Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 275 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,481
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:30pm Apr 3, 2015 6:30pm
Quoting RiverTrader
{quote} Alfonso, Is it possible for you to analyse USD/CAD again? Last time, after you have done this video on March 26, USD/CAD took the opposite direction and took out Supply Zone (on Daily chart) by itself. So, I believe the entire view has been changed.
I will post a new analysis on USD/CAD on Monday my friend! Happy Easter!
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,482
  • Apr 5, 2015 4:06pm Apr 5, 2015 4:06pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Boris, zones 1 and 2 removed opposing supply zones to the left, as per the rules See the screenshot below so you can see what I mean, you have to look left and see what each demand zone has attached. A demand zone is valid if it takes out opposing supply zone or it breaks a trendline. Hope it makes sense Cheers, Alfonso {image}
Thanks for the reply,

I'm a bit confused, since it seems to me that not zone 1 took out the supply zone you mentioned. But it was the "zone ?" that actually took it out - since it based and then penetrated the zone. Could you please elaborate on that a bit, because the move from zone 1 was not big enough in my eyes.

Boris
  • #5,483
  • Apr 6, 2015 3:27am Apr 6, 2015 3:27am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
{quote} Thanks for the reply, I'm a bit confused, since it seems to me that not zone 1 took out the supply zone you mentioned. But it was the "zone ?" that actually took it out - since it based and then penetrated the zone. Could you please elaborate on that a bit, because the move from zone 1 was not big enough in my eyes. Boris
I can't elaborate it more Boris, those zones were removed by previous zones as described in screenshot, there is nothing else to elaborate, rules are rules, more elaboration = overanalysis and doing things we shouldn't be doing.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,484
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:07am Apr 6, 2015 10:07am
Dear fellow traders,

Hope you had a great Easter holidays, now back to routine

I will be trying to send every week a weekly trading commentary with IF THEN scenarios and potential setups for 4 currencies every week, and update them during the week without bombarding you with messages.

Have a great week! Spring and good weather is here!
Cheers,
Alfonso

P.S. Rread the next 4 posts for those commentaries
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,485
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:07am Apr 6, 2015 10:07am
EUR/USD

EUR/USD rallied modestly higher late last week, last push was after Friday's NFP, but overall we can see price is still holding under Daily supply zone around 1.1000. Previous aggressive descending Daily trendline was broken, also temporary ascending trendline. Price hit Daily supply for a third time.

Daily is out of alignment, set and forget shorts allowed only within Weekly supply zone. Bigger picture trend is bearish on EUR/USD, else confirmation for shorts if price drops from current D1 supply.

Short bias

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,486
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:08am Apr 6, 2015 10:08am
GBPUSD has been accumulating for the last couple of weeks in a tight range between 1.4940 and 1.4630.

  1. There is no direction on the Daily but aggressive Daily descending trendline was broken, trendline allowed after 3 consecutive continuation patterns of supply have been
  2. Weekly and Monthly are still bearish, as per the realignment rules, set and forget shorts is not possible unless Weekly supply around 1.5368 is tested.
  3. Longs is lower odds because bigger picture is bearish on GBP/USD. If D1 demand zone created after the break of Daily descending trendline is broken more shorts in the shape of CP (continuation patterns) could happen.

Short bias

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,487
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:08am Apr 6, 2015 10:08am
USD/CAD is clearly ranging, price is bouncing from top Daily supply zone at 1.2774 and Daily demand zone at 1.2515. Fresh imbalance at 1.2515 was not valid because it could not remove any opposing Daily supply zone, confirmation needed for longs.

If previous Daily demand zones are taken out, price is likely to head south towards Weekly demand around 1.1800. If that happens we'll have a confirmed Daily downtrend joining the latest 2 valleys (see red dotted line for that bearish projection). Else, some longs could happen based on a confirmation type of entry, new demand levels being created on Daily or H4.

No clear direction on this pair, what to do? Nothing for now.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,488
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:09am Apr 6, 2015 10:09am
AUD/JPY has a clear downtrend, printing all time lows week after week. Brand new Daily supply zones being created. Last month highs confluence at 1.0170.

Aussie dollar is very weak in all cross pairs, this is helping AUD/JPY to drop like a rock

Short bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,489
  • Apr 6, 2015 3:30pm Apr 6, 2015 3:30pm
How would you guys validate which level to take when you have levels on top of levels which all look pretty good? Like attached

Any help would be great
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  • #5,490
  • Apr 6, 2015 3:37pm Apr 6, 2015 3:37pm
Quoting Keenk123
How would you guys validate which level to take when you have levels on top of levels which all look pretty good? Like attached Any help would be great {image}
Look to the left my friend, that is the secret Which is the freshest.

the first level at 7624, was a previous demand area, which got taken out, this means nice new "fresh supply"
  • #5,491
  • Apr 6, 2015 3:52pm Apr 6, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting Keenk123
How would you guys validate which level to take when you have levels on top of levels which all look pretty good? Like attached Any help would be great {image}
There are rules for that, we use levels, trendlines and the realignment rules. Apply them and you will get the answer. Great levels are also removed, imbalance is important but there are other things to be taken into account as discussed in the first post and many webinars.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,492
  • Apr 7, 2015 3:40am Apr 7, 2015 3:40am
Thanks guys. I still need to practice more and go your videos. The levels I showed got blown out by the good Aussie data. Also I realised later I was actually in a 4HR Demand area but looking to sell a 15 min Supply.... Not a good idea . I love when I get I get it wrong because it means I can learn and improve
  • #5,493
  • Apr 7, 2015 10:17am Apr 7, 2015 10:17am
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Attachment
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EURJPY
Look to Long when the Sz is removed as indicated in the H4 Chart.
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  • #5,494
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:32am Apr 8, 2015 12:32am
Some buying could happen on CAD/JPY D1 DZ that broke the D1 descending trendline IF previous D1 SZ is taken out, else taking no longs.

Price is rejecting WK 20 EMA, WK out of alignment. Some shorts could happen if we remove D1 DZ but we have WK out of alignment and no D1 closes below previous level

This is a tricky scenario because of no strong/clear levels and consolidation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,495
  • Apr 14, 2015 4:41am Apr 14, 2015 4:41am
Quoting panoramia
AUD/JPY has a clear downtrend, printing all time lows week after week. Brand new Daily supply zones being created. Last month highs confluence at 1.0170. Aussie dollar is very weak in all cross pairs, this is helping AUD/JPY to drop like a rock Short bias. {image}
You mean AUDNZD I guess
Trade what you see..
  • #5,496
  • Apr 14, 2015 5:27am Apr 14, 2015 5:27am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} You mean AUDNZD I guess
Yes, I think I made a mistake there Too many similar instruments, sorry

Cheers;
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,497
  • Apr 14, 2015 9:31am Apr 14, 2015 9:31am
GBPUSD - look to Sell
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  • #5,498
  • Apr 15, 2015 2:10am Apr 15, 2015 2:10am
Quoting yyc196
GBPUSD - look to Sell {image}
You want to know which is the sour of the trendline removal on GBP/USD, it's the lower H4 CP supply zone, there are several H4 supply zones on top of each other nested within the D1 SZ which originally caused the break of that D1 ascending trendline.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,499
  • Edited 6:49am Apr 15, 2015 2:28am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting panoramia
AUD/NZD has a clear downtrend, printing all time lows week after week. Brand new Daily supply zones being created. Last month highs confluence at 1.0170. Aussie dollar is very weak in all cross pairs, this is helping AUD/JPY to drop like a rock Short bias. {image}
Anybody short on AUD/NZD? Price rallied into WK/D1 supply zone and dropping from there, as commented in a previous post last week. The post said AUD/JPY but it referred to AUD/NZD on the chart, sorry.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,500
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:17am Apr 15, 2015 9:17am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Anybody short on AUD/NZD? Price rallied into WK/D1 supply zone and dropping from there, as commented in a previous post last week. The post said AUD/JPY but it referred to AUD/NZD on the chart, sorry. Cheers, Alfonso {image}
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