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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,001
  • Edited 9:50am Apr 8, 2015 9:27am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting Vermillion
Note: My longs for cable at 1.48924 are still intact. Price came within around 6 pips of hitting hard SL, though. Also, max TP zone for gbp/usd moved to 1.5000. Potential manual closing still applies, however. Update 2: hard SL now moved to 1.49210. 29 pips locked in as profit.

Dudley's hawkish outburst just hours prior to the FOMC minutes news couldn't breach my hard SL at 1.49210. Hitting 1.5000/1.49900 is still possible, however. I'll have to watch the price action more diligently from now, though. My hard SLs should only be a last resort.

Based on current correlation...by the time eur/usd hits 1.8700-ish again, we should get the cable to around the optimal TP area mentioned before. This assumes upward intraday trend is still intact.

All bets are off for the FOMC, however. Need more data & market reaction.

Note: I was wondering why I wasn't trading the eur/usd much this week, and now i remember why. It's too volatile in terms of sudden price spikes. Thank you, Dudley, for reminding yet again WHY I'm trading the cable and not the eur/usd.

Update: Eur/usd just hit 1.08100/1.0800. I am currently very thankful that I decided to long the cable instead, but this pretty much makes hitting 1.5000/1.49900 unlikely for now, unless things change in the next hour or so. I have my finger on the close button for my long.
  • #10,002
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:56am Apr 8, 2015 9:56am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Dudley's hawkish outburst just hours prior to the FOMC minutes news couldn't breach my hard SL at 1.49210. Hitting 1.5000/1.49900 is still possible, however. I'll have to watch the price action more diligently from now, though. My hard SLs should only be a last resort. Based on current correlation...by the time eur/usd hits 1.8700-ish again, we should get the cable to around the optimal TP area mentioned before. This assumes upward intraday trend is still intact. All bets are off for the FOMC, however. Need more data & market reaction....
Update: SL hit. Pocketed only 29 pips. Extremely large Oil reserves (USA) caused the high drop. Really high USA Oil reserves + USD hawkish Dudley = we're not hitting beyond 1.4980/1.49700 prior to FOMC.

Goddamn it. Why couldn't only one of you happen? Why both?

Good chance of retesting 1.49000 now.
  • #10,003
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:04am Apr 8, 2015 10:04am
fib level sell

we shall see
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  • #10,004
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:13am Apr 8, 2015 10:13am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Update: SL hit. Pocketed only 29 pips. Extremely large Oil reserves (USA) caused the high drop. Really high USA Oil reserves + USD hawkish Dudley = we're not hitting beyond 1.4980/1.49700 prior to FOMC. Goddamn it. Why couldn't only one of you happen? Why both? Good chance of retesting 1.49000 now.
Sold the gbp/usd at 1.49400 for a quick scalp down to test 1.49000/1.48800. Manual soft SL, hard SL at 1.49800. If price breaks 1.49000, 1.4870/50 is in order as the next "main" support (with a chance of scraping 10-20pips lower), but given that we've only 3 hours before the FOMC, this will probably be my last trade before the news comes out.

Maybe.

Update: I take my words back from before, Dudley. No "thank you"s for you. You and US oil reserves have cost me hundreds of dollars in profit.
  • #10,005
  • Edited 10:57am Apr 8, 2015 10:22am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} I'm with you guys, but on GBPCAD. The correlation is strong today so sink or swim for all of us
I'm okay with this

Edit: Moved hard stop to +230 pips total, good day
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  • #10,006
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:45am Apr 8, 2015 10:45am
I'm callin the 179 dp support............. fun today.....my buddy Ray....
  • #10,007
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:02am Apr 8, 2015 11:02am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
I'm callin the 179 dp support............. fun today.....my buddy Ray....
me too. seems like ive been waiting weeks for this. plan to go long at some point now.

as long as it hold through tomorrow
  • #10,008
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:04am Apr 8, 2015 11:04am
If any of you use Ichimoku then you may also have noticed that GJ and Cable giving of buys signals in the 1H and 4H timeframes.
Its just the news putting me off positioning for a longer term trade here.
  • #10,009
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:14am Apr 8, 2015 11:14am
Quoting AllyB
fib level sell we shall see {image}
closed for +20

179 is strong support for sure
  • #10,010
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:14am Apr 8, 2015 11:14am
Quoting anima999
If any of you use Ichimoku then you may also have noticed that GJ and Cable giving of buys signals in the 1H and 4H timeframes. Its just the news putting me off positioning for a longer term trade here.
thanks anima999.....I go looky....
  • #10,011
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:19am Apr 8, 2015 11:19am
EU is not playing with dustbin levels today so not posting or playing EU today
  • #10,012
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:21am Apr 8, 2015 11:21am
A slow fade out of here would point to the completion of what so far has been a 5 wave correction
  • #10,013
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:23am Apr 8, 2015 11:23am
Quoting anima999
If any of you use Ichimoku then you may also have noticed that GJ and Cable giving of buys signals in the 1H and 4H timeframes. Its just the news putting me off positioning for a longer term trade here.
I started using the RISOMA recently and thats been working great for me. I agree with the news thing.

Long term my target of 190 is still in tact today will determine if im in for the ride
  • #10,014
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:25am Apr 8, 2015 11:25am
Quoting raiders
{quote} I started using the RISOMA recently and thats been working great for me. I agree with the news thing. Long term my target of 190 is still in tact today will determine if im in for the ride
yea I agree ... and would much rather be buying then selling GJ
  • #10,015
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:26am Apr 8, 2015 11:26am
Quoting Mpt
A slow fade out of here would point to the completion of what so far has been a 5 wave correction
What TF are you using? I was trying to do some wave analysis yesterday but struggled with the correction. I don't trade waves but I find I'm generally quite interested in seeing them.

EDIT
Think I got it on the 4H.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What about...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Errrm, probably can't ignore the recent low in the second picture.
  • #10,016
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:26am Apr 8, 2015 11:26am
Quoting raiders
{quote} I started using the RISOMA recently and thats been working great for me. I agree with the news thing. Long term my target of 190 is still in tact today will determine if im in for the ride
Me too I have no stop on the buy......gj.....and I'm going off shopping, be back after the FOMC......brave Texas boy.....thinks GJ is king.....must go upward if it's really king.....so....no friggin stop....
looks impulsive on the upmove.....abc.....the down move was in 5 waves, that's a correction that whole time if you can find 5 waves....
  • #10,017
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:28am Apr 8, 2015 11:28am
Quoting anima999
{quote} What TF are you using? I was trying to do some wave analysis yesterday but struggled with the correction. I don't trade waves but I find I'm generally quite interested in seeing them.
It's early in the morning here. I'll reply tomorrow.
  • #10,018
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:30am Apr 8, 2015 11:30am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} Me too I have no stop on the buy......gj.....and I'm going off shopping, be back after the FOMC......brave Texas boy.....thinks GJ is king.....must go upward if it's really king.....so....no friggin stop....
you live in texas? we might be neighbors LOL
  • #10,019
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:36am Apr 8, 2015 11:36am
Quoting raiders
{quote} I started using the RISOMA recently and thats been working great for me. I agree with the news thing. Long term my target of 190 is still in tact today will determine if im in for the ride
I had a look at the RISOMA in aliens thread. I struggled to hget my head round it all but will look again.
  • #10,020
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:37am Apr 8, 2015 11:37am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} closed for +20 179 is strong support for sure
well crap ... hate it when I leave so many pips on a trade

got a pending buy at 178.54
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