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Let's Trade Options

  • #8,041
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:35am Apr 6, 2015 10:35am
Quoting The Fool
weaker USD will help most of my book, look for fiber to run towards $1.12 in the next week or 2; crude should bounce, UST's too, US indices, we'll see...yet another roll back on the Fed's ffr hike date, could be bullish for stocks after the dust settles.
I thot it was easy to see a NFP miss would be bullish risk assets, but with the market closed Friday, I didn't get anything new on in response to that suspicion. Next chance for bearish action for the US indices will be some big let downs in earnings, I guess...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,042
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:38am Apr 6, 2015 10:38am
Quoting StrayDog
Sold a couple of SPY May 212/214 Call Spreads, for $0.60 CR. ... one minute later --> better prices...
now if you want $60 you can do May $213/$215....maybe better later in the week...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,043
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:45am Apr 6, 2015 10:45am
If USO is gonna push up near $1 a day, look at the Apr $20 calls, long for $0.13.

I am a little skeptical of the oil move's sustainability - Saudis actually cut the price to the US and Europe...we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,044
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:10am Apr 6, 2015 11:10am
Quoting The Fool
... I am a little skeptical of the oil move's sustainability -....
Same here... But volatility is amazing... 6% up today. IMO - it will give back at least 1/3 of it today or tomorrow.
On the other hand, it is rumors/news/speculations related moves, so who the f... knows.



SnP is finally exhausted... (buy the 2 point dip, buy the dip...)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,045
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:24am Apr 6, 2015 11:24am
SPY has not been able to make a lasting move below the 100d sma for SIX MONTHS. I'd guess we see $210 this week....anyway, I'm not selling anything out in May until I see that, otherwise I will throw pennies at long-dated fotm put calendars or bflies....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-06_spy.png Size: 97 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,046
  • Apr 6, 2015 12:27pm Apr 6, 2015 12:27pm
Watching the video here ---> 5 Attributes of a Successful Options Trader

Summary of the Top 5 Attributes of a Successful Options Trader:

  1. Humility
  2. Risk Management
  3. Consistency
  4. A bread and butter trade
  5. The X Factor


Add-on
Hm... I would have to define what would be my options bread & butter trade...

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,047
  • Apr 6, 2015 1:32pm Apr 6, 2015 1:32pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hm... I would have to define what would be my options bread & butter trade...
By far the easiest way to make money in options is by selling otm options Karen the Super Trader style. (or njr style - I wonder how he's doing?)...but of course, that is a trading style for those with portfolio margin, with quite large equity. But, if you can get there, you can be patient, make your b&b trades, and take shots at more "meaty" trades when obvious opportunities arise...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,048
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:39pm Apr 6, 2015 5:39pm
only thing I filled today was HYG Apr $92 long calls for $0.10, tried Apr USO $17 put calendar, missed by 2c on a $0.06 debit try. I was surprised by the move down in /ZB & TLT, but I see it is bouncing back a lil in early Asia
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,049
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:11pm Apr 6, 2015 6:11pm
'tis the season
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,050
  • Apr 7, 2015 6:24am Apr 7, 2015 6:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} By far the easiest way to make money in options is by selling otm options Karen the Super Trader style. (or njr style - I wonder how he's doing?)...but of course, that is a trading style for those with portfolio margin, with quite large equity. But, if you can get there, you can be patient, make your b&b trades, and take shots at more "meaty" trades when obvious opportunities arise...
Yeah, totally agree about selling junk otm options.

Having PM account is a great help for ANY form of trading though, After all, "it takes money to make money".
Margin req are smaller on PM acc, if you want to sell junk (and for everything else)... That kind of trading takes a good stomach also, because that options can go triple in value and still expire worthless at the end.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,051
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:13am Apr 7, 2015 7:13am
I filled the MRO calendar above for $0.25, trying to fill a USO May/May4 $20 call calendar for $0.04....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,052
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:19am Apr 7, 2015 7:19am
Quoting The Fool
I filled the MRO calendar above for $0.25, trying to fill a USO May/May4 $20 call calendar for $0.04....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,053
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:58am Apr 7, 2015 7:58am
Oil is just wild today...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,054
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:23am Apr 7, 2015 8:23am
Quoting StrayDog
Oil is just wild today...
and what are the chance we could see a complete reversal in the DOW today, some wild shit is happening, a close below 17880 today, eventually that NFP number could play out maybe after the FOMC minutes
  • #8,055
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:41am Apr 7, 2015 8:41am
Hey CG!

Idk man... As I said before, I completely lost the will to guess where the indices could go... I missed 3 DAX trades today (scalps), because suddenly I have a 7 points difference between quotas on TradingView, which use FXCM data, and IB... usually the difference is just 1 or max 2 points... I was AGAIN "penny wise and pound foolish"... well, I am still relatively young, there is still time to learn... (sarcasm alert) ---> when you want to catch a fast moving shit, you gotta be aggressive.

About indices... I currently do not see any reason for lets say retesting ATH, seems like waiting game again, but this FOMC is not that important, no press conference... waiting for earnings, and estimates are already lower... idk... range is ok also, I guess...

Add-on
All I did today is some USO call calendars and I shorted the EUR, small trade, from 1.0858... looking really weak on 4h chart
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,056
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:59am Apr 7, 2015 8:59am
Hm...

BANK OF AMERICA: We're heading for an earnings recession

Preparing another bear trap? You know --> we lower expectations, and after results come not so bad, than we celebrate and go higher AGAIN?
Companies just increase buy-back programs and raise dividends... pffff... so many ways to keep this high.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,057
  • Apr 7, 2015 9:07am Apr 7, 2015 9:07am
Quoting StrayDog
Hey CG! Idk man... As I said before, I completely lost the will to guess where the indices could go... I missed 3 DAX trades today (scalps), because suddenly I have a 7 points difference between quotas on TradingView, which use FXCM data, and IB... usually the difference is just 1 or max 2 points... I was AGAIN "penny wise and pound foolish"... well, I am still relatively young, there is still time to learn... (sarcasm alert) ---> when you want to catch a fast moving shit, you gotta be aggressive. About indices... I currently do not see any reason...
Indices are good pairs to trade, recently DOW and DAX, higher and higher we go but in the back of my mind is that NFP number. Very rarely its forgotten or ignored by those big ass traders
  • #8,058
  • Apr 7, 2015 10:17am Apr 7, 2015 10:17am
Quoting StrayDog
Hm... BANK OF AMERICA: We're heading for an earnings recession Preparing another bear trap?
Are there any bears left?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,059
  • Apr 7, 2015 10:42am Apr 7, 2015 10:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Are there any bears left?
Maybe in the woods. But hey, there's one...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,060
  • Edited 11:07am Apr 7, 2015 10:56am | Edited 11:07am
Hm... CL Jun 42 put... 37 DTE (May 14th is expiry)

Attached Image


Looking at chart, IF Oil did bottomed, then last support should be around $44... This is Jun $42 put... well bellow that, and 97% POP according to IB.
I would like to now where is that, probably right on 2nd standard deviation, then?

$300 for that... On my Reg-T account, margin req is about EUR 2,000...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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