The Really Useless Thread | Page 6674 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #133,461
  • Apr 13, 2015 2:19pm Apr 13, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} As long as you post the 2 to 4 trade and not the 100 to 2 trade you'll earn your redflag


FoFac in a nutshell!
  • #133,462
  • Apr 13, 2015 2:36pm Apr 13, 2015 2:36pm
Actually...

If you risked 10k at 100...saying it would hit either 200 or 0, but then bailed at 2...you'd be left with $200. (-9800)

Then if you risked 10k at 2...saying it would hit either 4 or 0...and it hit 4...you'd make 10k.

..10000
+ -9800
....$200 profit

But that's being anal! Still a funny cartoon...and not a risk management aide.
  • #133,463
  • Edited 2:59pm Apr 13, 2015 2:45pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting sisse
A flat day in the euro as expected after the european opening range. Same 1.058x only level to track for the roll. Still tracking very closely the failure swing in yen that looks nearly cook on the yen side, sadly (for this trade) dollar still kicking ass across the board and it will subdue and offset most of the impact of yen strength till we complete the FED hike leg. Still it will be nice to clean some weak hands short term in UJ on the highs in a quick down and up move .... sisse
Thanks for all the magnificent market talk and analysis you, are superb.

I would like to bring up DAX , as I think it is at a very interesting area on the chart.
The year began right above the YEARLY PIVOT. Price proceeded to bounce sharply and commenced its take off.
It has been a marvelous rally, 45 degree textbook trend which has broken without any trouble the YEARLY R1 and R2.
Last Friday, price hit YEARLY R3.
Today no break once more, and price started to head down. A Daily close today below last daily candle mid - 12300 is needed to strengthen the probability of a strong downwards correction (finally?).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax.png Size: 19 KB

Yearly R3, either way is a nice area to try a good R:R short.
Anyone else following DAX and has a different view?
Sisse please some words on the DAX it's been a while since you talked about it.

EDIT: I want to add that if UJ closes below 120.15 and will fall under 120.00 and then 119.70, and also Euro will hopefully close and maintain above 1.0580.. Then all is aligned for the move

Thanks All
  • #133,464
  • Apr 13, 2015 3:14pm Apr 13, 2015 3:14pm
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Anyone else following DAX and has a different view? Sisse please some words on the DAX it's been a while since you talked about it.
I've only recently started tracking it because of how many I people see around discussing it these days. Random thoughts...

-Hell of an upward trajectory...surely can't continue forever.
-ECB QE (long set to continue) obviously playing some part in fueling it and keeping it afloat.
-I'm petrified to short it! Wouldn't mind a long with a decent correction.
-Very difficult to pick a top when every tick higher is further into the unknown.

-If I were going to short it...why the hell not on Yearly R3 with a tight stop?

Sisse will be along to smarten us all up.

Good post...and fine looking plan! GL
  • #133,465
  • Apr 13, 2015 3:18pm Apr 13, 2015 3:18pm
Right gents...ladies???

Catch you tomorrow around NY...actually from NYC.

Fun session today. Play safe!
  • #133,466
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:18pm Apr 13, 2015 4:18pm
...and we rolled ... Euro with a very bearish close. We lost 1.058x in daily triggering imminent break alerts for the swing this week. 1.058x level to track until the european opening. Positioning pre ECB for the swing break out comes with US news and NY for a chance 1.071x.

Active sessions on sight ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,467
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:34pm Apr 13, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting sisse
....and we rolled. Fairly bullish daily close with intraday bears still holding the upper-hand as long as 1.066x is holding. Map pretty clear now. 1.071x key level for next week until the ECB conference. sisse
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled ... Euro with a very bearish close. We lost 1.058x in daily triggering imminent break alerts for the swing this week. 1.058x level to track until the european opening. Positioning pre ECB for the swing break out comes with US news and NY for a chance 1.071x. Active sessions on sight .... sisse
Seriously dude, I can't figure out what you are seeing in a chart.

The daily range from Friday was quite close to the range from today, only closing in the bottom half of the candle on Friday, which you considered bullish, but in the top half of the candle today, which you consider bearish?

Are you talking Bears and Bulls on the Yank, or on EURUSD as a whole?

Again, still seeing where you have a topside target...and not saying that we don't get there this week...just trying to figure out what the feck you are looking at!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #133,468
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:36pm Apr 13, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Thanks for all the magnificent market talk and analysis you, are superb. I would like to bring up DAX , as I think it is at a very interesting area on the chart. The year began right above the YEARLY PIVOT. Price proceeded to bounce sharply and commenced its take off. It has been a marvelous rally, 45 degree textbook trend which has broken without any trouble the YEARLY R1 and R2. Last Friday, price hit YEARLY R3. Today no break once more, and price started to head down. A Daily close today below last daily candle mid - 12300 is needed to...
Thanks for your kind words.

Well we can go in a bit more detail in DAX tomorrow but in general the main issue is:

  1. With QE and negative rates money have nowhere to go except Equities. It will be very difficult to have more than a small breather in DAX as long as these strong factors are aligned.

Having said that there are only 3 option for a DAX pullback:

  1. A technical pullback via a round of bad numbers. Looks hard so far as numbers in Europe keep picking up and deflation has subdue a bit since QE.
  2. A portfolio realignment (MAY sell off?) for the summer. Basically take profits from the year and let the FED hikes carry equities down across the world
  3. An probably the only one short term risk knee jerk reaction play in Europe via Greece defaulting or similar...

In simple words, there are very strong push factors and a lot (all money from pensions to speculators) in equities (DAX) right now so sure we can have violent a pullback (everybody on board on the same side is always dangerous) but it will also be very difficult to forecast given such a strong push factors.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,469
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:42pm Apr 13, 2015 4:42pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} {quote} Seriously dude, I can't figure out what you are seeing in a chart. The daily range from Friday was quite close to the range from today, only closing in the bottom half of the candle on Friday, which you considered bullish, but in the top half of the candle today, which you consider bearish? Are you talking Bears and Bulls on the Yank, or on EURUSD as a whole? Again, still seeing where you have a topside target...and not saying that we don't get there this week...just trying to figure out what the feck you are looking at!
....

Let me put in simple words. Friday we held last break up point (FOMC play in March) for the weekly swing. Today we lost that same break in daily. That swing in play is a FA weekly swing so a daily failure is only an early alert as the play go with weekly and the ECB conference ... I hope that makes better sense ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,470
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:47pm Apr 13, 2015 4:47pm
Quoting sisse
I hope that makes better sense ... sisse
Actually...

In reference to being bearish and bullish, to me, this makes zero sense. When price is falling, drawing a line on a chart to try and understand where it will stop, doesn't belong in the same paragraph as bearish and bullish. Nor do I believe any said line on the chart should be reference to a bear or bull, especially if it is outside of the days range. Daily open...yeah. Weekly open, Hell Yeah. A point 50 to 100 pips below price? NO!

But, I at least understand what you are using for reference.

Thanks!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #133,471
  • Apr 13, 2015 5:14pm Apr 13, 2015 5:14pm
0567 is more of a b*tch than I originally predicted. We're sitting right above support with a big US news and an even bigger EU conf. coming up.....

Tuesday is pump day.

As usual- setting up for a potential WTF candle. I suspect even the tiniest break of the low will trigger stops.
  • #133,472
  • Apr 13, 2015 5:14pm Apr 13, 2015 5:14pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Actually... In reference to being bearish and bullish, to me, this makes zero sense. When price is falling, drawing a line on a chart to try and understand where it will stop, doesn't belong in the same paragraph as bearish and bullish. Nor do I believe any said line on the chart should be reference to a bear or bull, especially if it is outside of the days range. Daily open...yeah. Weekly open, Hell Yeah. A point 50 to 100 pips below price? NO! But, I at least understand what you are using for reference. Thanks!
There are lines and lines. Plus I don't use lines for actual trading.

The current area its a major weekly breakout that hold the current yearly low. Sure you can say major support and resistance zones are just "lines" in the sand but from there to just say they are random areas as a simple chart grid I will have to strongly disagree ...especially when swinging...

A quick flip like this seldom happens and usually points to an aggressive leg (no retrace) when confirmed. FYI, we have only 3 flip swing side this year !!!.

In simple words, I am referring on purely technical S/r swing trades signals areas to be played with FA alignment triggers not about buy if close above this random line that only I got in a tiny TF and sell if close below...

We will chat later with the swing play ...that may make my view a bit clearer ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #133,473
  • Apr 13, 2015 8:16pm Apr 13, 2015 8:16pm
Quoting kenfen69
{quote} I've only recently started tracking it because of how many I people see around discussing it these days. Random thoughts... -Hell of an upward trajectory...surely can't continue forever. -ECB QE (long set to continue) obviously playing some part in fueling it and keeping it afloat. -I'm petrified to short it! Wouldn't mind a long with a decent correction. -Very difficult to pick a top when every tick higher is further into the unknown. -If I were going to short it...why the hell not on Yearly R3 with a tight stop? Sisse will be along...
forget the correction for the time being. I think, about 2 years, could be 3 already, I discussed the major cycles with Sisse based on the DJ. If you can find it, read it, was very insightful with respect to the then US-circumstances, which are now true for the EZ.
  • #133,474
  • Apr 13, 2015 8:18pm Apr 13, 2015 8:18pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} forget the correction for the time being. I think, about 2 years, could be 3 already, I discussed the major cycles with Sisse based on the DJ. If you can find it, read it, was very insightful with respect to the then US-circumstances, which are now true for the EZ.
This should be close, at least from what I remember regarding major cycles

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...es#post6408746
  • #133,475
  • Apr 13, 2015 8:37pm Apr 13, 2015 8:37pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
as for the AUD, I dont know if a breach of 7616 makes me wanna look for longs, or shorts now....guess I'll have to reconsider the whole damn thing again...early in the week, no rush really...
looking for longs, perhaps against the 7567/80 area....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #133,476
  • Apr 13, 2015 8:57pm Apr 13, 2015 8:57pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Now that's forward thinking! I didn't think about that and to think Hatch told me thread was completely hopeless.
  • #133,477
  • Apr 13, 2015 9:22pm Apr 13, 2015 9:22pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote}
  • #133,478
  • Apr 13, 2015 11:10pm Apr 13, 2015 11:10pm
the last test was at 1.06xx and i don't think it will test the 1.07xx according to my strategy .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #133,479
  • Apr 14, 2015 12:12am Apr 14, 2015 12:12am
also watching dollar/cad today for longs perhaps...but not sure when, or where..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #133,480
  • Apr 14, 2015 12:35am Apr 14, 2015 12:35am
Good morning.

Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} looking for longs, perhaps against the 7567/80 area....
Ditto. Not sure if we'll see much movement prior to the China-news tonight.
Fail better.
26 traders viewing now