The Club!

Grand Central: A Roadmap to the Fed's Thinking on the Jobs Report

Slaves: work more!!!

So, How IS the U.S. Economy Doing?


simple as that

If you dont mind me de-picking this video apart:

As i said before Schiff is not investor, he is a salesman. He is guy trained in Wall street and after 20 years not being there, still keeping completly the same mentality. Salesman is guy who has no objective approach to market, he is just basically presenting view that makes sales. He is either doing it for sales or really believes what he says (Schiff gold), which means his view is not expanded enough to come to solid conclusions. Now with that said, 50% of things he says are completly true, but with 50% wrong, you cant be taking view seriously. There have been many calling for collapse 2014, some even dare to put monthly target on collapse. And that was ongoing since 200X. Sure all fiat systems go bad, but you cant make call and then say after 40 years when things come true, see thats why i was telling its gona go down. The thing is that behind collapse call its just so many different layers going on that are not being recognized.

He believes that 2008 scenario began by bubble bursting of extensive added housings, which is not true. Scenario really began on derivates playfield, not real assets. Its sub-primes that took down whole system. He doesnt know how derivates work, i said that before. If you dont understand them, then you also cannot make predictions about US debt emploding.
He thinks FED wont raise rates. We had that discussion before, i think he is dead wrong here, they will raise, and while he thinks world should run away from USD, the oposite will happen and is already happening. Bankers are living in fiat dream state, he lives in gold dream state.
Increasing taxes on middle class people??? Really? That would help? There have been thousands examples in past 100 years, that this never worked. You shrink down demand and spending. 1% is overtaxed? Nope, many of them dont pay taxes, including biggest companies, altough i do agree that those that do pay have to pay way too much. Paying 40% of tax is scam for anyone to pay, true sign of how far has deficits and debt run the things. The thing is getting taxed payed really by those who have good income, not increasing, and certainly not increasing them on middle class.

FED printing money, makes dollar worthless...Well lets see they did 5 QEs, and dollar has gained since. QE doesnt go into system mostly, he doesnt know it seems like.
He is saying that dollar is worthless currency, and USA cannot repay debt, and on few sentences later he is saying China is rich becouse they have 4 tril of USD reserves. Now which one is it. USA has massive debt, but China has only real wealth. Obviously he doesnt know China has biggest credit bubble we know atm. Their credit is growing at rapid speed. Collapse of USA system would not let China spare, that is the point of it, which he doesnt seem to understand.
USA debt number pretty much is worthless for any analysis. It doesnt make difference if its 10 trilion or if its 40 trillion , market will precieve it the same, as its all based on confidence into USD and credit system. So unles China-Russian axis has plan to overthrow USD there is no way market will lose that , especially not if FED hikes.

And when FED does rases rates youll see him overexplain and emidently switch his view without admiting being wrong. If you follow him long enough youll notice he is one of those guys who never admit their misstake. Basically he is fxtyrant.

Does he ever acknowledge that confescation could be possible thing to happen ,especially with new DB law passing by few months ago? Nope it doesnt even mention it. Also he was asked once why he doesnt include gold price rigging trough naked shorts into his analysis since it plays massive role on gold price. Again he just swept it under the rug. So how can one makes price prediction without acknowleding the main mechanism behind it?

USA is exporting inflation, which is big burden for world economy...he is dead right on that one. This doesnt get pointed out a lot and yet its very important. With that said there is many things besides he is right, but the thing is he is looking it way to simplified and looking at wrong corners for turns. Any new technology eg Bitcoin he will dismiss, even though Bitcoin is on most aspects FAR better than Gold, he will mostly dismiss it. Basically you can notice he is not willing to expand his knowledge as he needs to stick to his own view, if he expands, it goes rotten, probably he knows it.

Now I got confused by your reply - so I clicked again at the link: and voilà: I had linked the wrong video


I wanted to show this one:





Point is: it is all about psycho-economic sentiment what is driving the markets



Sorry for bad link.........

now I feel bad, because you put so much work in your response. Sorry again....

No problem. Yeh bad weather seems like good thing to blame on for everything. However video makes one serious flaw. It points that 2% and less yields on debt are due to low demand for credit. That is serious missunderstanding of situation. Demand for credit is massive since 2008, goes back to my previous post, look at China, look at USA, look at EU, debts going trough roofs, but rates going oposite. Demand for credit is massive, but yields are not mirroring it, not becouse of supply and demand factor, but becouse of central banks. See...markets are rigged. In rigged markets there is no supply and demand on big scale. So with QEs running at full scale, what it does is distorts real demand for credit from economy, to what states need to keep going on status quo, and that is provided trough QE. And QE then further drive yields down, while expanding debts, becouse the yield is not determined by market, who might be or not be interested in credit, but its de-coupled by actions of central banks with low interest rates and QEs.

That is a good report indeed.
It is very helpful for investment deals.
But I would prefer to see weekly reports.

Best,
D.P.

Hi Jan,

have now watched the video of Schiff. You are completely right about him, I think.

Regarding the demand for credit:

I think he was talking about private households and evtually non-financial companies. Because this two, at least, have de-leveraged over the course of the past years (at least a bit).

You can see that in many countries.


Quick examples (when I find more data I will put it here)


http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detai...in-and-the-uk/

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MDOTHIOH


But when it comes to Governments, the picture may look entirely different.

Not sure if thats what he meant, becouse he tied it to picture of state yields on debt. You are right on your point but i think he generally drawn conclusion from yields into debt/credit in general. By no means can you use yields and point only one aspect of credit from it, and if he did that he is just as wrong as from point one.

EU Volume profile

5min TF (each price calculated as (H+L+C)/3)

Volume 160 days

Volume says strong demand here/strong flip, most of time such structures have strong bounce leg on exact point of strong flip where we are now, however as structure is bear in the end its most of time broken on support.

http://prntscr.com/6syc83

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
UK Housing Bubble Bursts: Sales Of Luxury Homes Crash By 80% As "Waves Of Wealthy People Are Leaving"

Thank you D.P. My thread has finally been started! You're welcome to join us

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
7 Years Later The "Very Serious People" Finally Ask: Was QE Worth It?

Goldman Sachs

EU Elliott wave analysis


http://news.forexlive.com/!/eurusd-t...-wave-20150412



intermediate term their analysis is inline with my view (more or less)

but their long term view sucks, because they have the wave from the 2000 low up as wave 1. That does not only ignore the structural problems in Europe over the next many years, but also ignores the data we have pre 2000 (although the EURO was not established there).

Now it gets interesting:

EU 15min TF

will the short term base channel hold or not?

Another reason for AUD to go lower, along with QE talk and possible cut:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...collapse-march

So do you remember my previous post?

Today the situations is follows.

First picture is about my short taken at 1.05602.
T/Ps are at 1.05000 and 1.04750. The last T/P is at the second standart deviation. We shall see.

The green target is still valid. However I think, the green line might be hit after a correction at the zone of 1.04750-1.05000.

Best,
D.P.

P.S. Realy interesting...

YW, hope it helped.

It is a hot day today indeed.

Best to everyone,
D.P.

P.S. If we look at Market profile, we can assume that there is a normal day to be being prepared today.