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  • #89,821
  • Apr 3, 2015 11:22am Apr 3, 2015 11:22am
well we're right about at the half way mark for today's NFP move..any takers as to if we'll go back up or go back to the steady decline for the AUD? just asking..
  • #89,822
  • Apr 3, 2015 12:06pm Apr 3, 2015 12:06pm

What will be the value of AUD if interest rate cut happens?


Low inflation opens door to further interest rate cuts

By business reporter Simon Frazer

Posted Thu at 12:00pmThu 2 Apr 2015, 12:00pm


Deutsche Bank is predicting a fall in the iron ore price to $US40 a tonne. Source: AFP

NEWS.com.au‎ - 6 hours ago

  1. Apr 1 2015 at 5:20 PM
  2. Updated Apr 2 2015 at 6:44 AM

Economists warn on Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut expectations

Chances of RBA rate cut firm as confidence falls away


Sydney Morning Herald-1 Apr 2015

RBA rate cut on the way, experts say


Sky News Australia-1 Apr 2015

Here's why the RBA will slash interest rates next week
  • #89,823
  • Apr 3, 2015 12:58pm Apr 3, 2015 12:58pm
are we expecting AU to be higher than 0.7700 after the poor US data? it did not even cross this price on my chart... or will it just bounce to bearish direction in anticipation of a rate cut?
  • #89,824
  • Apr 3, 2015 1:43pm Apr 3, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting noypi
are we expecting AU to be higher than 0.7700 after the poor US data? it did not even cross this price on my chart... or will it just bounce to bearish direction in anticipation of a rate cut?
The rate cut in all likelihood will happen in May. Too soon to cut...
  • #89,825
  • Apr 3, 2015 3:13pm Apr 3, 2015 3:13pm
Hopefully they do cut. I would love to see a big spike below .7533 and then a weekly close up above, especially on the back of weak us data. Looking forward they will not be likely to cut again if they do now, so after the initial negative we could see a big pop. However, the RBA wants a lower currency. If they shot all bullets next mon, traders will again start to bid it up by week end. If they wait, aud gets an big pop right away (rate cut mostly priced in currently), but the chance of a cut would then loom in may and weigh on the currency( keeping it lower longer). Lets see what they decide
  • #89,826
  • Apr 3, 2015 3:29pm Apr 3, 2015 3:29pm
dear pATIENT 1
  • #89,827
  • Apr 3, 2015 3:46pm Apr 3, 2015 3:46pm
In my opinion it will be no rate cut. Like you said rate cut is mostly priced in the moment, so in these case they can hold on. For sure they wanna cheaper currency , but its already cheap enough for the moment. We need to the big picture, aud/usd - 0.763,( still strong downtrend) gbp/aud- 1.953( after touching 1.89, still very strong uptrend) and least not last aud/nzd- 1.005( super strong downtrend) and i can keep going....the point is that aud is getting weaker, there is no need to use more tools to keep it going. They can save the rate cut for short to medium future, when will really needed. In case they do not cute interest rate it will be correction in all of these pairs, but it will not change the long term trend( keeep the aud weak), the reason it will not change the trend is because the market will keep expecting another rate cut next time.
Thanks for the reading and have a nice eastern weekend


do not get confuse by the small correction
  • #89,828
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:05pm Apr 3, 2015 4:05pm
Quoting lioslim
In my opinion it will be no rate cut. Like you said rate cut is mostly priced in the moment, so in these case they can hold on. For sure they wanna cheaper currency , but its already cheap enough for the moment. We need to the big picture, aud/usd - 0.763,( still strong downtrend) gbp/aud- 1.953( after touching 1.89, still very strong uptrend) and least not last aud/nzd- 1.005( super strong downtrend) and i can keep going....the point is that aud is getting weaker, there is no need to use more tools to keep it going. They can save the rate cut for...
I'm just looking for the "chance" of a pop down to the lows if they cut. a spike below and close above .7533 would be an outstanding r/r trade next week. I realize the trend is down.. I'm thinking couple hundred pips not trend change. The dollar I think " is going to have a bad week" Nfp going to get digested and I can't see fomc minutes helping dollar strength with the data coming out lately. If they do not cut, I'm not interested, but with a cut and said above conditions I'll be long. eur/cad long and cad/jpy shorts should also work well next week.
  • #89,829
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:15pm Apr 3, 2015 4:15pm
aud/nzd- 1.005( super strong downtrend)


I would be careful with that one! dairy auctions haven't been so hot lately.
  • #89,830
  • Apr 4, 2015 3:05am Apr 4, 2015 3:05am
Quoting Fx_Anil
AUDUSD is more likely to test Channel support, near 0.7535, on the sustained break of 0.7590. On the extended decline below 0.7535, the pair could test 0.7400 mark. {image}
Hi FX_Anil,
At the time you posted I tended to agree with you - but recent price action demonstrates accumulation IMO.

Expect interesting swing/s early this week!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3_4_15_AUD_USD.gif Size: 560 KB
  • #89,831
  • Apr 5, 2015 11:36pm Apr 5, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting ectoplasm
{quote} Hi FX_Anil, At the time you posted I tended to agree with you - but recent price action demonstrates accumulation IMO. Expect interesting swing/s early this week! {image}
Even i felt the same while reading the weekend NFP; however, the borader descending trend-channel, closely followed by the 100-day SMA, on Daily chart continue supporting the AUDUSD weakness. Moreover, the RBA meeting is likely to become a critical event for the pair.
  • #89,832
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:42am Apr 6, 2015 5:42am
Chart by Trading Central


https://private.tradingcentral.com/c...0406111139.GIF
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #89,833
  • Apr 6, 2015 8:15am Apr 6, 2015 8:15am
Quoting ectoplasm
{quote} Hi FX_Anil, At the time you posted I tended to agree with you - but recent price action demonstrates accumulation IMO. Expect interesting swing/s early this week! {image}
Hi,ectoplasm
Do you know where AU go to stop bullish?
0.774x?
  • #89,834
  • Apr 6, 2015 3:03pm Apr 6, 2015 3:03pm
Chart by Trading Central


https://private.tradingcentral.com/c...0406214731.GIF
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #89,835
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:29pm Apr 6, 2015 10:29pm
Interest rate will remain unchanged IMO
  • #89,836
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:34pm Apr 6, 2015 10:34pm
Based on recent data, the Reserve Bank of Australia should be leaning towards cutting rates down to 2% (a net decrease of 0.25%).

However, I get a feeling they'll keep the rates in April and slash it in May. I expect a rebound for the AUD if that happens, and a net gain for all major pairs competing against the USD (euro, gbp, etc.).

My forecast: RBA keeps rates unchanged on 4/7/15.
  • #89,837
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:02pm Apr 6, 2015 11:02pm
was it in march that RBA leaked rate number 1 min or so in advance? ...promised investigation and nothing....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #89,838
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:03pm Apr 6, 2015 11:03pm
Quoting Vermillion
Based on recent data, the Reserve Bank of Australia should be leaning towards cutting rates down to 2% (a net decrease of 0.25%). However, I get a feeling they'll keep the rates in April and slash it in May. I expect a rebound for the AUD if that happens, and a net gain for all major pairs competing against the USD (euro, gbp, etc.). My forecast: RBA keeps rates unchanged on 4/7/15.

I'm of the same opinion, I think they will hold the rate cut this month & cut next month.
I would buy the AUD right now.
  • #89,839
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:13pm Apr 6, 2015 11:13pm
AUDUSD is a total gamble this morning, what has been and still is for a better trade is AUDNZD short AND AUDCAD short.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #89,840
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:15pm Apr 6, 2015 11:15pm
Total gamble yes.. But staying long above 76
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