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Weighted Coin Toss Trading

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  • #41
  • Apr 7, 2015 11:55am Apr 7, 2015 11:55am
Quoting jmn5611
3. On OB and OS I have to roll with Gann on this one. There is no such thing as OB or OS in and of itself. Don't sell something because it is at an all time high and vice versa.
Of course there is such things as OB and OS...but even in this, I am using the very loosest definition because I am not actually shooting for an all out reversal, I am playing the odds on what I consider a reasonable expectation.

IF we tried to apply the same strategy to a pair that moved 30 pips per day, playing a 10 pip brick with a 20 pip stoploss, wouldn't actually make sense...in that, by the time the trigger cleared and that spread was covered, we couldn't actually be sure if it would every make it to a prosperity stop...that is assuming that it is oscillating 30pips directionally per day...

So, going back to the pairs in trade, I am working with pairs who have now an ATR that this idea can actually function in...a little more weight on the coin, as it were.

IF we want to talk about OBOS, let's have a look at the indicators I have chosen and how they are actually being used while working on a real market application.

Strictly using Stochastics as an OB/OS indicator too would most likely see the account under a doubledown strategy get consumed as well...Sell, when price enters the OB area...but when and how often? Renko a chart up on 10pips, apply the 20 Stochs and have a look...in itself, the first run, or even what we seen on the AUD crosses during Kiwi Session last night would have seen this account blown seven ways from Sunday.

Let's too, take a look at just the CCI.

Strategize this and what are we looking at? Buying/selling the cross over? Buying/selling when it is in peak strength? Buying/Selling the fade?

We have to keep in mind that for the strategy to be applied, it has to be universally applicable, otherwise there really is no validity.

Let's take a look at what we do know. Market plays in 2 cycles, range and trend. If we come up with a strategy that works great in a range, it will typically get consumed by the trend. If we come up with a strategy that works well in the trend, we become equally as fucked when the chop hits as when the trend hit in the range.

So, really...all I am looking at doing is weighting my coin for a better than even distribution in my favor by utilizing the ranges of oscillation and apply reasonable expectation.

As for the death trade...well...I will need to see how many levels can conceivably be hit before I can effectively build a strategy around this...expectation on this...
1. Limit the max number of trades in the multiplier before restarting at the primary lot size.
2. Look to trade off market sessions.
3. Additional filtering that may limit the number of circumstances.
4. A combination of them all...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #42
  • Edited 12:39pm Apr 7, 2015 12:15pm | Edited 12:39pm
Insider..I like you...you've shown a lot of brass, added your input, stated your position and are seemingly effective in your communication.

So, please allow me to clarify a few things here...

Quoting insider999
Magix, there is no need for being defensive with me.
I wasn't being defensive...If I was feeling tender and sensitive, I'd just tell you to go fuck yourself...read back through my history, I am not one known for pulling punches.

You see, the issue with public forums is that people have ways of getting distracted, and from there shit goes bad...fast. The point you were trying to make, is actually valid...but not to the thread nor to the logic of what is being attempted.

For all intents and purposes, it would be the same if you came in and said, all of the roulette tables in your local casino use Green and Red, so this idea can't work.
(see what I'm saying?)

The logic isn't about the most literal sense of roulette and coin tossing as much as it is about the ideas of weighing probabilities. In this, I am not defending my system, nor touting it as a holy grail, and am in fact reasonably sure that it will fail...all this is, is a comfortable beginning. The first steps in a thousand mile journey.

Quoting insider999
I will read more and try to get the gist of your thinking.
To be honest, thinking like me isn't to your benefit, nor is it to mine. Continuing to challenge my statements and see outside of the limited scope of my thinking, is.

I don't doubt you in your words, nor will I attempt to downplay the relevance of your experience on the roulette table...in fact, I will state that if you have longevity in any gambling aspect, you are definitely somebody that is worth listening to.

I think you already have a fair sense of what I am saying, because your reply isn't a muttering of ignorance. So...If you can take your knowledge and lend me your perspective and keep it thread relevant...I think we could kick some serious ass!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #43
  • Apr 7, 2015 6:28pm Apr 7, 2015 6:28pm
Update...

I have figured out how to eliminate the double trades issue of this silly bitch, so, will be taking some time out to do this...

But check it out...

69 trades closed, 41 winners, even with the double trades we are sitting at 59.4% winning!!
Take them silly motherfuckers out and we are at 56 closed, 38 winners, sitting at 67%...

Close to 70% possible winning?

You do realize what this means right? For at least 2 days per week, this is a profitable trader without a martingale...the MG only makes it a little more exciting and a little more profitable...

Weighted coin...pshhhhhhhh, I'd take that!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #44
  • Apr 7, 2015 6:37pm Apr 7, 2015 6:37pm
Quoting Magix
Update... I have figured out how to eliminate the double trades issue of this silly bitch, so, will be taking some time out to do this... But check it out... 69 trades closed, 41 winners, even with the double trades we are sitting at 59.4% winning!! Take them silly motherfuckers out and we are at 56 closed, 38 winners, sitting at 67%... Close to 70% possible winning? You do realize what this means right? For at least 2 days per week, this is a profitable trader without a martingale...the MG only makes it a little more exciting and a little more...
Excellent work. How solid would this be for us poor Americans on 50:1?
  • #45
  • Apr 7, 2015 6:45pm Apr 7, 2015 6:45pm
So...who wants to play?

Some of you know me, some of you don't...whatever.

I do share with this community as well as with another and have provided a number of different free traders and logics that are still quite profitable today. Some of the ones I considered best were shared with a smaller more select group that was willing to help others. It's kind of a pay it forward kinda thing...

Donations.

Myself personally, and a fist full of friends work in a smaller community, generating funds for charities, globally.

So...

If you are down, I think I could take this and share it along the same lines.

Doing this, you need to realize a couple of things.
1. I don't care what charity you donate to, but I do need to see proof, screenshot or a scanned copy of your donation.
2. This doesn't make us pals, nor give you any right to request special treatment or modifications for what you see fit. Though I may take consideration and update...it don't mean anything more than if I can improve on an idea, I am definitely down with that.
3. If you lose your ass in market, I don't care. That's your problem, not mine. I take no responsibility for your losses and will not expect you to share your gains.
4. If you donate to a charity and get a copy, don't upload it to other sites or share it with pals...really, I only typically shoot for a $5 usd donation. If you know somebody that can't afford that, they shouldn't be trading anyways.

If I get enough interest, I will consider throwing together a little package of both the Renko Charts that I am using, an open parameter .ex4 of the same EA in test, with the same defaults as is being traded and a quick set of instructions. If you don't know anything about charts, EAs, or trading...feel free to ask, but again, I am not your bitch for a $5 bill that goes to the charity of your choice.

IF this idea goes through, I will update the primary thread with a link to the thread I will open in the COMMERCIAL section of FF for the support community and testing of this EA and will keep any updates on the idea available through that thread. Any other discussion, is welcome here.

IF you openly post a donation here, prior to my getting this underway, you have given out of the goodness of your heart, but will receive no considerations...maybe I do this, maybe I don't...

CLEAR?

Let me know via post in thread if you are down.
Don't send me PMs!!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #46
  • Apr 7, 2015 6:51pm Apr 7, 2015 6:51pm
Quoting ChicagoRob
{quote} Excellent work. How solid would this be for us poor Americans on 50:1?

Great question.

I don't know.

The 50:1 is definitely a consideration when playing with a martingale, but if you don't use the multiplier, a 70% win rate can still actually generate a profit.

Additionally, there are a few places that you can go that snub their noses at US regulations and still allow you to play by the un-restricted rules that the rest of the planet does.

Brother Paul at the other house and another broker have been kind enough to extend options.

After that, testing it is the only way you will be able to see this...perhaps a side by side might lend itself to the idea???

One thing I do know.

Once every 2 months, GBPUSD, EURUSD and AUDUSD do go on a RIP. These will show a great deal of losses as their retrace range on a Martingale will certainly hit thresholds on accounts of any size...Though I have only tested this on regular charts, I cannot be sure that it won't have the same impact on Renkos.

Strategy...play other pairs until your demo sees these busts and then add them to the mill.

Been doing that since I wrote the DeadCat and been churning chips, since.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #47
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:18pm Apr 7, 2015 7:18pm
Quoting Magix
So...who wants to play? Some of you know me, some of you don't...whatever. I do share with this community as well as with another and have provided a number of different free traders and logics that are still quite profitable today. Some of the ones I considered best were shared with a smaller more select group that was willing to help others. It's kind of a pay it forward kinda thing... Donations. Myself personally, and a fist full of friends work in a smaller community, generating funds for charities, globally. So... If you are down, I think I...
I'm in the U.S., but I'm down.
  • #48
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:25pm Apr 7, 2015 7:25pm
Quoting nondisclosure00
{quote} I'm in the U.S., but I'm down.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #49
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:27pm Apr 7, 2015 7:27pm
humm.. interesting..

are you using M2 ? or M5 ?

I'm not sure to understand, you use a martingale and you set a SL of 20pips ?

While you dont close with Sl of 20pip, you add new position with martingale factor each time CCI crossing 100 ?

is that true ?
  • #50
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:30pm Apr 7, 2015 7:30pm
Quoting ForexSamsam
humm.. interesting.. are you using M2 ? or M5 ? I'm not sure to understand, you use a martingale and you set a SL of 20pips ? While you dont close with Sl of 20pip, you add new position with martingale factor each time CCI crossing 100 ? is that true ?
Yes.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #51
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:32pm Apr 7, 2015 7:32pm
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Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #52
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:34pm Apr 7, 2015 7:34pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Yes.
Thanks ! i try this !
  • #53
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:47pm Apr 7, 2015 7:47pm
Quoting BillYon
{image}
Dammit Bill!

You are trying to force my hand here, aren'tcha?

Hey, I appreciate the donation as much as the Red Cross does...and thanks for giving more than my typical request.

You. Sir.

Are above the crowd!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #54
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:58pm Apr 7, 2015 7:58pm
done!
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  • #55
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:11pm Apr 7, 2015 8:11pm
Quoting kohonez
done! {image}
K-Bang!

I know it seems a little self serving, but I do like to see and post a tally of the donations raised.

Could I talk you into posting a screen shot of your donation size?

Thanks, brother!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #56
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:16pm Apr 7, 2015 8:16pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} K-Bang! I know it seems a little self serving, but I do like to see and post a tally of the donations raised. Could I talk you into posting a screen shot of your donation size? Thanks, brother!
sure, no problem
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  • #57
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:18pm Apr 7, 2015 8:18pm
Quoting kohonez
{quote} sure, no problem {image}
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #58
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:22pm Apr 7, 2015 8:22pm
Personally, I'm not a fan of EA's and I already have my own trading method, so I'm not looking for a handout of your work. If you release it I'll take a squiz, but if not, no love lost.

I'm more so posting this in the hopes it will keep the ball rolling and encourage others to donate to their preferred charity.
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  • #59
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:23pm Apr 7, 2015 8:23pm
Congrats Magix, 1% a day. Very good.
  • #60
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:31pm Apr 7, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting pierre23
Personally, I'm not a fan of EA's and I already have my own trading method, so I'm not looking for a handout of your work. If you release it I'll take a squiz, but if not, no love lost. I'm more so posting this in the hopes it will keep the ball rolling and encourage others to donate to their preferred charity. {image}
Pierre,

I see you are a fan of the work of GVC. He is one of the friends that has helped me raise thousands of dollars for charity. Past that, he is generous in spirit and efforts, there really are only a few people that I truly aspire to be like. GVC is one.

I like your attitude and love your spirit, my friend.

Though I am not familiar with your charity, believe me, it is contributions like this that keep a lot of us going!

Your link will be passed on to GVC so that he can see how far his efforts still reach.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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