Trading Journal Michael Lobry "why lose if you can win"

This is my trading journal and here I will keep you up to date with hot trading news!

About me, myself and I:
Currency pair: I trade every pair
Kind of trader: conservative
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1 to 1:4 (Stoploss 20, Take Profit 80)
Profile:
After finishing my bachelor marketing I started learning ForEx full-time. The first 2 years especially I read over 100+ forex ebooks and watched over 50+ video courses. All my summaries I put in one document, tested (and re-tested and re-tested) the forex strategies. As a Rotterdammer I say: it's time to put it in practice! I hope you guys appreciate my teachings towards you. Bear with me guys! I hope I get lots of forex buddies this way! If you have any questions about ForEx or wanna see how I live trade, don't hesitate to add me on Skype.

I start the kick-off with a simple question:
Which forex strategy in short works best for you to make profit?

As the writer I will start this thread with my own strategy.

Strategy:
1. First I search for a good external signal
- http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php has good signals. At this moment EURUSD states that 77% of all the traders in forexfactory is going short (bearish signal)
- http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137 has good signals as well.
- http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71 has good signals also daily.
- http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=11 should not to be missed out.
2. Second, if the good external signal is bearish then in step two I would only search for bearish signals. That said, just wait for a wave up and when you think it reached it's limit, THEN is the time to sell.
3. Put a SL (StopLoss) right above SR (a Support/Resistance level). If you're a more experienced trader you may see that some pairs bounces off the MA50 (Moving Average indicator) a lot, others on the MA100 and then just set a SL above it.
For example: Stoploss of 20 pips.
4. Put a TP (Take Profit) 1 times (for the more experienced traders, 4 times) the amount of pips of the SL.
For example: Take Profit of 80 pips (20x4)

Notes:
In this strategy I don't like trading counter trends. In my experience trading the main trend (when the MA20, MA30, MA50, MA100 (and MA200) are going the same direction) is 10 times more profitable.
Also, draw triple fibonaccis and every time the market price reaches a double/triple fibonacci line, just close half of your lot position size.
Any questions? Unlike forex I'm here for you 24/7!

good tread dude..

keep consistent..

awesome ...awesome ...awesome ...awesome ...foursome....foursome....foursome....foursome....

Thanks! Your input is wonderful and I hope to see your messages more often!

These are the forecasts for tomorrow (Monday, March 10th 2014):

GBPUSD: bearish
Entry: now
TP: 1.6619
TP 2: 1.6300
TP 3: 1.62500
SL: 1.68250

EURGBP: bearish
Entry: from 0.83083 (78.6 fibonacci)
SL: 0.83100

CADJPY: bearish
entry: from 95.3066 (88.6 fibonacci)
TP: 92.6909

GBPAUD: bullish
entry: 1.82724

u said that GU will bearish..

but i believe it will go higher at first level Wednesday..

then it will go to bearish

I see it, you are right and then it will become bearish this week from Wednesday on.

Do you want to become a billionaire quickly?

So the really important question is how to trade high lot sizes? Let's brainstorm on this one. I will start my ideas!

To trade high lot position sizes:
- it's best to buy when market is all the way down in monthly chart (look at NZD at the moment). Of course, if you buy 100 times in this way, then eventually one trade will succeed with high lot and thus making lots of money if you just let it walk. (and just put your SL at breakeven. Don't use Trailing Stop, otherwise it's only going to stop out. You already know the market price reached the bottom and will go up eventually, so SL at breakeven is sufficient)
- you could start off with buying with 0.01 lot size. If the trade goes -100 pips, just buy again doubling the lot size. Every time it reaches -100 pips, double the buying trade until you have a lot size of 3 or 6. Eventually you'll be a winner. Because if you cannot win once in 15 trades, you should go back to paper trading.

What are your ideas?

Hi traders, can you help me with my English please? Cause my English is bad and I need help. I read a Forex article in English and I would like to know if they mean it's bullish or bearish? This is the article from today, 10th September 2014:

1.
USD Bullish or bearish? "The Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates sooner to prevent the economy from overheating. "
USD Bullish or bearish? "The Fed is expected to wind up its asset purchase program in October and to start raising interest rates sometime in mid-2015. "
USD Bullish or bearish? "The rise in Treasury yields and decline in U.S. stocks confirm that investors are pricing in tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. This does not mean that the market expects the Fed to raise rates soon but ending Quantitative Easing in October is a move to unwind and not increase stimulus."

2.
EURO Bullish or bearish? "The ECB lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 0.6% from 0.7% in June. "
EURO Bullish or bearish? "In contrast, the European and Japanese central banks look likely to stick to a looser monetary policy stance.
EURO Bullish or bearish? "ECB (European Central Bank) announced plans to launch an asset purchase program. ECB announced fresh stimulus measures in an attempt to shore up slowing growth and inflation in the region. The European monetary authority will also begin an asset-backed securities purchasing program to shore up the recovery and steer the continent away from deflationary decline."

3.
GBP Bullish or bearish? "(If the Scots go through with the vote for independence, the uncertainty and commotion over the breakup is sure to create further turbulence in the UK economy. Not only will it most likely delay the Parliamentary election scheduled for May,) but it will certainly delay any rate hike action by the BoE as UK credit markets will no doubt require ample liquidity in order to adjust to the new political reality."

4.
AUD Bullish or bearish? "Investment lending in Australia increased."

5.
CAD Bullish or bearish? "The Bank of Canada will lag the Fed in tightening monetary policy."

Forex outlook for 10 September 2014 on EUR/USD:

After reading 50+ news articles today, my conclusion is that EUR/USD is bearish at least until $ 1.2892 is 58 pips !



Recap of the most important news articles as of 10 September 2014:

*2
9 september 2014: ECB announced fresh stimulus measures in an attempt to shore up slowing growth and inflation in the region.
The ECB cut its forecast for growth this year to 0.9% down from 1.0% previously and cut the forecast for 2015 to 1.6% from 1.7%. The bank also lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 0.6% from 0.7% in June.
The Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates sooner to prevent the economy from overheating.
The Fed is expected to wind up its asset purchase program in October and to start raising interest rates sometime in mid-2015. In contrast, the European and Japanese central banks look likely to stick to a looser monetary policy stance.

*3
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said that slackness persists in the labor market despite an improving economy, which softened demand for the greenback.
The European monetary authority will also begin an asset-backed securities purchasing program to shore up the recovery and steer the continent away from deflationary decline.

*4
Support levels can be found at 1.2940, alongside the current yearly low, 1.2919. If the EUR/USD is going to return to the 1.30 area, resistance can be found at 1.3013 and 1.3051.

*5
9 september 2014: Eur/usd goes to 1.20.

*6
Eur/usd goes to 1.2750

*7
eur/usd first goes to:
/\1.3010
Then to: \/1.2872
And then it goes to:
\/1.2799

*8
Eur/usd:
· 1.2984 is an immediate resistance line. 1.3104 is stronger.
· 1.2905 is providing weak support. 1.2806 is the next support level.
Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1.2905, 1.2806, 1.2688 and 1.2518
Above: 1.2984, 1.3104, 1.3175 and 1.3288

*9
Eur/usd goes to 1.2892, then to 1.2750.

*10
Eur/usd goes to 1.2041 (elliot wave) as C corrective wave.
Maybe Eur/usd is going up 3000 pips, because RSI is at the bottom.
As for the support level, they start at Thursday’s 14-month low 1.2919, and include 1.2896, ahead of what looks to be an important level at 1.2804, without neglecting 1.2753. We also should pay attention to the long term retracement in this area, the Marji 57.1% retracement at 1.2877, and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 1.2786.

Support:
• 1.2919: Thursday’s 14-month low.
• 1.2896: July 8th 2013 daily high.
• 1.2877: the long term Marji 57.1% calculated for the whole gigantic move from 2012 yearly low 1.2041 to 2014 yearly high 1.3991.
• 1.2804/10: a small support area combined of the daily lows for July 4th & 7th 2013.
• 1.2786: the long term Fibonacci 61.8% calculated for the whole gigantic move from 2012 yearly low 1.2041 to 2014 yearly high 1.3991.
• 1.2753: July 8h 2013 daily low, and major bottom.
Resistance:
• 1.2986: Friday’s daily high, which is the highest price seen after reaching Thursday’s 14-month low. Breaking above this level is a first sign of strength.
• 1.3010: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3039: micro term Fibonacci 50% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3067: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919. This is probably the most important resistance for now.
• 1.3107: short term Fibonacci 38.2% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3165: short term Fibonacci 50% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3200: short term Marji 57.1% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.

Trend:
• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.3067.
• Medium term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.3476.
• Long term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.4109.


*11
US non-farm payroll report came out significantly weaker than expected. But USD/EUR barely bounced so we expect bearish.

*12
At the end of September eur/usd becomes bullish

*13
French Industrial Production data release on Wednesday could accelerate the euro selloff. We hold a short position with an initial target of $1.2750.

*14
USD is expected to go up, because of the JOLTS Jobs Openings, which is expected to improve in the August release. Elsewhere in the US, there was positive news from last month's services and manufacturing PMIs. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI continued its impressive climb, hitting 59.6 points, well above the estimate of 57.3. ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 59.0 points, beating the forecast of 57.0 points. The impressive readings from the manufacturing and services sectors point to a balanced economic recovery. If US numbers continue to point upwards, we could see an interest rate hike in the early part of 2015. USD/EUR: 1.2806 is the next support level.

*15
The brief consolidation pattern above 1.2917 is already over and the downtrend is renewed, for a slide towards 1.2750. Initial intraday resistance lies at 1.2917 and crucial on the upside is 1.2995.

*16
EUR/USD resistance is 1.3050 according to the analysts of HY Markets. Support is 1.2920 and then 1.2880.

*17
As far as downside targets go 1.2800 is a possibility because it is a round number and the exchange rate may pause there for a while before extending lower. Below that is 1.2750 were a major support and resistance line is situated. In strongly trending markets there is little else to say. A possible entry point might be a couple of points below the 1.2850 round number.

Hi members of forexfactory, can you please help me? I added the text "USD bullish or bearish", so that readers of this thread can reply on the sentence whether it is meant as bullish or bearish direction. Can you please help me understand the sentences that I copy/pasted? I'm new in reading news articles, so I don't really understand if it's meant to be bullish or bearish. For example the first sentence:
1. "the FED (American Bank) wants to raise rates." I really have no clue: if the FED raises interest rates, will the US dollar go up or down? Could you please help me?
2. Also, what can be said about that ECB (european bank) has lowered its inflation for this year? Is the result that Euro goes up or down?
3. Apparently later (probably in 2015) ECB will support to higher the inflation. So, say in 2015, will the Euro become bearish or bullish?
4. And by a looser monetary policy, do they mean the currency will be bullish or bearish?
5. Then tightning monetary policy is likely the opposite direction, right?
6. If investment lending increases in Australia, does this result in a bearish or bullish Australian Dollar?

Can anybody answer my question?

A low inflation means bearish?
And high inflation = bullish for currency?


Loose monatery policy = bullish?
And tight monatery policy = bearish? Is this correct?

EUR/USD BEARISH ON MONDAY, 30 of March:

We are now (27-3-2015) located here. 3 whole candles are above middle line. The fourth candle is creating today on this Friday. For now it could still go up a peepsie little bit but then it plunges downwards

EUR/USD news:
- bearish: "the increased speculations of a Fed rate hike in June have been supporting the dollar so far."
"It seems that doubts on the Greek debt plan and the impact of the ECB’s ongoing quantitative easing program are weighing heavily on the shared currency these days."
link: Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
Another way to confirm that the US dollar gains strength is by checking another US dollar-pair. Let's take the GBP/USD. Professional Kate Curtis also thinks that US dollar will gain strength in the short-term.
USD is bullish: "about GBP/USD: the path of least resistance is to the downside, especially since the shorter-term moving average is trading below the longer-term moving average. In addition, the moving averages are treading farther apart, indicating a strengthening trend."
USD is bullish: "The 100 EMA might hold as resistance, as it seems to have held as a dynamic inflection point in the past. This is close to the 50% and 32.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, both of which could continue to hold as a ceiling for any rallies."
USD is bullish: Then later she states that the resistance of NZD/USD will be most likely 64 pips going up, and then bounce downwards. She also states: "if stochastic turns down from the overbought region and indicates a pickup in selling pressure, the pair might head back towards the bottom of the channel at the .7350 minor psychological support.""On its longer-term charts, NZDUSD has formed a double bottom pattern, indicating that a reversal from the recent downtrend might take place. Price has yet to break past the neckline resistance before confirming the potential long-term gains."
USD is bullish: Kate also states about NZD/USD: "The path of least resistance is to the downside for now, as the FOMC recently dropped its “patient” wording and indicated that they are moving closer to hiking interest rates this year."
USD is weak: Kate also states: "Risk aversion could continue to keep gains in check, especially as traders start pricing in the prospect of Fed tightening in June or September. However, more cautious remarks from Fed officials this week and the next could still keep the dollar weak, as traders could push back rate hike expectations further."
Link: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
EUR is bullish: Although US dollar seems to have strenght, also does the EUR this week on technical view. Read this about Kate: "EURJPY might be done with its recent downtrend, as a short-term reversal pattern formed on its 1-hour time frame. A double bottom can be seen, with price currently testing the neckline of the formation.
Moving averages have also narrowed, indicating that a potential crossover might take place. If so, this could confirm that an uptrend is likely to take place. Stochastic is moving up, reflecting the presence of buying pressure at the moment.""The neckline of the chart pattern is located at the 129.00 major psychological level. If price does break out, it could head higher by as much as 200 pips, which is roughly the same height as the formation."
EUR is bearish: In fundamental view however, Kate states: "The path of least resistance is to the downside, as the ECB is currently implementing its quantitative easing program, which is set to carry on for the next 18 months."
Future prospect, Kate states:
USD bullish: "The prospect of Fed tightening could keep risk aversion in play." This could mean that EURO will drop.
USD bearish: "However, if the Fed maintains that it doesn’t plan on tightening anytime soon", then EURO may strengthen instead.
Link: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
USD bullish: Kate states about eur/usd "EURUSD has been treading lower across all time frames but it seems that a short-term reversal might take place. On its 1-hour chart, the pair has formed a double bottom pattern, indicating that the downtrend could turn.
USD bearish: Kate states about eur/usd "The pair has to break past the neckline of the chart pattern around the 1.0600 major psychological level before confirming the potential uptrend. Stochastic is suggesting that this is possible since the oscillator is already in the oversold area and might be ready to turn higher."
USD bearish: Kate states "The main event risk for this setup is the upcoming FOMC statement, which could show if the US central bank is moving closer to a rate hike or not. The removal of the phrase “can be patient” in beginning to normalize policy could mean that they are likely to tighten after a couple of meetings.
On the other hand, if the Fed retains its cautious bias for now, market participants might start doubting that a rate hike could take place within the year. This could lead to a massive unwinding of dollar longs, which could lead to a longer-term reversal for EUR/USD."
USD bullish: "kate says "The path of least resistance is still to the downside though, as the shorter-term moving average is moving below the longer-term moving average on EUR/USD’s 1-hour chart. An upward crossover could be an early signal that a reversal is underway, but there appear to be no catalysts supporting euro gains other than potential profit-taking."

Together we are stronger & smarter! Someone care to add or suggest his analyses with me? Who?

EUR/USD is bearish as analysed. See my printscreens. Tomorrow EUR/USD will be bearish again.

EUR/USD plunged down 175 pips. My analyses was right again.

Does anyone have a speculation or analyses for EUR/USD today or this week? For Friday maybe? EUR/USD up or down?

I think that i believe that all people can make a, relative (infinite), quantity of money using low quantity of lots.“Trading“ high or low quantity of lots is practically irrelevant because you can lost all of such “trade“ money. If you don´t have a good strategy for predict the market directions you could lost all money of such “trade“.

My practically opinion is that if I see a guy that use money management, for me is a weak investor. You can lost all of your money with money management. mathematically; Not matter if you have a good strategy for predict the prices; But you could make a lot of money using a Holy grail.