Disliked{quote} I would also like to point out that it is The Close which decides whether a candle is Red/Green, Doji/Hammer, IB/OB and so on.Ignored
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
- #106
- Apr 8, 2015 11:36am Apr 8, 2015 11:36am
The importance or irrilevance of a reference point 
http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/a/anchoring.htm
Alex
http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/a/anchoring.htm
Alex
- #107
- Edited 3:09am Apr 9, 2015 2:58am | Edited 3:09am
The importance or irrilevance of a reference point
A reference point when used correctly should give you the raw truth, the facts. It will be obvious and apparent to all!
If usdjpy is trading under Tokyo open and then London comes online and they offer the pair out of the open and the buyers cannot break the sellers, what exactly does that tell you about usdjpy? usdjpy is better offered.
If you ask a million people they'll give you the same answer and it won't be biased. Why? Because it is what it is.
Trade the facts, trade what is.
Regards
- #108
- Apr 9, 2015 3:43am Apr 9, 2015 3:43am
{quote} Alex, reference points shouldn't bias you towards an outcome. One where you get trapped and reality and your bias become misaligned. A reference point when used correctly should give you the raw truth, the facts. It will be obvious and apparent to all! If usdjpy is trading under Tokyo open and then London comes online and they offer the pair out of the open and the buyers cannot break the sellers, what exactly does that tell you about usdjpy? If you ask a million people they'll give you the same answer and it won't be biased. Why? Because...
I don't know which one is better, I'm analyzing each one indipendent so don't take my words as an end clear point of view.
Your point of view, unbiased.
Take as reference Tokyo and look how price reacts at London open or whatever. In this case I used a reference of 8 hours ago, it can also be a reference of 1 hour ago, but it is still a past reference.
My point of view, biased.
Premise, majority of people take biased decision. The act of take a decision is influenced by a previous bias. The act of take a decision is the last impulse.
People play the market.
I'm a seller and I want you to buy something, I offer you 3 things and between them there is the one I want sell you.
1kg of icecream 6€
2kg of icecream 7€
1.5kg of icecream 7€
Majority of people would buy 2kg at 7€ and here the joker is 1.5kg of icecream 7€
It doesn't matter if 25% of people buy 1kg at 6€ because 75% of people buy 2kg at 7€ (the one I want sell)
Back to the market.
Why do people buy or sell? Because they perceive price going up or down.
Last decision is biased by price, current prices.
My view, in this case, of a reference point is in the now.
Our mind subconsciously take a reference point and when we perceive price moving away of a certain degree from that point we react (buy or sell).
Each person is individual but when you see people as a collective, what does it happen?
Alex
- #110
- Apr 9, 2015 4:32am Apr 9, 2015 4:32am
- Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
{quote} I understand your point of view and I think yours and mine are two sides of the same coin. I don't know which one is better, I'm analyzing each one indipendent so don't take my words as an end clear point of view. Your point of view, unbiased. Take as reference Tokyo and look how price reacts at London open or whatever. In this case I used a reference of 8 hours ago, it can also be a reference of 1 hour ago, but it is still a past reference. My point of view, biased. Premise, majority of people take biased decision. The act of take a decision...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
{quote} I understand your point of view and I think yours and mine are two sides of the same coin. I don't know which one is better, I'm analyzing each one indipendent so don't take my words as an end clear point of view.
To illustrate.
I own a business Alex, but its a dog of a business. I am trying to offload it.
You show some interest and know nothing about the performance of my business so you ask for my books.
I give you my books and on assessment you find i have been losing money from the very first moment. Do you get a warm fuzzy feeling and want to buy my business?
On your initial feeling, you wouldn't touch it. Why? The probabilities do not favour it working it.
Sure you may save it or turn it around, but the shear fact it isn't working in the first place is a bit of a red flag.
{quote}
Why do people buy or sell? Because they perceive price going up or down.
Last decision is biased by price, current prices.
My view, in this case, of a reference point is in the now.
Our mind subconsciously take a reference point and when we perceive price moving away of a certain degree from that point we react (buy or sell).
Each person is individual but when you see people as a collective, what does it happen?
Performance cannot be manipulated in any way. It is what it is and it is the same for everyone on the surface of this earth.
Why do i trade performance?
I stack the odds of success in my favour. It's simplistic and uncomplicated. I can gain insight into a market and i can assess strength/weakness almost instantly.
I work 'with' institutional money.
I do not need a chart, indicators nor any systems.
You're looking at reference points and price but you're doing that independently. You should see that is a mistake.
Can you see what you are doing Alex?
Regards
{quote} Just realized u summed up my junk in one sentence. Zzz, time for me to learn to write better.
Graphic below expresses my previous post visually.
The graphic is raw. Other static points like bids/offers, handles/halfs, session highs/lows etc need to be used. By doing so, you'll get a running/continuous stream of feedback on EU performance.
By omitting historical price prints, i cut through the bullshit and pick up almost instantly on 'right side' of trade.
regards
- #117
- Edited 3:18am Apr 11, 2015 2:38am | Edited 3:18am
""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."
This below (pics) is my contribution to statistical analysis.
In one point I disagree with you: it's not 95% of times price moves away from the open. It's less.
I considered O-C <= 0.5 pips and more or less only 85% of times price moves above or below the open.
(at least for this pair).Anyway thanks
--- nothing to say ---
{quote} Thanks Neio for this thread. This below (pics) is my contribution to statistical analysis. In one point I disagree with you: it's not 95% of times price moves away from the open. It's less. I considered O-C < 0.5 pips and more or less only 85% of times price moves above or below the open.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
- #119
- Apr 11, 2015 3:35am Apr 11, 2015 3:35am
{quote} Btw Bro, u code to extract these out? (
) and it's not finished yet.But the hard part it's to deal with GMT hour and daylight save period... have to check out if everything is right.
And have to study the output
--- nothing to say ---
{quote} Yes, it took me one whole week to code this piece of software (I'm slow
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...