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Top Trade Idea For March 20th, 2015 – AUD/JPY


By Michael McCarthy Of CMC Markets

Fashions in trading come and go, and many traders are shaped by their biggest wins and losses. This may explain why share market traders tend towards bearishness. Stocks go up by the stairs, and down in the elevator, meaning share traders often get their largest and fastest wins in falling markets. These happy experiences bias them towards negative views of the market.
Similarly, many forex traders prefer trending markets – these have delivered their best trades. Among technical traders, this often sees them leaning towards momentum indicators over mean reverting indicators In fact, some traders sometimes complain about sideways markets. What this usually means is that their momentum based indicators are not delivering useful signals.


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Top Trade Idea For March 24th, 2015 –USD/CAD


By Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast.com

Not Top Trade Idea. Only Analysis
USDCAD is clearly in bullish mode since 2014, but prices has turned down from latest high so it looks like that new correction is underway which is part of an uptrend. We are tracking idea of an expanded flat that can be taking place in current blue wave (4), where subwave C) can reach support at 1.2350 for a “failure breakdown” that would then cause a new turn up for a (5). Big trend is up so we will continue to look higher, as we do not see any strong evidences for a “top in place”.

http://www.forexnews.com/wp-content/...ly-587x582.png

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Top trade idea for March 25th, 2015 – AUD/USD

By Fawad Razaqzada of forex.com

The US dollar is trading lower again in the aftermath of the FOMC’s surprisingly dovish statement last week and after the durable goods orders became the latest US macro data to disappoint expectations. As well as the pound and euro regaining some lost ground, the commodity currencies have also fared well in recent days, not least because the weaker dollar has given the underlying oil and metal prices a much-needed boost. Today however some of these commodity currencies, like the Aussie, are not doing that great despite oil surging higher. This could be because of profit-taking.

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Top trade idea for March 26th, 2015 – USDCAD

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

Insisting on a higher usdcad as the recent move to the downside failed to take the previous lows at the end of the contracting triangle, namely the 1.2400 lows.
This gives us quite a nice rr ratio as the stop for this trade is the 1.2400, but the target is quite handsome: above 1.2900, making it a new high for the pair.

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Top trade idea for March 27th, 2015 – USD/MXN

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

Many traders will refuse an each way bet. That is, if a trade goes against them, they won’t reverse and go in the new direction. Usually this is a result of at least one painful “whipsawing” as an inexperienced trader. Yet experienced traders know when to break the rules,, and the Mexican peso’s positioning at a key inflection point invites a flexible approach.



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Top Trade Idea For April 2nd, 2015 - USD/CAD

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

Still on the usdcad this week too as this market is a special one and the reason for that comes from both a technical and a fundamental perspective.
From a technical point of view, as long as the 1.2406 lows in the 4th wave green are not broken, then the scope can only be bullish, targeting 161.8% extension in the 1.29 area.
From a fundamental point of view, this market is an oil driven market and as long as Iran nuclear negotiations are still ongoing in Laussane, Switzerland, we should see only uncertainty.
The move to the downside for the 2nd wave in purple turned out it was a triple flat and from the 1.2409 area market traveled in a five waves structure before the b wave started.

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Top Trade Idea For April 7th, 2015 –USD/JPY

By Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast.com

USDJPY remains bullish for now as on the 4h chart we see corrective pullback from the highs. Always, when we want to identify a contra-trend pattern is important to know that corrections are slow, choppy and overlapping. Well, this is exactly what we see on the chart below. We are looking at a double zigzag in that wave (iv) that might have already bottomed at 118.32 considering recent push out of a downward channel. A daily close above 120.37 will put bulls back in play. So in that case market could rally towards 122 in April.
http://www.forexnews.com/wp-content/.../USDJPY-4h.png

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Top Trade Idea for April 8th, 2015 – USD/CAD

By Matthew Weller of FOREX.com

“I assure you, ladies and gentlemen, that if we do find oil here - and I think there's a very good chance that we will - this community of yours will not only survive, it will flourish.”
In his inimitable performance as Daniel Plainview in the 2007 movie, “There Will Be Blood,” Daniel Day Lewis convinces the residents of a small California town called Little Boston to sell their drilling rights to him, promising massive prosperity for the small town. As the name of the movie suggests, the arrangement eventually takes a violent turn for the worse.
In some ways, Canadian dollar bulls felt a bit like the residents of Little Boston in the second half of last year. “Flourishing” on the back of strong oil prices in 2011 and 2012, the loonie surged to above parity against the US dollar, but as oil prices collapsed in the second half of last year, USDCAD surged back to 1.2800 in sympathy. Based on the recent price action in WTI and USDCAD though, the bloodbath may shift back against USD bulls next.

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Top trade idea for April 9th, 2015 – EUR/USD

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

The eurusd is about to offer the possibility of a really nice rr ratio on the long side in the sense that from the absolute lows in the 1.0470 area, market formed an impulsive move, wave 1 in green, that is a double extended impulsive move.
From that moment on, a flat pattern started, and judging by the time take for wave b to form, I would say it is a common flat.
However, in a common flat, market is completely retracing the b wave, so a move below 1.0658 is mandatory. That should be the buying place, targeting 1.13 and risking the pips until the 1.0470
Nice rr ratio for the brave ones.


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Top trade idea for April 13th, 2015 – USD/CAD

By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets

USDCAD has formed into a well-defined, rectangular trading range. For me this presents 3 potential trading opportunities: Sell on a clear break of the rectangle support looking for a deeper correction of the major rally leading into this pattern.

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Top Trade Idea For April 15th, 2015 – USD/RUB

By Fawad Razaqzada of FOREX.com

The USD/RUB is hovering inside a significant support area around 48.55 to 50.75. The lower end of this range corresponds with an old resistance-turned-support level and a bullish trend line, while the upper end is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last significant upswing from the June 2014 low. Meanwhile the 200-day moving average comes in at 49.35 while the psychological support is at 50.
Thus for all these reasons, a potential rally could be on the cards soon. The key level of resistance to watch is at 53.50, the high from earlier in the week. Should this level break down then the bulls may then target the downward-sloping trend line next.
If however the USD/RUB does not respond to the above mentioned support area then the selling may continue over time towards the 45 handle or further lower still towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 43.10 before making its next move.

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Top trade idea for April 16th, 2015 – GBPCAD

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

What I am targeting here is nothing but a rising wedge for the gbpcad cross as the 2-4 trend line of the bigger degree impulsive move has been broken yesterday.
Actually it is quite interesting as the spike higher yesterday has been sold aggressively on Bank of Canada being quite pleased with the way the Canadian economy is shaping up. I agree with their statement overall, but I still say the CAD will have one more push lower before anything.
From a technical point of view, in a rising wedge the 2nd wave needs to be the most time consuming and the third wave to come should relate with 61.8% of the previous 1st wave. Based on these two statements, it means the 2nd wave is not completed, but needs to be completed from higher values.
This can happen only if the whole complex correction ends with a triangle, or, rarely, with a flat with a failure. However, because a triangle is more common way to end a complex correction, I’m projecting it there.
All in all, I am favoring staying on the long side until 1.93 area is revisited again and this can come only with a weak CAD once again.
1.80 would invalidate this scenario.
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Top trade idea for April 17th, 2015 – EUR/AUD


By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

Better than expected employment data in Australia this week saw the AUD make further gains against the EUR, pushing EUR/AUD lower. However, a bounce off previous support in EUR/AUD to complete a double top formation could see a significant reversal of the seven big figure fall over the last nine trading days.
A surprise fall in unemployment from 6.3% to 6.1% backed off expectations of a rate cut from the RBA at its next meeting on May 5. Interest rates markets re-assessed from a 75% probability of a cut to 50%, producing an AUD spike. The problem is the inconsistencies in the numbers – which many attribute to an under-resourced Australian Bureau of Statistics. If there’s a re-think, a reversal could be on the cards.
The ECB stimulus is priced and Greek disruptions could see further EUR repatriation, and the chart shows clear “lines in the sand”:

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Top Trade Idea for April 20th, 2015 – USD/CAD

By Michael Wright of Global FX Club

Global FX Club) USD/CAD is at an interesting juncture as the pair tumbled this past week from a high of 1.2644 to a low of 1.2087 as the setback came on the back of U.S. crude rising 4 percent after the bullish EIA inventory report. That fundamental fact pair with the technical picture in which price action slipped below trend line support on the 4 hour chart at 1.2420 leads us to eye shorting opportunities on rallies over the near-to-medium term.
Taking a look at the chart below, downside was limited by the 161.8 percent fibonacci extension at 1.2108, which we have now labeled as wave W – white. If it indeed does hold, a short term correction could be in place on route towards 1.240 – 1.2530, where we believe would prove to be an ideal shorting opportunity for bears against 1.26660 first degree pivot and 1.2834 second degree pivot on path southbound for 1.180 – 1.1301. Downside is preferred as of late as there is clear bearish momentum divergence on the 4 hour chart and technical support levels have been breached thus far.


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Top Trade Idea for April 21th, 2015 AUD/USD


By Gregor Horvat of ew-forecast.com

UDUSD is turning up after a failure break to new low at the start of April. We have seen new low for only 30 pips or so, which makes us think that this is not wave (5) yet as leg seems to be too small. As such, we are tracking wave (4) complex correct that can be forming even a triangle, if upper side of a range since February will not be breached.

http://www.forexnews.com/wp-content/...D-Daily-21.png

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Top Trade Idea for April 22nd, 2015 – NZD/USD

By Matthew Weller of FOREX.com


The US dollar is easing back a smidge in early US session trade, driven primarily by buying pressure in GBPUSD in the wake of slightly more bullish BOE minutes. As we noted yesterday, the BOE’s current quandary is to weigh how much of the ongoing slowdown in inflation is driven by transitory factors vs. more stubborn, longer-term deflationary forces, and based on today’s minutes, the committee sees the former explanation as more plausible. While all nine members voted to keep interest rates unchanged, two members stated their decision was “finely balanced,” suggesting that they may soon support a rate hike. In addition, the members also stuck an optimistic tone on the Eurozone, stating that “a succession of firmer data suggested that growth in the euro area economy was picking up.” The upbeat outlook drove GBPUSD through key resistance at 1.50, and if rates can close today above that level, further gains are likely.


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Top trade idea for April 23rd, 2015 – EUR/USD

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

This is the eurusd hourly chart and even if the time frame is so small, it should give us a nice reason for going both short and long.
The first step is to short the pair from current levels all the way to making a move below the 1.0518 but the take profit should be a couple of pips higher, just to avoid a fake move. Wave c in a triangle should be a corrective one, so look for a zigzag or a zigzag family pattern to come so pretty powerful downside momentum.
It is hard to believe that once down there market is not going to break the previous lows in the 1.0460 area, but we want to go long in there with a stop into the 1.02 and a take profit all the way back to 1.13.
I know it’s a long shot, but we should bear in mind that this pair is stretching almost to parity from the 1.40 level so some sort or correction is needed.
I would say the correction to the upside would come after this triangle in green is going to be completed, and this could take some time.

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Top trade idea for April 24th, 2015 EURGBP

By Ric Spooner Of CMC Markets


The Euro recently dropped out of a double top pattern against the Pound. Since moving below the double top support (“B”) , it has fallen by an amount almost exactly equivalent to 61.8% of the pattern height. 61.8% is the Fibonacci ratio and it’s quite common for price to stop at this point after completing a double top.
Another way of looking at this situation would be to see it as an ABCD pattern where CD=AB*1.618.
The possible significance of this point is also increased by the fact that it forms a Fibonacci cluster with the 78.6% retracement level which is close by.
My trade idea is to buy EURGBP if it rejects this Fibonacci cluster zone. As things currently stand this would happen if price stays above yesterday’s low and takes out yesterday’s high. Daily candles would then be starting to trend up, making higher lows and higher high

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Top Trade Idea for April 27th, 2015 – GBP/JPY

By Michael Wright of Global FX Club.

(Global FX Club) The GBP/JPY remains in focus to start off this week as the pair slithers its way into a tight congested zone, with resistance located at the 181.00 – 181.90 area, and trend line support around 179.80. Indeed, last week we called for higher levels in the pair, with a turnaround to follow and have thus far seen just that. With alight economic docket this week excluding U.K. gross domestic product.

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Top Trade Idea for April 29th, 2015 – EUR/USD

By Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com

The EUR/USD will be among the FX pairs to watch this this evening when the FOMC delivers its much-anticipated policy statement. This is expected to convey a dovish message following the release of mostly weaker US data in Q1. But if the Fed discounts the soft patch in data as temporary then it may inadvertently send out a less dovish signal to the market than expected. As a dovish statement may have already been priced in, the risk is that the dollar may actually find some much-needed support if the Fed merely confirms the weakening of the data.

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