The Really Useless Thread

1. Expecting a relatively normal conference without much fuss as the ones lately. There is no rates, no QE, no panic (although Greece can still make noise in the background) in play.... so
2. Focus in the old traditional macroeconomic numbers and outlooks for to EZ. Expecting a "very positive" bag wit a push in the EZ both in inflation and in macro numbers.
3. Since last month FOMC macro fundamentals have lost the perfect alignment they have in the last few months. Euro numbers have been relatively good (especially since QE) and US numbers has been relatively poor but dollar have had a limited reaction so far. A ECB positive push in terms of Macro numbers will suffice to confirm this short time trend.
4. Also FED hikes have been cleared from the short term picture since "patience" was removed from the equation, opening the leg to parity but at the same time the gradual hikes implied by the FED delayed the hikes until at least September 2015 unlocking a potential pullback in dollar before the actual hikes....

On the Technical side:

1. Euro flirting to make a short term bottom since the FOMC to open an extended wide range area that 1.049x / 1.105x.
2. For today the key technical play is setting this current MONTH HIGH and LOW. A failure to take 1.058x until the W roll will set the low of the month and will leave wide open a test of highs and beyond while the opposite will set the high of the month opening a easy limited leg to the 1.02xx handle before going for a extended (few weeks at least) sleep until the FED hikes after in the summer.

For the actual news flow:

1. Map clean and clear. All micro levels raised until the conference and US open so 1.049x floor and 1.071x top with a easy and clear line the sand for the play at the key 1.058x (surprise surprise we are sitting there now just in time for the conference).
2. A "hawkish" outlook (mean good numbers across the board and especially inflation) for the double swing (mini intraday and the real swing that will last a few days/weks) to 1.075x and 1.127x with intermedia stops of 1.066x for the micro swing and 1.098x and 1.112x for macro swing. Blind entry 1.058x and fading 1.06xx for the safe bet.
3. A "dovish" outlook related to Greece concerns and/or more QE details of size and scope and will see a mini direct play 1.058x to 1.049x non stop but it needs to break it on the roll to unlock the 1.02xx handle ..meaing a uneventful conference at the end...

Good luck all for the rest of the month ...

sisse