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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,061
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:07am Apr 9, 2015 2:07am
Quoting alexpi
News is good, I'm still on the fence
Ignore U.K. halifex data entirely for today. Just look at price action.

1) Halifex is a minor indicator compared to what's coming up. It's worth nothing today because it's overshadowed by others (i.e. bank rate)

2) Data is positive by 0.3% only. This is not significant enough.
  • #10,062
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:22am Apr 9, 2015 2:22am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Yup. If this bounce continues, I'm pulling out with whatever losses I have. At the same time, if this falls back down, then it might have all been a preparation to go down to weekly lows. It would be a real dick move for the market to just dip back down and lower (i.e. bull trap) , but I'm not discounting that. Still, current situation isn't looking good or my short. I have my finger on the close button. It'll all depend on price action in the end.
Good god, look at that drop straight to 1.48400. Definitely a bull trap. My suspicions have been confirmed. My condolences to anyone who longed.

Update: We just hit 1.48100 areas.
  • #10,063
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:23am Apr 9, 2015 2:23am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Some support? Yes. But will it hold? It's less likely than the odds of it being breached..
not sure, but I'm gonna take a few longs against it....anf try for 1.4910...risk 12...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #10,064
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:24am Apr 9, 2015 2:24am
quick -12
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #10,065
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:27am Apr 9, 2015 2:27am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Ignore U.K. halifex data entirely for today. Just look at price action. 1) Halifex is a minor indicator compared to what's coming up. It's worth nothing today because it's overshadowed by others (i.e. bank rate) 2) Data is positive by 0.3% only. This is not significant enough.
Morning,

I don't think the BOE are allowed to change the rate this close to the election.
  • #10,066
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:29am Apr 9, 2015 2:29am
Amazing drop, I didn't catch it, but I feel that it's better to be on the fence than on the wrong side with these moves.
  • #10,067
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:31am Apr 9, 2015 2:31am
Quoting anima999
{quote} Morning, I don't think the BOE are allowed to change the rate this close to the election.
They shouldn't. But I've long since given up on conventional probability in 2015.

Everything about 2015 for Forex has gone to overdrive for sheer volatility and sudden surprises. I personally don't think rates will be changed, but I always keep the possibility open in my analysis drawing board.

Quoting alexpi
Amazing drop, I didn't catch it, but I feel that it's better to be on the fence than on the wrong side with these moves.
Not necessarily. eur/usd breached a key support & was below the ichimoku cloud support, as was the gbp/jpy. It was actually somewhat predictable, given the previous price reaction to the FOMC statement.

With recent news & the way that the geppy and euro are headed lower, then it inevitably means that the sterling-dollar must also fall.
  • #10,068
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:31am Apr 9, 2015 2:31am
Quoting alexpi
Amazing drop, I didn't catch it, but I feel that it's better to be on the fence than on the wrong side with these moves.
Anyone have any idea why it happened?
  • #10,069
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:33am Apr 9, 2015 2:33am
Quoting anima999
{quote} Anyone have any idea why it happened?
Refer to my recent posts.

Edit: If you want, I can give you a more detailed response about why the gbp/usd dropped like stone at that point. It might take me some time to write though.
  • #10,070
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:38am Apr 9, 2015 2:38am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Refer to my recent posts. Edit: If you want, I can give you a more detailed response about why the gbp/usd dropped like stone at that point. It might take me some time to write though.
No, i expect you want to go to bed. I think we typed our posts at the same time.
  • #10,071
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:42am Apr 9, 2015 2:42am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Update: Shorted at 1.48641. Not the most optimal short, but I'd prefer to get a clear signal to short rather than to risk a potential loss just so I can get the "best" price. Hard SL at 1.4900, manual soft SL. Targets: 1.48400, 1.4800, 1.47500.
I also added another short at 1.48540 before the bounce and held it. A grand total of 2 whole lots shorting the gbp/usd.

We've breached the initial target of 1.48400, so cautious people can move their SL to just above that, I guess.

I'm still targeting below 1.4800, with the optimal target being 1.47500.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Congratulations to anyone else who shorted the gbp/usd along with me.
  • #10,072
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:43am Apr 9, 2015 2:43am
Quoting anima999
{quote} No, i expect you want to go to bed. I think we typed our posts at the same time.
Money never sleeps.
  • #10,073
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:43am Apr 9, 2015 2:43am
Short on G/J at 178.17. 1/2 DP is negative so I'll TP and see what to do at 177.9

Gonna be cautious here
  • #10,074
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:46am Apr 9, 2015 2:46am
got short on both GJ and GA minutes before the fall. When it drops, with the news being nothing new, I think GJ has the potential to drop to 176.6

Since im already short those two i didn't want to jump into a 3rd pair, but, GN I think has the potential to hit 1.948
  • #10,075
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:50am Apr 9, 2015 2:50am
Quoting raiders
got short on both GJ and GA minutes before the fall. When it drops, with the news being nothing new, I think GJ has the potential to drop to 176.6 Since im already short those two i didn't want to jump into a 3rd pair, but, GN I think has the potential to hit 1.948
If GU breaches 1.4800, expect a STRONG support at the area 1.4770/30 (i.e. 1.47500). That price has been a well tested and maintained support in the past few weeks. It will definitely bounce back couple dozen pips.

I don't think Gj will drop below 177.20/00 today unless we get news or events to further stimulate its decent. and really, hitting 177 is a tall order, since it represents the 100% retracement from the spike we had from the FOMC conference in late March

Edit: it is also within probability that the gbp/usd falls to the 1/2 point between the 23.6% and 0% fibonacci points from the monthly lows & highs.

Update: 1.47800 region hit; next area is 1.47500. Moved hard SL to 1.48150 and locked in 49 pips and 39 pips on each of my shorts respectively.
  • #10,076
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:51am Apr 9, 2015 2:51am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I also added another short at 1.48540 before the bounce and held it. A grand total of 2 whole lots shorting the gbp/usd. We've breached the initial target of 1.48400, so cautious people can move their SL to just above that, I guess. I'm still targeting below 1.4800, with the optimal target being 1.47500. {image} Congratulations to anyone else who shorted the gbp/usd along with me.
Well done, Vermillion! Great trade
  • #10,077
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:53am Apr 9, 2015 2:53am
TP hit, on the fence again

Edit, if 177.9/8 is a strong positive then I'm long with optimal target 179.8 (W1 EMA)
  • #10,078
  • Apr 9, 2015 2:58am Apr 9, 2015 2:58am
Nice trading.
I missed the start and I think its probably too late to jump on the wagon now.
  • #10,079
  • Apr 9, 2015 3:02am Apr 9, 2015 3:02am
Quoting anima999
Nice trading. I missed the start and I think its probably too late to jump on the wagon now.
I wouldn't say so. The optimal target for the short is 175.8, if it flips here we're in a good place to long

GBPUSD will correlate, so two nice opportunities are open here, both ways

Edit: Just remember - It's always easier to enter a losing trade.

Edit2: I'm itching to buy
  • #10,080
  • Apr 9, 2015 3:08am Apr 9, 2015 3:08am
just exited both trades for a very nice and quick 80 and 97 pips. fuck the news im gonna have a drink and try to sleep. prob put a small sell stop out there if theres small pullback on the GN to try and catch what I believe might be left short in it
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