I've been trading since 2007 and have experienced plenty of disappointments due to what Decima is doing right now. I'm only me, but I worry that others will fall into the same pits I've been in. It just all accumulates, one small trade that doesn't matter or that you accept after another, until one day you wake up and you realise you've missed thousands of dollars of profits and made thousands in losses that could have been avoided, all due to siphoning of mental capital...

In this case, if I'm wrong, great. Good for Decima, no losses for me (or rather profits taken for me )
  • #10,419
  • Apr 15, 2015 10:00am Apr 15, 2015 10:00am
Very nice bullish pattern building on H4 which should take us through to the weekend... looking to take it back towards 178.50
  • #10,420
  • Apr 15, 2015 10:03am Apr 15, 2015 10:03am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Sorry, I wasn't looking to aggravate you, though it seems I have for some reason I can't really understand. When I speak long-term about trades I usually mean 1-2 weeks for my 4H trades and 2-3 days for trades entered on 15m. When I speak long-term about trading I think more in the range of 2-10 years. Hope this clears any misunderstandings we have now and in the future, don't feel comfortable having aggressive conversations over the internet. I've been trading since 2007 and have experienced plenty of disappointments due to what...
Im in no way angry. Im just trying to point out that how Decima was trading is in no way "wrong" or overly aggressive/dangerous. He is just trading in a different style. 1-2 weeks is an extremely long time to be trading a 4hr I would say thats more in range with a daily with using 4hr for entries. 2-10 years is an INSANELY long time I don't know many people holding trades on that long of a timeframe outside of large institutions/ macro hedge funds. Either way I wasn't trying to come off as angry or anything just trying to give some context.
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