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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,881
  • Apr 3, 2015 8:37am Apr 3, 2015 8:37am
Quoting thegmann
waiting for this little zone to get hit on EU {image}
I wonder if it can go that far. The dollar selling is pretty chunky so.............
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #9,882
  • Apr 3, 2015 8:39am Apr 3, 2015 8:39am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} I wonder if it can go that far. The dollar selling is pretty chunky so.............
I say it hits 1.11 the MM's will spike it up just when you think its going down round up the stops and then the real down will begin. Im sure a lot of people just jumped in short 1.10/.02 with stops right in that zone or right below it.
  • #9,883
  • Apr 3, 2015 8:41am Apr 3, 2015 8:41am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} I say it hits 1.11 the MM's will spike it up just when you think its going down round up the stops and then the real down will begin. Im sure a lot of people just jumped in short 1.10 with stops right in that zone or right below it.
Sounds like the way banks operate to me. Grind the hedge funds until they say uncle.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #9,884
  • Apr 3, 2015 8:43am Apr 3, 2015 8:43am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Sounds like the way banks operate to me. Grind the hedge funds until they say uncle.
plus theres no way im taking/holding any order over this weekend that would be suicide. Especially with the "surprise" data market can do whatever it wants on open next week.
  • #9,885
  • Apr 3, 2015 8:47am Apr 3, 2015 8:47am
The fundamentals are also very nasty and designed that way to prevent the euro hoarding. The program is frickin' like a trillion dollars with negative rates for parking euros and possibly bond purchases with negative also. I can see 1.11 from the NFP blowback though. Maybe 1.1250?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #9,886
  • Edited 5:00pm Apr 3, 2015 9:46am | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting Temujin
The fundamentals are also very nasty and designed that way to prevent the euro hoarding. The program is frickin' like a trillion dollars with negative rates for parking euros and possibly bond purchases with negative also. I can see 1.11 from the NFP blowback though. Maybe 1.1250?
If we do go up, 1.1150 is halfway between fib points. I expect upside to be limited to around 1.13 no matter what (no bank liquidity = rising hundreds of pips even on good news for the eur/usd is pretty much impossible)

Typo: "1.150" written previously is supposed to be 1.1150 (error corrected now). Otherwise, it doesn't make sense that it'd be the 1/2 point between 1.13 and 1.10.

Update: Friday ended without even hitting 1.1150, as expected.

I'm a bit worried about the eur/usd on the first half of next week. With the NFP being especially bad for the U.S, and Greece just having confirmed that it WILL be able to pay the IMF on April 9 (thereby reassuring investors that a Grexit or a return to the Greek drachma won't happen for now at least) , we may face further temporary upside momentum for the eur/usd.

I would also not be surprised if we get a hefty gap in prices from this week's closing price and next week's opening price.
  • #9,887
  • Apr 5, 2015 11:19am Apr 5, 2015 11:19am
GBP is pricey for me but to tangle with the euro is something else. With all the Greek drama, ECB program and then the dollar hike-or-not-yet on the USD side it's just too much. I like GBP/USD. Limited range now. Next move is to consider raising rates just like the Fed. Last week I went long at 1.4884. Hit my stop and now it's above 1.49. Lesson learned, sell or buy side it will come back.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #9,888
  • Edited 7:18pm Apr 5, 2015 7:05pm | Edited 7:18pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote}I'm a bit worried about the eur/usd on the first half of next week. ...... I would also not be surprised if we get a hefty gap in prices from this week's closing price and next week's opening price.
And we start the week with my concerns hitting the market somewhat on the mark. Eur/usd pops up almost 30 pips above from the opening price, but I don't think it's a bullish momentum for bulls for the next few hours.

For the intraday, I see a scalping opportunity to short.

I am currently shorting the gbp/usd from 1.49200, maximum TP at 1.4800, maximum hard SL at 1.49500, manual soft SL. I'll probably aim initially for a couple dozen pips, but if I like the reaction of price at 1.48800, I may hold it for a bit longer up to 1.4800. I'm avoiding the eur/usd for now, though, since I'm wary of Monday's lack of euro liquidity. The Swss, German, Italian, and French BANKS are all on holiday, and with the NFP data to digest for the week, it's going to be a bit unpredictable.

You could short the eur/usd if you want, but I prefer the cable for right now-it's a bit more "stable", if you catch my drift. If they fall, eur/usd is likely to fall a bit more since euro is weaker than the cable, but banks of four major european countries going on holiday tomorrow worries me.

Note: If we can't break below 1.49000 for the cable by the time London opens, then I'll exit the market with whatever profit/losses I have.
  • #9,889
  • Apr 5, 2015 10:27pm Apr 5, 2015 10:27pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} The tease has just started.............
The direction the tease was put in place (Weak for most USD pairs) continued once the news was set in place..................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9,890
  • Apr 6, 2015 2:01am Apr 6, 2015 2:01am
But Vermillion, with bank holiday in the UK there won't be an actual London open..
  • #9,891
  • Apr 6, 2015 3:26am Apr 6, 2015 3:26am
Quoting alexpi
But Vermillion, with bank holiday in the UK there won't be an actual London open..
LOL. Yeah, but the market itself by name still exists. And on that note I left my shorts since they didn't even go near 1.49000 by the start of the London session.
  • #9,892
  • Apr 6, 2015 4:47am Apr 6, 2015 4:47am
Quoting alexpi
But Vermillion, with bank holiday in the UK there won't be an actual London open..
I agree .. another lame day ... market is like on holiday for three weeks now lol
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #9,893
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:49am Apr 6, 2015 6:49am
History tend to repeat itself. In 2010 before the general election, cable went as low as 1.42 there was a slide from 1.53000 down to 1.45000 and closed at 1.48...... in one week. That was the week just before the election. This time UK IS coping with more uncertainty. I think it could get far worse. Lets see
  • #9,894
  • Apr 6, 2015 8:24am Apr 6, 2015 8:24am
dustbin levels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 35 KB
  • #9,895
  • Edited 9:08am Apr 6, 2015 8:53am | Edited 9:08am
hello 178.08...........looks like a snails pace that cant get all the way up to 178.10 exactly so I called it a reject......my buddy FX-Ray, he's some kind of genius, huh! 6.8% in 16 hours.
  • #9,896
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:12am Apr 6, 2015 10:12am
To the moon! I hope it goes to 178.90 - 179.00 for a big sell order. On the daily chart, it could hit 179.80-90 which should coincide with the 200EMA. We'll wait and see.
Lost....
  • #9,897
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:08am Apr 6, 2015 11:08am
Most likely the BOJ will not ease on Wed. This is a scary week to be long. Took a long in Tokyo for 36 pips by NY time. Be careful out there.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #9,898
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:11am Apr 6, 2015 11:11am
.755 target in AU
.89 in AJ

will choose 1 of the 2 to get into prior to news
  • #9,899
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:20am Apr 6, 2015 11:20am
Quoting raiders
.755 target in AU .89 in AJ will choose 1 of the 2 to get into prior to news
A pretty solid play. The RBA is expected to cut the benchmark rate to 2.00%. Longer term projections of 0.70 now. It's Governor Stevens will. Like a steam roller with the full power of the RBA behind it. Can't be stopped.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #9,900
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:28am Apr 6, 2015 11:28am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} A pretty solid play. The RBA is expected to cut the benchmark rate to 2.00%. Longer term projections of 0.70 now. It's Governor Stevens will. Like a steam roller with the full power of the RBA behind it. Can't be stopped.
yea further out i have .71 and .70 but just for whats currently attainable in my eyes thats what im looking at.

still have lots of time for things to bounce around before the madness begins, but currently leaning in AJ direction
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