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Weighted Coin Toss Trading

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  • #21
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:38pm Apr 6, 2015 6:38pm
Example of a breakout grid:

Close[0]>Open[0] for buy

and

Close[0]<Open[0] for sell [for the quick and easy (yet imperfect) approach..]
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  • #22
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:41pm Apr 6, 2015 6:41pm
Quoting dingdong99
{quote} good work...... EA has a filter time ....? or running at all time ...? what pair you use ....? sorry, a lot of questions , I learned from you ...

Currently running round the clock, more so because it is typically a lot heavily reliant on the AUD crosses to pull the others out of the shitter and close the baskets above water.

The basket close is pretty new to me and I think that by restricting it to active sessions, it may perform a lot better, but there are those incidents that move the entire market that may make keep the winners from allowing the losing pairs to drag this into ass puckering situations.

Again, as it is a basket, it does trade multiple pairs and I have opened it up on a myfxbook link for viewing HERE.

Because of the starts and stops, I really don't have anything that resembles a decent statistical analysis, but will hopefully be building on it as an idea as time progresses. It works as an independent chart reader, keeping in the daily trend watching for cost averaging opportunities both above and below the primary position. It will hedge if the day flips over, and continue to add positions on all pairs until the basket is at max.

The early week is typical chop and consequently may take more trades, end of week being the trend allows it to kick it's feet up on the desk and work like it is being paid by the hour on Fridays...Really, every strategy has it's strengths and weaknesses.

Ask as many questions as you need to. I work with an entire community that knows it is better to ask and know, than to assume and surrender funds!!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #23
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:52pm Apr 6, 2015 6:52pm
Quoting FXForLife
Example of a breakout grid: Close[0]>Open[0] for buy and Close[0]<Open[0] for sell [for the quick and easy (yet imperfect) approach..] {image}
So...get this...

I gots all hammered up one night, chatting with a few friends in another thread and threw together something quite similar.

Though wasn't based on dynamic ranges, still actually did remarkably well...well enough to step into being remade a couple of times.

I still play with the idea and like the triggering, but not as you have it in the Close and Open [0]...

If you search through one of my old compilations threads, HERE, using the search string, "FTL", you will see that it trades a lot the same way.

FTL was coded as a follow the leader, and again, I was piss drunk when coded it so was actually surprised at how well it had done. It too was a break out trader, but more designed for an M15 chart on breaks of highs and lows. Instead of using the Close[0}<Open[0] and Close[0]>Open[0], I worked with a Bid>iHigh[1] and and Ask<iLow[1]. Issue being, without filtering, it did allow tops to be bought, bottoms to be sold, and cost averaging into account bust.

I do have a little different take on this same idea, but keep it in my own personal toolbox.

Glad to see you reaching out with your knowledge, my friend.

Anybody who sees anything that can resemble longevity in this house is definitely worth listening to!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #24
  • Apr 6, 2015 7:25pm Apr 6, 2015 7:25pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} ....Bid>iHigh[1] and and Ask<iLow[1]....
good to hear you found that approach!

and thanks for the idealized way to code that entry. i'll be using it!
  • #25
  • Apr 6, 2015 7:29pm Apr 6, 2015 7:29pm
Quoting FXForLife
{quote} good to hear you found that approach! and thanks for the idealized way to code that entry. i'll be using it!
Best workings, and really have a look at a chart to see what I am saying here...

If (Close[1]<Open[1]&&Bid>iHigh[1]) return (buy);
If (Close[1]>Open[1]&&Ask<iLow[1]) return (sell);

When you have a look at a chart, and if you properly qualify these through the use of a supply/demand or an OB/OS criteria, you will see what I am saying.

An immediate trend surge and reversal are the qualities of a lot of standard systems.

Qualify them even further with the daily/weekly as direction and they can be pretty amazing.

2 candles, the last and the current. Why look any further?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #26
  • Apr 6, 2015 8:37pm Apr 6, 2015 8:37pm
lol

Talk about playing the press like a champ!

Though I wouldn't actually expect a live account to have triggered in and out inside of 90 seconds flipping from shorts to longs...it was actually kinda kewl!
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  • #27
  • Apr 6, 2015 9:02pm Apr 6, 2015 9:02pm
The weighted coin...D1 stats

Keeping in mind that there were a couple of "out of the chute losers", on the market open gappo, just over 24 hours of trading...

35 closed trades, 22 winners...63%

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  • #28
  • Apr 7, 2015 12:23am Apr 7, 2015 12:23am
Thanks for sharing this magix.
I'll start testing this theory using TDI and a 3 lvl semafor and will let you know how it goes.
  • #29
  • Apr 7, 2015 12:54am Apr 7, 2015 12:54am
Looks like I have a little work to be done on my triggering methodology...

This does explain the double losses on Market Gap Open...

Spread and trigger with the range of the candles can actually create 2 trades in the same signal range...interesting...

Will see if this survives the night and work on it in the morrow!
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  • #30
  • Apr 7, 2015 12:55am Apr 7, 2015 12:55am
Quoting Matraguna
Thanks for sharing this magix. I'll start testing this theory using TDI and a 3 lvl semafor and will let you know how it goes.
Kewl.

More than one way to weight a coin.

Once ya have it up n running, let me know or drop in a myfxbook link. I will add it to the first post.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #31
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:17am Apr 7, 2015 1:17am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Straight up honest...I have done no statistical analysis past a quick glance at a chart and after running a similar idea last week. Working with the same EA and different ranges, what was the detriment was an actual trailstop that restarted the counter, even though the margin of profit was a lot lower than the gains, taking the idea into a steady stream of loss. Where it would lock after a set 13 pips, a return back to just above zero restarted the counter. With the 20/20 sltp, I really actually can't be sure that this won't go into a bust...
Haha there ain't nothing wrong with that!

hey man you gotta start some where when we build a system so i like what you are doing. It will be interesting to see how it develops as time goes on. I will be following closely and putting in my 2 cents if you don't mind.

In my experience with this kind of stuff whenever i try to increasing the frequency of "flips" it is often because the weight I thought was there is not so in my opinion if is better to do the latter as you said and tighten up on the triggers you take. The less your setup occurs the more weight it will give the coin. Again this is just my opinion and there usually isn't a right one
  • #32
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:27am Apr 7, 2015 1:27am
Quoting Sis.yphus
I will be following closely and putting in my 2 cents if you don't mind.
Mi Casa es Su Casa



Quoting Sis.yphus
The less your setup occurs the more weight it will give the coin.
Agreed!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #33
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:16am Apr 7, 2015 3:16am
Interesting ideas...

I'm also a martingale fool so I will see if I can integrate some of your ideas in my trading.

Did you thought, by backtesting, in counting your consecutive losses and draw a distribution graph so see where you should start doubling ?

All the best,
Subscribed.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #34
  • Apr 7, 2015 7:27am Apr 7, 2015 7:27am
Quoting broketrader
Did you thought, by backtesting, in counting your consecutive losses and draw a distribution graph so see where you should start doubling ?
Actually, No...I haven't considered backtesting...

For those that have been around me, they have a fairly strong understanding of how I feel about the data obtained from backtesting, in that it is simply unreliable...there is no value in anything you get from a backtest report.

The only value you can gain from using the strategy tester is to, within reason, gain an understanding of the triggering logic and this allows you to verify that the code is taking trades where an when it is coded to do so.

That's it...after that, wasting time by studying and running backtest reports is worthless.

Though, I do like what you are suggesting. How much safer could it actually be if we weighted the coin even further by delaying the martingale? This is an excellent question!!!

Having a brief review of the trades that have been taken and the stats on what has transpired since market open, I have counted 13 positions that were taken in the same place by the spread, latency and range being able to trigger in the same candle...13...total for all pairs tested.

So, have a look at the current trade report.

62 closed trades, 35 wins. Those 13 mistaken trades are 13 losses that go against the win:loss ratio. So, let's reduce the closed trades by that number, gives us 49 trades that would have been closed, 10 of these were flat out losses, meaning that 3 of them resulted in profit, so, let's deduct the 3 from the win column and take that back to 32.

Current trades (35/62) produced a 56% win ratio.
Minus the losers (32/49) produced a 65% win ratio.

In actuality, even at worse case (without me re-coding the entry to only trade once per candle), I am still ahead of the game and wouldn't actually need to martingale at all, but would only be left with a fist full of pips.

If I did correct the issue, at a 65% win rate, it makes the idea of having a martingale a lot less important...

Meaning that with a little correction, I could actually reduce risk and improve results with a smaller multiplier, like 1.5 and may not ever have to sweat the idea of account bust.

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  • #35
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:12am Apr 7, 2015 8:12am
Hello,
I have read post one. Just want to comment on your Roulette assumptions. When red as appeared four times in a row, it has absolutely no bearing on the next spin. It is 50-50 (Not quite if you consider the presence of the 0 slot). I have spent 6 years of my life playing Roulette full time and I have seen all kinds of newbies trying this. They all failed, of course. This is one of the best gambler s fallacy you can find.

Now, it does not mean that it is the same for Forex trading. Dont really know about that. Just my two bits.
Insider
  • #36
  • Apr 7, 2015 9:17am Apr 7, 2015 9:17am
Quoting insider999
Just want to comment on your Roulette assumptions. When red as appeared four times in a row, it has absolutely no bearing on the next spin. It is 50-50 (Not quite if you consider the presence of the 0 slot).
Welcome to being a little unclear on the concept.


In all of the roulette games, in all of the world, for all of those who have attempted this basic logic, can you actually provide statistics on the failure rate?

Even if you did, it'd still be of zero value...Do you wanna know why?

The Forex markets aren't actually completely random. Do you wanna know why?

Simple answer, because of the individual market sessions. In the same way that Supply and Demand works, it goes a long way to assisting the logic of a weighted coin. Not the just the, "What goes up, must come down",market theory, but actually more of the factual idea that there is an apparent market fairness between the relevant sessions. As in, what goes up, must come down, so it can go back up again...

Take the supply and demand concept and apply it to GBPUSD. You will see that over the course of time, perhaps not the exact same day, that their is a grand probability that both London and NY will be trading the same money, and past that, in the exact same direction...

Take the same idea and apply it to USDCAD. Doesn't actually work out as well...Do you wanna know why?
If you guessed that this is because they play in the same exact session, you are correct. They can move this greatly out of range, or keep it in the same range forever because both the yanks and canucks are trading at the same time.

Now, I know this is probably going to open up the doors for some of the hyper-literal to bust open their charts and look for exceptions to these rules...let me save you some time...

This is Generalities, not ABSOLUTES.

We live our lives according to a set of rules, we do not live our lives by exceptions to these rules.

So...in all of the pairs you see me trading with this concept, the pairs that you will not see me apply this to are the ones traded SAME SESSION!

They don't play by the rules for this idea to be favorable.

How does that lend credence to my idea?

Because after the market oscillates inside of it's regular market range, I am counting on a limited retrace and have weighted the coin to allow me to not look at buying the tops of market, nor selling the bottoms...but more so at increasing the probabilities of success by, yup...you guessed it...Weighting the Coin!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #37
  • Apr 7, 2015 9:30am Apr 7, 2015 9:30am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Welcome to being a little unclear on the concept. In all of the roulette games, in all of the world, for all of those who have attempted this basic logic, can you actually provide statistics on the failure rate? Even if you did, it'd still be of zero value...Do you wanna know why? The Forex markets aren't actually completely random. Do you wanna know why? Simple answer, because of the individual market sessions. In the same way that Supply and Demand works, it goes a long way to assisting the logic of a weighted coin. Not the...
This video should explain the degree of randomness that exist in the market. Think of the market as the human flipped light switch, as it is in fact controlled by humans.
Inserted Video


The market is "random" but like the human flipped light switch(the market is controlled by humans) certain sequences are favored over others(a levy flight).
If the market were truly random, all of the sequences of price would be favored the same.

I ran a sequence test to see if there was any frequency stability in the market and over 10 years of data there is not. The market definitely favors certain sequences over others.

sis.
  • #38
  • Apr 7, 2015 10:13am Apr 7, 2015 10:13am
Quoting Sis.yphus
The market is "random" but like the human flipped light switch(the market is controlled by humans) certain sequences are favored over others(a levy flight). If the market were truly random, all of the sequences of price would be favored the same. I ran a sequence test to see if there was any frequency stability in the market and over 10 years of data there is not.

Ya know...

I think that if one were to come up with conclusions based on just the small sampling of data from this week, they could effectively disprove the Market Absolutes and Myths...

Indicators are useless, because they lag...when in fact, when fed into a proper criteria, they are seemingly providing a better than random guess in directional trading.

Market is random...when in fact, it may be random to a certain point, but based on the predictability created by the simple ideas of Overbought and Oversold, isn't in fact all that random at all...

Going off of my previous stats post...and much like your signature...without extra weight on the coin and at this point only for the opening of market week, we can actually say that 65% of the time, market is predictable every time!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #39
  • Apr 7, 2015 10:39am Apr 7, 2015 10:39am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Ya know... I think that if one were to come up with conclusions based on just the small sampling of data from this week, they could effectively disprove the Market Absolutes and Myths... Indicators are useless, because they lag...when in fact, when fed into a proper criteria, they are seemingly providing a better than random guess in directional trading. Market is random...when in fact, it may be random to a certain point, but based on the predictability created by the simple ideas of Overbought and Oversold, isn't in fact all that random...
1. I used to be a PA is king type, but I have to admit that once a trader learns how to use indies, they can be calibrated to bring PA into a context that cannot be seen readily on a naked chart alone.

2. I changed on this one too. The market is definitely not random, because humans are not random. Human behavior can be readily predicted.

3. On OB and OS I have to roll with Gann on this one. There is no such thing as OB or OS in and of itself. Don't sell something because it is at an all time high and vice versa. Price action has to prove itself by a failure to breach a previous level after a challenge of that level.

Have you figured out how to avoid the death trade yet? Obviously I do not expect details, but I would like to know how that project is coming in general terms.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #40
  • Apr 7, 2015 11:03am Apr 7, 2015 11:03am
Magix,
there is no need for being defensive with me. As I said very clearly, I have no idea if your method has any merit or not. Quite frankly, I have not looked into it enough to have any idea. It is very possible that it has merits.
But when you talk about the game of Roulette I DO KNOW what I am talking about. And I am very clear, me thinks.

As I have said before, I have played this game full time for 6 years. (Yes, I made a fair amount of money, thank you very much!) And I have seen thousands upon thousands of players trying different things. One thing is for sure: the ''wait for four reds to come and then bet black with a progression'' thing is a non starter. One reason is that there is a table limit to what you can bet and that limit will sooner or later be reached. But that is beyond the scope of this discussion. The second reason is more important. The probability of black coming on the next spin is 48.65%, not 55 or 60% as you might expect. The ball does not know or care what came before. To think otherwise is, well, newbie stuff.
Dont get me wrong, most players think otherwise when they first start to play this game. And if you really think about it, do you really think that if something this simple could win, the game of Roulette as we know it would still be played today? Surely everybody would have jumped on the wagon and the game would have been changed by now.

Do I know what are the results of all the players that have attempted this strategy over the years, of course I dont. What kind of question is that anyway??? But what I can tell you is that I have tested this over millions of actual Roulette spins and the results are as I stated before. Roughly 48.65% probability.

Again, Forex is not determined by a mindless white ball, but by humans full of fear and greed. So to say that is not random is almost 100% sure.

I will read more and try to get the gist of your thinking.
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