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Off Road System

  • #1,161
  • Apr 14, 2015 10:01am Apr 14, 2015 10:01am
Quoting isengoz
{quote} well, actually I was asking about the trendline/pattern (i.e. ascending/descending triangles) brekaouts. maybe J. could answer this as most of his trades are taken when the price breaks a trendline or S/R level. if I take a trade as soon as the trendline breaks it sometimes turns out to be a fake spike, if I wait for the candle to close out of the pattern then the price moves too far to be profitable, if I wait for the price to test the trendline it may never come back like the move we had today. I'm good at taking trades at retracements...
Hi Ish. As for me when I'm trading something like you did here or simple 1-2-3 pattern the only filter as I have for now is that in bullish condition on low and higher low, can't be divergence on oscillator, same in bearish, high and lower high without divergence on oscillator.
This increased % of winning trades from this pattern, however you should use it only with high volatility conditions.
  • #1,162
  • Apr 14, 2015 10:21am Apr 14, 2015 10:21am
Quoting jstmzplsz
{quote} Hi Ish. As for me when I'm trading something like you did here or simple 1-2-3 pattern the only filter as I have for now is that in bullish condition on low and higher low, can't be divergence on oscillator, same in bearish, high and lower high without divergence on oscillator. This increased % of winning trades from this pattern, however you should use it only with high volatility conditions.
Right now I'm working to establish some triggers to make this system more stable for me.
Maybe we can work on it in group
  • #1,163
  • Edited 11:36am Apr 14, 2015 10:57am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting isengoz
{quote} well, actually I was asking about the trendline/pattern (i.e. ascending/descending triangles) brekaouts. maybe J. could answer this as most of his trades are taken when the price breaks a trendline or S/R level. if I take a trade as soon as the trendline breaks it sometimes turns out to be a fake spike, if I wait for the candle to close out of the pattern then the price moves too far to be profitable, if I wait for the price to test the trendline it may never come back like the move we had today. I'm good at taking trades at retracements...

Trend lines are subjective. Note the difference in my chart. In addition the Trendlines really are not even lines are areas of several pips depending on the fractal (or timeframe where we are).

I do not have a set of rules to systematize what breaks will be good or not.

I use the story of the wave in varying degrees, as well as price action (and I rely a lot on a momentum indicator, as it provides me, because I know read it, a view of the price action, even clearer, sometimes the price itself, all mutitimeframe).

I look at the chart at M5, at first. If this suggests to me something, then go on to analyze in higher degrees, to be clear what chances I have for the next movement. Always seek the chart which I recognize patterns better.
After a technical analysis better or worse, there comes a time when the trendlines, to me, are losing importance, and reference only serve me, not an obstacle.

And as always, be fore figure how much can I lose anything if I'm wrong side of the market (Stoploss).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,164
  • Apr 14, 2015 11:03am Apr 14, 2015 11:03am
Quoting isengoz
{quote} well, actually I was asking about the trendline/pattern (i.e. ascending/descending triangles) brekaouts. maybe J. could answer this as most of his trades are taken when the price breaks a trendline or S/R level. if I take a trade as soon as the trendline breaks it sometimes turns out to be a fake spike, if I wait for the candle to close out of the pattern then the price moves too far to be profitable, if I wait for the price to test the trendline it may never come back like the move we had today. I'm good at taking trades at retracements...
We have used different trendlines...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,165
  • Edited 12:02pm Apr 14, 2015 11:23am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} We have used different trendlines... {image} {image}
After studying the history of the waves, I can speculate that has been started at least a corrective pattern.
A corrective pattern comprises at least three waves.

The first wave, the wave A, often violent and fast (have closed many trades, at some level, suddenly.
Then comes a little calm and uncertainty, the wave becomes complex, is the wave B, which corrects vawe A (whose speed is not allowed to carry out all transactions).
And finally comes the wave C, which has the structure impulsive going into directionn wave a, and whose purposes are different (usually create liquidity, or try the strength of the currency pair.

I do labeling in the chart is an estimate, because I'm not a specialist Elliot. The trader need not be labeled specialist.

.......................................................................................................................................
A similar analysis shows EURAUD. From a chartist point of view, it was easier for me.
............................................................................................................................................
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,166
  • Apr 14, 2015 11:33am Apr 14, 2015 11:33am
Quoting Patron
{quote} After studying the history of the waves, I can speculate that has been started at least a corrective pattern. A corrective pattern comprises at least three waves. The first wave, the wave A, often violent and fast (have closed many trades, at some level, suddenly. Then comes a little calm and uncertainty, the wave becomes complex, is the wave B, which corrects vawe A (whose speed is not allowed to carry out all transactions). And finally comes the wave C, which has the structure of momentum going into diredccin wave a, and whose purposes...
Forgot to say that in smaller timeframes, volume changes, news and session changes are, finally causing volatility in the expected direction if the analysis is correct.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,167
  • Apr 14, 2015 11:41am Apr 14, 2015 11:41am
My English is very bad, and may not have been entirely clear. I will be happy to respond, to the extent of my knowledge, anything that is not understood well.

But first appreciate everyone do their homework, ie, try to resolve your concerns itself, because it is the best way to learn.

Then we can discuss your own solution to mine and enrich each other.
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  • #1,168
  • Apr 14, 2015 11:49am Apr 14, 2015 11:49am
EURUSD M5

We are not in times of high volatility, but I have noticed a change in the volume of EU.
Maybe it's interesting to look long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,169
  • Apr 14, 2015 11:53am Apr 14, 2015 11:53am
Quoting Patron
EURUSD M5 We are not in times of high volatility, but I have noticed a change in the volume of EU. Maybe it's interesting to look long. {image}
Either way you have to very careful here. It might even be interesting to wait out the main correction and look for short trades.
That depends on the taste and style of trader ..
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  • #1,170
  • Apr 14, 2015 11:10pm Apr 14, 2015 11:10pm
Morning

Got up a little earlier, reading about the volume..
  • #1,171
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:01am Apr 15, 2015 12:01am
Quoting jstmzplsz
Morning Got up a little earlier, reading about the volume..
Good morning! What's on today?
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  • #1,172
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:05am Apr 15, 2015 12:05am
Quoting Patron
{quote} Good morning! What's on today?
Possible 5th wave on GU and EU
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  • #1,173
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:07am Apr 15, 2015 12:07am
Possible correction on EA after 5 waves.
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  • #1,174
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:09am Apr 15, 2015 12:09am
On GJ and EJ we are in a second wave, so I think we will be heading south for 50 fibo number maybe.. The other option is, that price will make 1-2-3 patern and after that it will be clear that we should go up.

What do you think?
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  • #1,175
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:13am Apr 15, 2015 12:13am
Quoting jstmzplsz
{quote} Possible 5th wave on GU and EU {image} {image}
I am looking for long EURUSD, but with great care, and a stoploss indisputable.
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  • #1,176
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:15am Apr 15, 2015 12:15am
Quoting Patron
{quote} I am looking for long EURUSD, but with great care, and a stoploss indisputable.
So do I, also on GU.
  • #1,177
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:27am Apr 15, 2015 12:27am
Quoting Patron
{quote} EJ see it similar to EU. No second wave, but 4 or 5. It's what I see. We also have to tread carefully, and stop loss immovable.
GU, EU and EJ has changed direction to south. Am I right?
  • #1,178
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:29am Apr 15, 2015 12:29am
Quoting Patron
{quote} EJ see it similar to EU. No second wave, but 4 or 5. It's what I see. We also have to tread carefully, and stop loss immovable.
Change of mindset to EU and seeking short ...
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  • #1,179
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:30am Apr 15, 2015 12:30am
Quoting jstmzplsz
{quote} GU, EU and EJ has changed direction to south. Am I right?
Yes
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  • #1,180
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:38am Apr 15, 2015 12:38am
Quoting Patron
{quote} I am looking for long EURUSD, but with great care, and a stoploss indisputable.
at the moment I dont think its a good idea I m not expecting something new from Mario draghi!! we will see look like EUR USD its going to 1.0580
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