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  • #8,081
  • Apr 7, 2015 11:35pm Apr 7, 2015 11:35pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,082
  • Apr 7, 2015 11:41pm Apr 7, 2015 11:41pm
Quoting StrayDog
This big gorilla is set to jump into oil futures market About USO rolling CL positions... "The oil ETFs hold about a third of the combined open interest in May WTI futures, traded on the Nymex and ICE, according to ETF Securities. " USO Roll Dates Rebalance Start Rebalance End April 7, 2015 April 10, 2015
OK, rebalancing....shifting long? No guarantee? The storage release data has become a pretty big mover, we'll see if a clue is there tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,083
  • Apr 7, 2015 11:45pm Apr 7, 2015 11:45pm
Ima have to take a shot at one of these UVXY call verticals, see where they fill, you could use one to catch a spike
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,084
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:32am Apr 8, 2015 12:32am
if you build it, they will come
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,085
  • Apr 8, 2015 8:28am Apr 8, 2015 8:28am
Watch out, here comes Dudley.

G'mornin, SDog...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,086
  • Edited 9:31am Apr 8, 2015 9:06am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting The Fool
Watch out, here comes Dudley. G'mornin, SDog...
Hi TF... stage is setting... for something... + .

Add-on
Hm... very large Oil inventory...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,087
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:47am Apr 8, 2015 9:47am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} got the close below it now next level is to close below 17805 on the DOW and then we should see some good bear action for the remainder of the month
The DOW has given back its early gains already, now can it sustain and close below the above quote today, FOMC minutes later
  • #8,088
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:58am Apr 8, 2015 9:58am
Buy the dip on CL ?
looking to sell CL Jun 41 put.... (36 DTE)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,089
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:04am Apr 8, 2015 10:04am
Quoting StrayDog
Buy the dip on CL ? looking to sell CL Jun 41 put.... (36 DTE)
I'm not trading oil at the moment, that a lot of storage with them numbers
  • #8,090
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:09am Apr 8, 2015 10:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm not trading oil at the moment, that a lot of storage with them numbers
Yeah, I am not in the hurry also... USD is rising again, Iran is pressuring to sell... That was a terrific 2 day up move... It stopped right at resistance @ $54... too bad I didn't press SELL button there...

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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,091
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:10pm Apr 8, 2015 12:10pm
expecting a major move during and after this FOMC minutes, we've been in the last FOMC candle range without testing both top or bottom of usd$ from last FOMC 3 WEEKS AGO.
  • #8,092
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:42pm Apr 8, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
expecting a major move during and after this FOMC minutes, we've been in the last FOMC candle range without testing both top or bottom of usd$ from last FOMC 3 WEEKS AGO.
Yep, it has been 3 weeks of poop. Falling oil and rising $ are bear signs....but FOMC effect 3 weeks ago was a bull party, you'd have to expect the same again from the minutes of the hyper-dovish Yellen Fed's FOMC, terrified of what the junkie market might do if they tighten one tick. I don't have any new short term trades running, content to see what's what after the dust settles.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,093
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:43pm Apr 8, 2015 12:43pm
Quoting StrayDog
Buy the dip on CL ? looking to sell CL Jun 41 put.... (36 DTE)
buy the storage dip has been a trusty trade pretty much all year
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,094
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:53pm Apr 8, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep, it has been 3 weeks of poop. Falling oil and rising $ are bear signs....but FOMC effect 3 weeks ago was a bull party, you'd have to expect the same again from the minutes of the hyper-dovish Yellen Fed's FOMC, terrified of what the junkie market might do if they tighten one tick. I don't have any new short term trades running, content to see what's what after the dust settles.
yep agree but we never had that NFP number then, but I'm doing a pending straddle on DOW futures
  • #8,095
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:15pm Apr 8, 2015 1:15pm
lol, teddy bears last 10 minutes, jolly good show
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,096
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:21pm Apr 8, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting The Fool
lol, teddy bears last 10 minutes, jolly good show
Another pro bear trap...

BUT, daily high isn't breached on /ES... so... who the f... knows.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,097
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:22pm Apr 8, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Another pro bear trap...
yah, makes me want to become a /ES scalper...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,098
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:30pm Apr 8, 2015 1:30pm
/CL giving everything back, another BTFD setup in the making? No big show of USD weakness, though...yet...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,099
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:29pm Apr 8, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting The Fool
/CL giving everything back, another BTFD setup in the making? No big show of USD weakness, though...yet...
Highlights of the FOMC minutes for the March 17-18, 2015 meeting:

  1. Fed officials favoring liftoff later in 2015 cited dollar, oil
  2. Officials
  3. Several participants at Fed meeting judged that economic data likely to warrant June rate hike
  4. Other participants anticipate initial rate hike more likely later in 2015 due to impact of US dollar and oil prices
  5. Minutes say a couple of participants (Kocherlakota and Evans for sure) suggested holding off raising rates until 2016
  6. Participants expect fairly gradual pace of rate increases; not necessarily at every meeting
  7. Minutes say further improvement in labor market
  8. Full text of the FOMC minutes

The main headline is Bloomberg's and not that it reads 'shows' not 'says'. The minutes say 'several'. Does Bullard, Fisher and George count as several?
It's hawkish overall. Definitely keeps a June hike on the table but remember this was before NFP and some other recent data. The dollar took some time but it's going now.


http://news.forexlive.com/!/fomc-minutes-april-8-2015-20150408

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,100
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:31pm Apr 8, 2015 2:31pm
trying to fill a USO May/May4 $21 call calendar for $0.05, sold Apr SPY $211/$212 calls for $0.18
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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