Disliked{quote} Hi Sixer, great to see you. Do not know if it is related to ECB activity. The ECB has done so far around 7% of the QE they would like to do. The ECB announced it at the 4th of March. EU stood at 1.12 roughly. If these activities would translate into drops each time, we can calculate the effect approximately: let us see: 1.12 as start of 4th of March now, 11th of April, 7% QE established, price at 1,06 delta is 600 pips or better 5,4% +7% QE (14%) EU @ 1,06 -5.4% = 1,01 21% = 0,96 28% = 0,90 35% = 0,85 42% = 0,81 49% = 0,76 56% = 0,72 63%...Ignored
Now why cant EU moves be suggested from QE? Becouse there is USD flows that impact EU hugely every single day. And with rate talks in last year, even more. So simply there is not possible to predict clean market move in term of mathematical equasion becouse there are so many different flows always ongoing. The only difference is when supply and demand balance is ruined hugely lets say on confirmation of hike on that and that date, then the market leg could be up to 90% assumed on where flows have come, and maybe for next few days one could assume directions also from it. But that is extreme times when picture is so skewed that normal market balance is destroyed.
Now but lets not theorize, i like to explain market trough PA if PA gives clues. Sixer pull up XXXUSD charts of past 3 days. You will see. USD. And thats how it should be done most of time, dont overcook it becouse its not gona taste good, and its counter-productive in terms of results.