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Weighted Coin Toss Trading

  • Linked: Weighted Coin Toss | Demo Account XXXXX82
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  • #81
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:25pm Apr 8, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Sorry for the delay in reply bazze...it has been a day. I looked at the form and cannot find the name of this being an actual registered charity, so, perhaps you can fill me in. Additionally, it looks like it might be dated from April 2nd. Not trying to be all pissy here, but if this is in fact the case, we are a little early on the donation... But, I tell ya what. IF this is something that you have done this month and if it is an actual charity, I will let it pass. Just need to figure out if this is a charity or if this was to an individual....

I believe the donation was to an individual who needed help paying money for surgery. So it wasn't to a charity but it was very charitable

or at least that is what it seems like after reading the link the sent.
  • #82
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:03pm Apr 8, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} I believe the donation was to an individual who needed help paying money for surgery. So it wasn't to a charity but it was very charitable or at least that is what it seems like after reading the link the sent.

Well, how am I supposed to be a credit stealing whore if he donated to a person before I even got the ball rolling?

This isn't going to be self serving...at all!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #83
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:15pm Apr 8, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Well, how am I supposed to be a credit stealing whore if he donated to a person before I even got the ball rolling? This isn't going to be self serving...at all!
Please guys,don't have to "argue" about this...Maybe I misunderstood what you mean by charity,Magix...I donated $25 to a family who needed money so they can have afford to pay for a brainoperation for their little girl....As you said,paid little to early....But,anyway, I'm glad that I could help them with some coins...
  • #84
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:35pm Apr 8, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting bazze
{quote} Please guys,don't have to "argue" about this...Maybe I misunderstood what you mean by charity,Magix...I donated $25 to a family who needed money so they can have afford to pay for a brainoperation for their little girl....As you said,paid little to early....But,anyway, I'm glad that I could help them with some coins...
lol

Nobody was arguing Bazze.

Great job on the donation, I honestly didn't understand the information as was presented.

I will accept this as your charitable contribution.



Maybe you didn't pay to early, maybe I was just too late in getting this going...did you ever think of that???
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #85
  • Apr 8, 2015 4:55pm Apr 8, 2015 4:55pm
Thank you very much,Magix...Maybe I saw this was comming before you??? SPOOOOOKY...
  • #86
  • Apr 8, 2015 5:56pm Apr 8, 2015 5:56pm
Update....

Second trade explorer added to the mix, thanks to ND00.

This is the fixed version and running with a 1x multiplier...so will effectively be a good sampling for an actual pip counter and for our American Testers to view. Without the Multiplier and without the extra trades, it will definitely be interesting to see how this performs.

Thanks ND!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #87
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:52pm Apr 8, 2015 9:52pm
Rather than use a Martingale multipler, try this idea,
posted here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post7821339
it ramps in and out and from my observations results in a larger overall return if you have a better than 50% success factor.
" check out The Traders Outpost "
  • #88
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:26pm Apr 8, 2015 11:26pm
Quoting Magix
Update.... Second trade explorer added to the mix, thanks to ND00. This is the fixed version and running with a 1x multiplier...so will effectively be a good sampling for an actual pip counter and for our American Testers to view. Without the Multiplier and without the extra trades, it will definitely be interesting to see how this performs. Thanks ND!
I just forced an update of the trade explorer. There are trades up there now.
  • #89
  • Apr 9, 2015 6:42am Apr 9, 2015 6:42am
Quoting nondisclosure00
{quote} I just forced an update of the trade explorer. There are trades up there now.
And it looks Gooooooooooooooooooood!

By eliminating the second trade (code fix), it has actually ramped up the stats showing what a true weighted coin might actually perform like.

Closed trades=9
Winning trades=8

Max Consecutive wins - 5

Now that's actually pretty fucking good!

I am actually glad I kept mine running on the original to see the comparison...with the fix on this, a Lot of risk can be removed from the martingale factor as well as prove itself to be a safe trader for accounts with a lower leverage with just having a multiplier set at 1...no doubles!

Aoooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuga!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #90
  • Edited 7:22pm Apr 9, 2015 6:54pm | Edited 7:22pm
Depending on how you are viewing things...

The weighted coin is complete horseshit...or a barely viable idea.

Personally, I fucking love it!!

The breakdown...

The unfixed original version, got beat down hard today on a trend day...mama always told me there'd be days like this...
The fixed version has slipped it's edge and dropped the overall closing average.



Looks like a loser right?

Strangely enough...because I know the amount of shit trades the original took and can see the fixed version, I have elected to run this for test on a live account...as in, like real money!!

Oh, I know what you must be thinking...this guy is fucking nuts!!

But am I?

Do you see what I see?

My live test is for pure verification that it will continue to trade as was modified and is set to a 1.5 x multiplier. Reason being, I can accept the risk on this for the size of account that it is running on, and really, the modified version has only a single 24 hour period of live testing.

After my tests, until market close wrap up this week, I will be dumping the same pairs on a $500 account just to watch it grow for the new week(s) to come. Barring anything Market Fucking Haywire (BlackSwan), I'd be willing to bet that this will be an easy double account in 2 months.

I know...$500 in 2 months...not a lotta scratch is it?

But what is the risk?

What are the rewards?

Ya see, I play with a lot of automated accounts on live money, have lost a lot of these accounts, but have actually made more. There are some that gain steady, there are some that are pure peaks and valleys, but the end run is...I don't like to keep all my eggs in one basket.

SO!!

Will verify this on real scratch, if all works out, will go for a live launch for next week, and will have this motherfucker paying me over the following weeks!

Oh yes my friends, shit has gotten Real!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #91
  • Apr 9, 2015 9:09pm Apr 9, 2015 9:09pm
Dear MagiX,

Good day,...

I tried to read the whole thread,... but I cant find the latest system that you developed.

Can you be kind enough to point for us in which post number ?

I am also Marti and Mechanic trading lover,....

Thanks,

Budi
  • #92
  • Apr 9, 2015 9:52pm Apr 9, 2015 9:52pm
Quoting budidharma19
Dear MagiX, Good day,... I tried to read the whole thread,... but I cant find the latest system that you developed. Can you be kind enough to point for us in which post number ? I am also Marti and Mechanic trading lover,.... Thanks, Budi
HERE
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #93
  • Apr 10, 2015 10:15am Apr 10, 2015 10:15am
Welp...

The non-mod trader looks like it would live to fight another week, although it did get pants shittingly close to not making it, so much so that there were a stream of messages on a cost average for EURJPY where margin was not available.

On the other side of the coin...heh..
It took greatly a lot of bad trades based on the signal criteria still being present while the trades were triggered out on stop loss.

Closing not only without a loss on the week, but having a net profit for the week is definitely a great sign...I mean, even when this thing is fucking up and tripping over it's own logic, it still managed to come up smelling like a rose.

There are currently 586 pips in the shitter, with a net profit gain. That works out to be 29 trades that would have to have been bad logic in order for this to come up square pips on the week, or if this was just run with a 1x multiplier. I'd have to go back and check, it's actually probably pretty close, will wait until all the smoke clears and the closing bells ring and do a final tally...but, whether it be a little shy of this line or just over, I would go so far as to say that running it after Wednesday on a live account without a multiplier, probably not gunna make any gains.

Summarized...the bad trigger logic on a weighted coin, a more true martingale system...can work!
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  • #94
  • Apr 10, 2015 10:38am Apr 10, 2015 10:38am
As for my live account and because I will be leaving shortly to take on my day, (really, who wants to hang out at their charts on a Friday after London is done??), I've shut them down.

For the most part of TK and London session, even carrying into NY, my trades were swimming with the fish!

With the logic fix and a 1.5 multiplier...managed to come up just above square so that I can close off, walk away and not have any carry trades, over the weekend.

A resounding success?

Well...again, this really is how you look at things. If I was in a net loss, and because it is End of Week and after having only traded less than 24 hours...the idea that trading against the trend is a real shitty idea, no matter how many coins you toss, is actually pretty sound...this still made a profit. Given the range of movements from top to bottom of the some of the pairs being in excess of 200 pips, I'd say it done alright.

Now, if was running through Thursday at the 1.5, today would most likely close in a net loss on the Thursday/Friday trading days, but Monday to Wednesday would still be up...high enough to come up square? I'd have to go back n do a lot of counting to check that out, so, instead, will start fresh next week and see how it goes.

There were a couple of things that I did notice from Live to Demo trading and the fixed version vs the original...
1. A lot my live trades were stopped out before profit or loss...meaning they don't actually show up as red or green in the account history. I don't like that. Not sure if it was broker related or slippage, but by typically never playing with Hard Values on Stops, I can't actually be sure either way. Most of what I test through this broker is set by way of trigger dynamics, so never have hard values in consideration.

2. The triggering logic. I have modified the original trigger to only buy if bid>=Open[1] and sell if bid<=Open[1], but with a 20 pip stop loss value, because of the spread, it doesn't actually solve the problem. I seen one of my trades stopped out, but with the triggering criteria still being available in the same candle...meaning, this idea too could result in a number of double trades in the same candle...we seen how that turned out in the original version. A lot more risk than I would like to see on my personal cash.

Bottom line on the last day of trading...Profit enough to go out n get me a cold soda!

E Haw!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #95
  • Apr 10, 2015 10:42am Apr 10, 2015 10:42am
Live launch for next week...

I don't think so.

I do believe that long run and definitely some days/weeks will be better than others...with at least 1 known issue with the triggering logic, I think it's best to work on solving this issue and perhaps work on adding a little more weight to the coin.

Got some thinking to do on a possible resolution...got all weekend to do it.

Hope ya had a great week, will see ya in the new week for open!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #96
  • Apr 12, 2015 10:59am Apr 12, 2015 10:59am
Aight...

So..after giving this a little thought, I came up with an idea based somewhat loosely on these posts:

Quoting insider999
Hello, I have read post one. Just want to comment on your Roulette assumptions. When red as appeared four times in a row, it has absolutely no bearing on the next spin. Insider
Quoting FXForLife
most 1 to 1 systems 20 pips or over will go (approximately) 10 to 12 losses in a row or less. One of the keys in my opinion is to wait for 2 to 5 losses before starting to double down. Program that into an EA and you will most likely have a winner . it won't make a ton of money at first but you know how compounding goes. kind of a fix on the market...
Quoting cuchuflito
The weighted coin...if you were at a roulette wheel and started off with a single lot on black, and doubled down until you won, how many levels could you go?
Yeah, you talk, I listen...

The 50/50 idea or improving on a coin toss as applied to market, is still intriguing and weighting the coin, still seems reasonably plausible as a trade strategy...but as we know, market trends and chops...in the trends, we can see our weighted coin go into serious situations on guessing for the eventual reversal...or, if we see 5 Heads come up on a coin toss, we guess tails for every subsequent toss...

So...why not, if we see Heads as coming up more on the coin toss, to continue to guess Heads?

In applying basic market rules, if price is going up, be a buyer and if price is coming down, be a seller...if the coin keeps coming up heads, keep guessing heads!

So, I've kept the 2x multiplier, shortened up the profit range, kept the same size loss range and am triggering in favor of the continuation of the most common flip o the coin.

How, you might ask?

Well...this may or may not fly as an actual idea...so I will keep that little nugget as my own little secret and see how the week plays out.

New Explorer added to the thread header.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #97
  • Apr 12, 2015 9:12pm Apr 12, 2015 9:12pm
Looks promising...
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  • #98
  • Apr 12, 2015 9:27pm Apr 12, 2015 9:27pm
Worked out okay for the AUDUSD too...
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  • #99
  • Apr 12, 2015 9:29pm Apr 12, 2015 9:29pm
EURAUD...
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  • #100
  • Apr 14, 2015 2:03am Apr 14, 2015 2:03am
Quoting Magix
EURAUD... {image}

How many demo bucks are you risking with that trade?
Demo millions
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