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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #18,601
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:00pm Apr 10, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Admining on EU thread in general is terrible. Also its best to stay away from EU thread if you want to stay alive on this forum and not get baned. Ill try to incorporate that more.

That is good advice. But from time to time I can not help but to speak out.

Especially considering the fact, that Maldegeni is a very fine and polite person. There was no simple reason for suspending him.
  • #18,602
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:01pm Apr 10, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I see you are back, my friend. the other way I thought was that I should take my beloved toy and would go to the FF to take you, being saved, from there - I was very angry indeed. Best, D.P.




But in the end Twee was quick to un-suspend us.


I would like the toy to toy with another person
  • #18,603
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:03pm Apr 10, 2015 1:03pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
What A Great Public Relations Stuff For Putin ! http://putin.forsale Best, D.P. P.S. Let them be clear ... P.P.S This is not a fake - you can buy it for 20 Euro.



People are so desperate.......
  • #18,604
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:07pm Apr 10, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Welcome. I do not understand the reason you get involved in such a stupid discussion. I understand that sometimes if you read the EU thread you need to write on it, as there are so many wrong statements, but it's better to stay away.

I can not stand aside and keep my mouth shut, when I see people doing wilfully wrong.

Another example is:

weeks ago the G threatened me with a ban for criticizing the Tyrant. He insulted Janpec and a few others and was racist. But that seems to be OK over there.

Not with me......
  • #18,605
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:09pm Apr 10, 2015 1:09pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Hi, Lavanda, how are you doing? And I must add to your sentence - It is better to stay at your own home thread. Best, D.P.

Indeed. Everyone knows when one walks in the cowshed: when one gets out, there is sticking some smelly stuff on the boots
  • #18,606
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:24pm Apr 10, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Indeed. Everyone knows when one walks in the cowshed: when one gets out, there is sticking some smelly stuff on the boots



D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,607
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:28pm Apr 10, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
How long?
1/ the price needs being corrected next week. I suggest the price will be fluctuating at the lines of the p.p. 1 and 2.
2/ the price is about to test the 1038-1050 area once again. if the area is broken, the price might be going to the 1336 area 3/ otherwise the price might go down to the priority area..
The green target line is still valid at least.


Best,
D.P.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-10_21h21_44.png Size: 38 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,608
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:42pm Apr 10, 2015 4:42pm
Quoting infinitus
Can someone look at this indicator and say, why it is not running on the new MT4 builds? It is from this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=284361 {file}
Try this one, I corrected Type 1 not showing problem. If any other problem than please specify it
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 CandleVolume_09_3_beta.ex4   37 KB | 289 downloads
File Type: mq4 CandleVolume_09_3_beta.mq4   24 KB | 328 downloads
  • #18,609
  • Apr 11, 2015 12:16am Apr 11, 2015 12:16am
Quoting infinitus
Lest not forget Fukushima
I wouldn't believe ENENews if I were you. This from RationalWiki:

"ENENews, or Energy News, is a fear mongering anti-nuclear news aggregator that was created in response to the Fukushima I nuclear accident. The site tends to have three different types of posts: posts that imply the Fukushima accident has poisoned the entire Pacific Ocean and adjacent coastlines (as if a single reactor could do such a thing) and that "They" are covering up the true scale of the disaster.
The site also features posts that report on any and every case of animal death and disease that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and adjacent coastlines, and posts that claim that the Fukushima reactors are seconds away from exploding again and releasing more pollution."

Also this thread, rebuking the article you posted, is interesting:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=291429

And sorry you were suspended for sticking up for someone. G can be a real prick sometimes, can't he?

Regards,
NT
You reap what you sow.
  • #18,610
  • Apr 11, 2015 12:44am Apr 11, 2015 12:44am
EURUSD 4 cents to the downside after Easter - a sign of "strong" ECB-activities !?

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D-EURUSD(5)-10.4.15.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #18,611
  • Apr 11, 2015 6:25am Apr 11, 2015 6:25am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Try this one, I corrected Type 1 not showing problem. If any other problem than please specify it {file} {file}
Thank you, Rocketzeus, for your kind endeavors.
I have been using Sonic R Candle (attached). Full package of the Sonic R indicators can be found at the Sonic R thread.
I must say both indicators are marking the same candles.
CandleVolume is widening those candles that have relatively higher volume traded within the candle.
However I dislike the fact of CandleVolume code "weight" - it is "heavier" more than twice than the Sonic R Candle indy.

I think it might be of interest anyway.

Best,
D.P.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SonicR PVA Candles (Black).mq4   11 KB | 270 downloads
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,612
  • Apr 11, 2015 6:35am Apr 11, 2015 6:35am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Try this one, I corrected Type 1 not showing problem. If any other problem than please specify it {file} {file}

Thank you very much, Mate


great work

Now I can try it to see, if it has value
  • #18,613
  • Apr 11, 2015 6:37am Apr 11, 2015 6:37am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Thank you, Rocketzeus, for your kind endeavors. I have been using Sonic R Candle (attached). Full package of the Sonic R indicators can be found at the Sonic R thread. I must say both indicators are marking the same candles. CandleVolume is widening those candles that have relatively higher volume traded within the candle. However I dislike the fact of CandleVolume code "weight" - it is "heavier" more than twice than the Sonic R Candle indy. I think it might be of interest anyway. Best, D.P. {file}

Thanks D.P.,will try this also
  • #18,614
  • Apr 11, 2015 6:41am Apr 11, 2015 6:41am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Thank you, Rocketzeus, for your kind endeavors. I have been using Sonic R Candle (attached). Full package of the Sonic R indicators can be found at the Sonic R thread. I must say both indicators are marking the same candles. CandleVolume is widening those candles that have relatively higher volume traded within the candle. However I dislike the fact of CandleVolume code "weight" - it is "heavier" more than twice than the Sonic R Candle indy. I think it might be of interest anyway. Best, D.P. {file}

Do you use this system for TF's bigger than 1h?
  • #18,615
  • Apr 11, 2015 6:51am Apr 11, 2015 6:51am
Quoting Sixer
EURUSD 4 cents to the downside after Easter - a sign of "strong" ECB-activities !? Sixer {image}
Might be might not be. In the end we trade price, and what happens in shadows let it be.
  • #18,616
  • Apr 11, 2015 6:55am Apr 11, 2015 6:55am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} I wouldn't believe ENENews if I were you. This from RationalWiki: "ENENews, or Energy News, is a fear mongering anti-nuclear news aggregator that was created in response to the Fukushima I nuclear accident. The site tends to have three different types of posts: posts that imply the Fukushima accident has poisoned the entire Pacific Ocean and adjacent coastlines (as if a single reactor could do such a thing) and that "They" are covering up the true scale of the disaster. The site also features posts that report on any and every case of animal...
Yep that and lets chip in the fact that he is shaping EU thread by his own likeings, which is obviously completly subjective for admin to do. Lets chip on top of that: bad businessman, if my theory about FF payments stand.
  • #18,617
  • Apr 11, 2015 6:56am Apr 11, 2015 6:56am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} I wouldn't believe ENENews if I were you. This from RationalWiki: "ENENews, or Energy News, is a fear mongering anti-nuclear news aggregator that was created in response to the Fukushima I nuclear accident. The site tends to have three different types of posts: posts that imply the Fukushima accident has poisoned the entire Pacific Ocean and adjacent coastlines (as if a single reactor could do such a thing) and that "They" are covering up the true scale of the disaster. The site also features posts that report on any and every case of animal...

Hi NorthTrader,

what a coincidence. Just yesterday I checked FF, if you were active or missing in action LOL

How are you? Hope all is fine.


Half a day in suspension is no big thing. 30 days and my addiction would tickle in LOL

Gators actions lately will do him harm in the long run (e.g. credibility), that is for sure.



Regarding the Fukushima article:

damn it, most of the time I check the source, this time not


But on the other hand: if this article is only worth to shake people awake, it has done its work


Fukushima is a disaster, and nothing is contained. Japanese government is playing SNAFU
  • #18,618
  • Apr 11, 2015 7:16am Apr 11, 2015 7:16am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you use this system for TF's bigger than 1h?
Nop, intraday only, 3-5 min,
but overall analyse is at 1, 4H and Daily.

Best,
D.P.

P.S. Maybe the timeframe usage is the reason for applying the CandleVolume indy. Needs rethinking of.

Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you use this system for TF's bigger than 1h?
P.P.S. Sonic R system was designed to give us a clear entry at 15 min.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,619
  • Apr 11, 2015 8:15am Apr 11, 2015 8:15am
Quoting Sixer
EURUSD 4 cents to the downside after Easter - a sign of "strong" ECB-activities !? Sixer {image}

Hi Sixer,

great to see you.


Do not know if it is related to ECB activity.

The ECB has done so far around 7% of the QE they would like to do. The ECB announced it at the 4th of March. EU stood at 1.12 roughly.

If these activities would translate into drops each time, we can calculate the effect approximately:


let us see:


1.12 as start of 4th of March

now, 11th of April, 7% QE established, price at 1,06

delta is 600 pips or better 5,4%


+7% QE (14%) EU @ 1,06 -5.4% = 1,01

21% = 0,96

28% = 0,90

35% = 0,85

42% = 0,81

49% = 0,76

56% = 0,72

63% = 0,68

70% = 0,64

77% = 0,61

85% = 0,57

92% = 0,54

100% = 0,51 (September of 2016 proposed end of QE)


Does that make sense?

Looking at the 0,51 in September 2016, and looking at a historical chart I say: why not.



But then again let us have a look at the history of QE3 in USA and what it had done to EU:


from Wikipedia

A third round of quantitative easing, "QE3", was announced on 13 September 2012. In an 11–1 vote, the Federal Reserve decided to launch a new $40 billion per month, open-ended bond purchasing program of agency mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would likely maintain the federal funds rate near zero "at least through 2015."[53][54] According to NASDAQ.com, this is effectively a stimulus program that allows the Federal Reserve to relieve $40 billion per month of commercial housing market debt risk.[55] Because of its open-ended nature, QE3 has earned the popular nickname of "QE-Infinity."[56] On 12 December 2012, the FOMC announced an increase in the amount of open-ended purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion per month.[57]

On 19 June 2013, Ben Bernanke announced a "tapering" of some of the Fed's QE policies contingent upon continued positive economic data. Specifically, he said that the Fed could scale back its bond purchases from $85 billion to $65 billion a month during the upcoming September 2013 policy meeting.[58][not in citation given] He also suggested that the bond-buying program could wrap up by mid-2014.[59] While Bernanke did not announce an interest rate hike, he suggested that if inflation followed a 2% target rate and unemployment decreased to 6.5%, the Fed would likely start raising rates. The stock markets dropped by approximately 4.3% over the three trading days following Bernanke's announcement, with the Dow Jones dropping 659 points between 19 and 24 June, closing at 14,660 at the end of the day on 24 June.[60] On 18 September 2013, the Fed decided to hold off on scaling back its bond-buying program,[61] and later began tapering purchases the next year—February 2014.[62] Purchases were halted on 29 October 2014[63] after accumulating $4.5 trillion in assets.[64]


I transferred this data into my chart. See annotation there:

I chose 4 day TF for better visibility reason

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Days_snapshot.png Size: 106 KB



What can we learn: (keep in mind: this is alone for QE3)

a) there is a poor correlation between QE and price at least in the shorter terms

b) when expectations set in, e.g. announcement of tapering, price fell back quickly

c) when looking at the start of QE3, price declined/consolidated for month. May be a sign, that the big boys accumulated as much as possible

So let us take a look on a COT Chart. You can see the net-positions of the participants. It is very interesting. In the marked phase, where the FED bought 40B per month, the participants went outright flat on their positions. Curious, isn't it? When the FED started buying 85 B per month they could not even make up their mind. There was outright confusion. So much for the meme of the SMART money.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 105 KB



d) the EU increased around 1100 pips on 1.5 Trillion QE 3, whereas the EU dropped around 600 to 800 pips on around 100 B ECB QE so far.


e) QE1 in USA started in Nov 2008 with EU around 1.25. So Start QE1 to end QE3 resulted in approximately unchanged price of EU


I think we should look at other paramenters than QE in order to come to a conclusion where price will go and how far
  • #18,620
  • Apr 11, 2015 8:20am Apr 11, 2015 8:20am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Nop, intraday only, 3-5 min, but overall analyse is at 1, 4H and Daily. Best, D.P. P.S. Maybe the timeframe usage is the reason for applying the CandleVolume indy. Needs rethinking of. {quote} P.P.S. Sonic R system was designed to give us a clear entry at 15 min.

That was what I wanted to hear.

If one uses volume candles etc. on a too high TF, it gets worthless. Even the interpretation of 1h TF may be critical


I think most value for seeing where the S/R levels are is to look at the volume or market profiles with volume/price.


Do we have now a very good volume profile MT4 indicator where one can put the lookback period in flexibly, without bringing the performance ofthe whole computer system down? Or do I need to stick to my Excel solution?
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