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  • #8,061
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:02pm Apr 7, 2015 2:02pm
SDog your $0.04 entry on a USO Apr/Apr4 $20 call calendar is looking good, wish I had been able to fill that...

I wonder if maybe strong USD is gonna push down on crude a bit....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,062
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:14pm Apr 7, 2015 2:14pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} and what are the chance we could see a complete reversal in the DOW today, some wild shit is happening, a close below 17880 today, eventually that NFP number could play out maybe after the FOMC minutes
may get this, I'm hoping anyway. USD/y looking for a pull back too
  • #8,063
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:21pm Apr 7, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting The Fool
SDog your $0.04 entry on a USO Apr/Apr4 $20 call calendar is looking good, wish I had been able to fill that... I wonder if maybe strong USD is gonna push down on crude a bit....?
I only bought 5 of those, and one got filled for $0.04, the rest for $0.05...

Maybe we should buy a strike higher call calendar also, the 21 you wanted... idk...
Thinking about fat premiums in /CL futures options, but I don't want to sell puts on such a crazy up day.
I made that mistake already when I "defended" my short put position on USO, with calls that I sold on a down day... a costly mistake.
I am hoping of a push down... Closed my short EUR (from 1.0858) for some beer money...

Add-on
I bought-to-close the Apr USO 17 puts... sold for $0.51, bought back for $0.08... there was no need to defend them, they were briefly in-the-money... but I got scared... plenty to learn about this shit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,064
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:22pm Apr 7, 2015 2:22pm
Hi mate, nice move in Oil huh? . Could be that full scale USD reversal I was waiting for @ May - am starting to short USD (started week ago when Oil broke 47,337 - and 48 above). Mostly preparing to shoot GU heavy after Brittish elections, but already started to load... Also Gold broke 1200. I recall you hold Aug above 51? SaP about 2085 holds so far and also 2095 pretty important just a bit above, so equities could finally correct. But still got some juice left.

Take care, T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,065
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:22pm Apr 7, 2015 2:22pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} may get this, I'm hoping anyway. USD/y looking for a pull back too
a player might catch a break on a little dip in US crude....I am m/l out of it, still recovering from a very nice long weekend, head not quite in the game....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,066
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:24pm Apr 7, 2015 2:24pm
Check out UVXY, SDog - are you still throwing money at that? One of these days that mofo is gonna spike....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,067
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:30pm Apr 7, 2015 2:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} a player might catch a break on a little dip in US crude....I am m/l out of it, still recovering from a very nice long weekend, head not quite in the game....
a close in the DOW below 17880 may help the crude to fall back, we shall see in the last half hour of cash market
  • #8,068
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:37pm Apr 7, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} a close in the DOW below 17880 may help the crude to fall back, we shall see in the last half hour of cash market
may be too much of an ask, the hourly candle on the futures will trade beneath it but its the cash market that leads so if it can;t close beneath 17880 then the bulls would win. We have 24 minutes
  • #8,069
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:40pm Apr 7, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting The Fool
Check out UVXY, SDog - are you still throwing money at that? One of these days that mofo is gonna spike....
Nope, that is one hell of a money burner... The numero uno play to short the spike, plus it is a self-destructing one... IF we get a correction... Much easier to sell vol spikes than to buy ones. But it is sooooo tempting to buy... possibly I will not resist, sometimes . But there are better plays than that low POP trades.

Hm... EUR is 40 pips lower from the place I shorted it... ah patience... Can I get please some patience and a bit of luck, from idk, Easter Bunny??? Please?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,070
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:40pm Apr 7, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} a close in the DOW below 17880 may help the crude to fall back, we shall see in the last half hour of cash market
got 17899 at the moment and still coming down
  • #8,071
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:43pm Apr 7, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} got 17899 at the moment and still coming down
need another 15 points lower
  • #8,072
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:57pm Apr 7, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} and what are the chance we could see a complete reversal in the DOW today, some wild shit is happening, a close below 17880 today, eventually that NFP number could play out maybe after the FOMC minutes
only 4 minutes left and we're nearly there
  • #8,073
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:59pm Apr 7, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} only 4 minutes left and we're nearly there
You already got that on SPX and Naz... good thinking CG... really some wild shit today.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,074
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:05pm Apr 7, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} and what are the chance we could see a complete reversal in the DOW today, some wild shit is happening, a close below 17880 today, eventually that NFP number could play out maybe after the FOMC minutes
got the close below it now next level is to close below 17805 on the DOW and then we should see some good bear action for the remainder of the month
  • #8,075
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:08pm Apr 7, 2015 3:08pm
If the DOW CAN TAKE 17600 level I've mentioned a few times before then I'm looking for a 1000 point drop in indices
  • #8,076
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:09pm Apr 7, 2015 3:09pm
that was a good catch, Cecil. Maybe they're setting up for a US stocks takedown in anticipation of a crummy Q1 earnings season...stronger USD and daily doses of Greek default risk rumors not helping the bulls, either. I need to look at some bearish index spreads & maybe get in some tomorrow...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,077
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:14pm Apr 7, 2015 3:14pm
Quoting The Fool
that was a good catch, Cecil. Maybe they're setting up for a US stocks takedown in anticipation of a crummy Q1 earnings season...stronger USD and daily doses of Greek default risk rumors not helping the bulls, either. I need to look at some bearish index spreads & maybe get in some tomorrow...
thx, on crude look at the weekly and monthly chart they look bull strong, could go as high as $70 plus before seeing any pull back
  • #8,078
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:18pm Apr 7, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} thx, on crude look at the weekly and monthly chart they look bull strong, could go as high as $70 plus before seeing any pull back
yep, I have a variety of long oil trades running, thought about looking for a little pullback in the short-term, but there are prolly better trades. Ya'll have a nice evening...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,079
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:51pm Apr 7, 2015 3:51pm
This big gorilla is set to jump into oil futures market

About USO rolling CL positions...
"The oil ETFs hold about a third of the combined open interest in May WTI futures, traded on the Nymex and ICE, according to ETF Securities. "

USO Roll Dates

Rebalance Start Rebalance End
April 7, 2015 April 10, 2015
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,080
  • Edited 11:26pm Apr 7, 2015 11:12pm | Edited 11:26pm
Quoting The Fool
Check out UVXY, SDog - are you still throwing money at that? One of these days that mofo is gonna spike....
....also Sep $39/$40 for $0.03.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-07_UVXY.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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