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Profiting from an unpredictable market?

  • #21
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:05pm Apr 1, 2015 12:05pm
Very nice thread and a source of much discussion with my contemporaries: a few "random" thoughts if I may chime in. I like your dictionary definition at the beginning of this thread. However in my experience, I think that most market participants are trying to achieve "certainty" and as a proxy to that they chose "predictability", thus forming the progression of thought that if a market can be predicted in even a small way, a certain amount of "certainty" can be derived, and therefore my trades are not "bets".

I am in your camp spaceduck. I do NOT believe there is any "predictability" to prices per se. However I do believe in that prices are a result of the order flow in the market and by learning to "see" that, one can derive a certain probability of success that is greater than just "random" success.

I have also noticed that very few people here consider the fact that trading is a ZERO SUM transaction. Thus, by understanding that your account only increases at the expense of someone else, you must learn to see how the loser is transacting and take the other side of his trade...To a certain degree the loser's behavior CAN be predicted and exploited especially if the loser is using the common technical analysis understanding promoted here on this forum.

That said, it is impossible to anticipate or "predict" what each and every person in a 1.5 trillion dollar per day market will do, and therefore in that sense, the market truly is random.

And to what end? Whether the market is or is NOT random, (or predictable), the true point of participating is to exploit a perceived inefficiency or pattern in price...I say HOGWASH. If you want to talk about random...this is the area where it most certainly applies. Any perceived inefficiency, whether some repeating pattern, or some "technical analysis" garbage will ultimately appear at random, and just as randomly disappear. Think of how many "methods" have come and gone from this forum...or how many EA's that seem to work well during the trial phase only to lead to unfathomable losses when used live.

Friends, this is a zero sum game. There is NO certainty and therefore no predictability in any given price action. Most of the patterns you recognize as Technical Analysis "tools" are really just self fulfilling "prophecies" that only work when the entire market is united toward the same direction...how often does THAT happen? It is not just random...it is rare.
  • #22
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:19pm Apr 1, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting available
{quote} Are there any trading system could be evolved from chaos? What are the principles to proceed from? What I can say is when the number of factors affecting something goes to infinity then yes this "something" becomes unpredictable in behavior. But it is from the point of pure math, real situation shows that big events overlap all this noise and can affect the price in evident way as NFP for example. Profiting from unpredictable market is impossible as chaos doesn't yield to any kind of analysis


Good that you talked about NFP for example, tomorrow there is NFP.

I tell you what may happen:

1) NFP is positive for usd, sending eurusd down (perfect logic).
2) NFP is negative for usd, sending eurusd up (perfect logic).

3) NFP is positive for usd, sending eurusd first down, but then all way up (no apparent logic reason!).
4) NFP is positive for usd, sending eurusd first up, then all way down (stop hunt before the real move?).
5) NFP is positive for usd, sending eurusd up (no apparent logic).
6) 7) 8): 3) 4) 5) reversed.

I've personally witnessed each and every of these 8 possible outcomes unfold in the past, the same 8 outcomes can all unfold for every fundamental news/data, i still don't see any predictability.

Sorry for that!



Look at the image below, from an EA that make 1 trade per day, the direction of each trade is totally random.
Yet, i can instead tell you that this EA was using some moving average or macd or whatever, to decide the direction of each trade, in other words to attempt to predict the market, and it would make perfect sense.

No, really, it's totally random.
But, the outcome seems to tend on the profit side, weird...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 59 KB
  • #23
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:20pm Apr 1, 2015 12:20pm
Forex markets are predictable both short term and long term. Long term is much easier as it's simply based on fundamentals of each economy. Fore example, AUD/USD will keep heading down because the Fed are ready to increase interest rates, first thought in June but now more likely to be July - September. The RBA have cut rates once recently and are now looking at how many more are needed, not if a cut is needed. 0.7200's are a decent target for the next downside move, a nice level of demand, but I personally think it will push below 0.7000's.

Dollar Yen - there is much more room for upside movement. Fed looking to increase, Japanese economy is weak. 124.00 looks like a good first target, with 134.00 as a decent second long-term target. A big factor to stop this could be more middle-eastern tensions with Yemen, IS, and then problems with Russia. Japanese Yen is a safe haven currency so money flows there when there are world problems.

Short term is simply based on what is driving these interest rate decisions intra-day which we can all find, right here on the front page of FF. The Fed are looking to wage growth as their main focus for increasing rates, with secondary focus as labour data. If wage growth on Friday comes out positive so better than forecast which will then also be better than last month, this will give the Dollar a lot of strength. CPI data come from the UK last week which was worse than previous, and forecast to be worse also. Before and after the event, Sterling lost a lot of value.

If you read what is driving the markets, you'll be able to predict the direction virtually whenever you want. Most people ignore it though...
  • #24
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:26pm Apr 1, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting abokwaik
Markets are predictable on higher time frames(Weekly and above), prediction is highly related to economic factors. As you move down to lower time frames (Daily and below) it gets more random.

markets are also predictable on a lower timeframe which I believe to be less random. Your telling me on a weekly or monthly timeframe you can predict news events and economic developments ? I would say trading on higher time frames result in higher probability of the economic/social/world events distorting the market.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #25
  • Edited 12:47pm Apr 1, 2015 12:31pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting gspajon
Friends, this is a zero sum game. There is NO certainty and therefore no predictability in any given price action. Most of the patterns you recognize as Technical Analysis "tools" are really just self fulfilling "prophecies" that only work when the entire market is united toward the same direction...how often does THAT happen? It is not just random...it is rare.
What else do you need to profit? Even if it's self-fulfilling that works (based on years and years of observation) - why you shouldn't exploit it?

Even if at some rare occasions market 'unites' - why you shouldn't trade only on those occasions and make money?

You have to define your 'rare'. According to me that rare market unification will occur this Friday during NFP announcement. It's up to you to interpret the given data and decide which way the market will unite.

Quoting spaceduck
I've personally witnessed each and every of these 8 possible outcomes unfold in the past, the same 8 outcomes can all unfold for every fundamental news/data, i still don't see any predictability.}
Yet you still somewhat know which outcome (and more outcomes inside that outcome) is more likely than the other and you will trade accordingly, Sir.

P.s.: I'm myself in a camp of randomness because I've been slapped so many times by this gracious market even when I was (as it seemed) 100% right
  • #26
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:42pm Apr 1, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting gspajon
Very nice thread and a source of much discussion with my contemporaries: a few "random" thoughts if I may chime in. I like your dictionary definition at the beginning of this thread. However in my experience, I think that most market participants are trying to achieve "certainty" and as a proxy to that they chose "predictability", thus forming the progression of thought that if a market can be predicted in even a small way, a certain amount of "certainty" can be derived, and therefore my trades are not "bets". I am in your camp spaceduck. I do NOT...
Great post, i must admit that i don't feel good with myself if i say that the market is totally unpredictable,

as you also said, overall it is a zero sum game, so what is bought eventually have to be sold.
also, we do know that a big portion of market movements are liquidity hunting, or stop hunting maneuvers, so it's possible to make some guessing from time to time about where losers have their stops, and so where market is going to hunt them.
then there are the trends, that do exist and do last sometime for years, etc.

It is a free system with a level of unpredictability, but it is not totally random or totally unpredictable, i want to say this.

However in the same time it is, because you can never be sure of what is going to happen (the trend may reverse at any moment for any or no reason, the stop-hunt maneuver can work out or not work out anytime, etc.etc.).

Of course focusing too much on the unpredictability side of the view bring an aura of despair that make profitable trading impossible, so we all need something to believe in when we trade (even if deep down some of us know that no matter what, chances are always 50%), it is important to stay balanced, not fall in the predictability-view trap, and not fall in the unpredictability-view despair, just in the middle.. is fine.
  • #27
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:46pm Apr 1, 2015 12:46pm
As for the definition of predict/prediction, there is no mention that it should be Correct to be a Prediction, otherwise it will become a Fact.

Some examples:

vocabulary
A prediction is what someone thinks will happen.
A prediction is a forecast, but not only about the weather.Pre means “before” and “diction” has to do with talking. So a prediction is a statement about the future. It’s a guess, sometimes based on facts or evidence, but not always. A fortune teller makes a prediction using a crystal ball. A meteorologist uses maps and scientific data to tell us about the possibility of rain, snow or sunshine.

Synonyms for predict from thesaurus.com : anticipate,calls,conclude,envision,forecast,foresee,think
No guts, no glory
  • #28
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:49pm Apr 1, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} markets are also predictable on a lower timeframe which I believe to be less random. Your telling me on a weekly or monthly timeframe you can predict news events and economic developments ? I would say trading on higher time frames result in higher probability of the economic/social/world events distorting the market.
Higher time frames are affected by Macroeconomics while Lower time frames are affected by Microeconomic
No guts, no glory
  • #29
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:20pm Apr 1, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting Tingus
... What else do you need to profit? Even if it's self-fulfilling that works (based on years and years of observation) - why you shouldn't exploit it? Even if at some rare occasions market 'unites' - why you shouldn't trade only on those occasions and make money? ...
All fine and good IF you can do so in a timely manner...most often those times are very volatile and the prices are moving extremely fast...to fast for a mere human to take advantage of...add in spread increases, broker delays...etc it ultimately leaves you "chasing" prices, or has you going the absolute wrong way during the "whip saw".

Most here using the typical "trend" following tools are ultimately left buying near the top or selling near the bottom after all the computers or traders who look for losers have entered...and to make things worse the person on the other side of the trade is usually a profit taker, leaving you holding the losing trade.

Again they do work at times, but those times are "rare"... RARE = adj. Infrequently occurring; uncommon
  • #30
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:30pm Apr 1, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting spaceduck
....Of course focusing too much on the unpredictability side of the view bring an aura of despair that make profitable trading impossible, so we all need something to believe in when we trade (even if deep down some of us know that no matter what, chances are always 50%), it is important to stay balanced, not fall in the predictability-view trap, and not fall in the unpredictability-view despair, just in the middle.. is fine.
Again looking for some degree of "certainty" which does not exist in this business...if you want certainty, plumbing is a better profession...

My friend and Mentor Jason Alan Jankowsky often says, "Winners look for probabilities, losers look for certainty." The certainty you seek comes with knowing the probabilities of your methodized approach and the rock solid discipline to deploy it.

Despair implies a hopelessness because, if the market cannot be accurately predicted one is only wasting time and money. Not true! Uncertain outcomes do not equate to losing money. Assuming a positive expectancy AND a favorable probability of outcome, the only limitation on making money is YOU!

Learning to see the order flow makes "sense" out of the apparently random movements of price action. Controlling risks of those inevitable losses, AND controlling your actions through discipline creates "certainty" of profit. NONE of that has anything to do with the market.
  • #31
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:48pm Apr 1, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting gspajon
Very nice thread and a source of much discussion with my contemporaries: a few "random" thoughts if I may chime in. I like your dictionary definition at the beginning of this thread. However in my experience, I think that most market participants are trying to achieve "certainty" and as a proxy to that they chose "predictability", thus forming the progression of thought that if a market can be predicted in even a small way, a certain amount of "certainty" can be derived, and therefore my trades are not "bets". I am in your camp spaceduck. I do NOT...
Hello sir,
When you word it the way you have, it is most certainly difficult to attack (well disagree) with anything you have mentioned. As I mentioned in my previous post, is that the market has to many consistent factors to deem the market "random" in nature. Would you believe that ones opinion of how the market works will determine how they proceed with trading? Would you say that if traders focused on accuracy they would fair much better? If the market is ran by a computer script, then their must been a weakness inside of it?
Everything in life has a "counter". Especially in forex.
  • #32
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:56pm Apr 1, 2015 3:56pm
I think the true essence of this thread and the many similar threads MANY similar threads! Is people who don't get it, starting looking for understanding of why, and when they can't lead to a logical conclusion the next best thing is an illogical conclusion one that requires less energy, thought process, computation or even general knowledge. Its easy to say undoable, and then say okay well prove it that it is infact doable.

So what happens in that situation is the person who wishes to use less energy challenges other people to do it, like the tom soyer example. I bet you can't paint all this fence, oh you can? well let me see you do it! The bait and the hook..

The bottom line is that a year from now 5 years from now 10 years from now will still be seeing the unpredictable, undoable, unrealistic I keep spitting Un's like spitballs.. 95% will fail and grasp at understanding why and instead of admitting defeat or raising to the challenge they will challenge others instead and then point and says aha.. Those 5% who are doing it, really don't give a rats ass because they are doing it lol why care what someone has to say when you know the truth?! Why spend energy proving something to someone else whats the reward whats the incentive?!

Problem is people who look to challenge others and say aha don't get that those being challenged have NOTHING to gain from proving anything, and so no one steps up and then they say well see the self fulling prophecy came true no one proved me wrong, and then.. what then?! Nothing has been gained nothing has been accomplished lol. The person fills fulfilled that they are right.

Yet the influx will never cease.. The cycles will continue because the 95% is greater then the 5% just like the 99% is greater then the 1%..
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #33
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:04pm Apr 1, 2015 4:04pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} All fine and good IF you can do so in a timely manner...most often those times are very volatile and the prices are moving extremely fast...to fast for a mere human to take advantage of...add in spread increases, broker delays...etc it ultimately leaves you "chasing" prices, or has you going the absolute wrong way during the "whip saw". Most here using the typical "trend" following tools are ultimately left buying near the top or selling near the bottom after all the computers or traders who look for losers have entered...and to make things...
Would you agree that trading volatility has some sort of weakness? Based on what you see online, we are told that wideing of spreads occur due to "lack of liquidity". Well what if that was indeed "not true". If that theory, which is held to be true is debunked would that then suggest an underline weakness (exploit) to the market?
Everything in life has a "counter". Especially in forex.
  • #34
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:19pm Apr 1, 2015 4:19pm
Quoting palabara
I think the true essence of this thread and the many similar threads MANY similar threads! Is people who don't get it, starting looking for understanding of why, and when they can't lead to a logical conclusion the next best thing is an illogical conclusion one that requires less energy, thought process, computation or even general knowledge. Its easy to say undoable, and then say okay well prove it that it is infact doable. So what happens in that situation is the person who wishes to use less energy challenges other people to do it, like the tom...

Very good way of thinking about it. Perhaps if the right questions are asked, it will enlighten the pessimistic trader to look deeper.
Everything in life has a "counter". Especially in forex.
  • #35
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:56pm Apr 1, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting PaulJames
... Would you believe that ones opinion of how the market works will determine how they proceed with trading?...
Absolutely...it is well documented, as well the most current thought in psychology is that people's beliefs control their actions. Thus the formation of a belief about how the market works will also lead the participant to act in a particular way in an effort to act in his/her own best interest.

Quoting PaulJames
...Would you say that if traders focused on accuracy they would fair much better? If the market is ran by a computer script, then their must been a weakness inside of it?
"The Market" is simply a machine that matched buyers with sellers at a mutually agreed upon price...while yes, a computer algo does this matching in real time so as to make the process more rapid, it is not malevolent. It is simply a machine...literally. As far as a weakness in the algos, perhaps there is, and perhaps that is what HFT is all about. However I cannot say for sure.

Accuracy of entry is NOT guaranteed by computer program (assuming you're not cheating or "front running"). If you trade market orders you get in line like the rest and wait your turn to be filled. If you place a limit order you are filled at that price point or not at all. If you place a stop order - your order is then converted to a market order at the quoted price...and again you get in line. A computer telling the market which order you wish to use, does not change these facts.

Quoting PaulJames
Would you agree that trading volatility has some sort of weakness?...
I'm not sure what you are asking here...weakness is what aspect. When I say volatility I am referring to the large and rapid price movements or even gaps that occur intraday that are usually the result of a news or geopolitical event. This is where (seemingly) the entire world tries to transact order in the "market machine" and the order flow balances then unbalances within a few seconds.

Liquidity is scarce because there are often few who wish to transact or participate until the volatility settles...thus when orders flood the market, larger and "wild' price swings occur looking for both BUYER AND SELLER to complete the transaction. I'm not sure how "weakness" applies.
  • #36
  • Apr 1, 2015 9:19pm Apr 1, 2015 9:19pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Absolutely...it is well documented, as well the most current thought in psychology is that people's beliefs control their actions. Thus the formation of a belief about how the market works will also lead the participant to act in a particular way in an effort to act in his/her own best interest. {quote} "The Market" is simply a machine that matched buyers with sellers at a mutually agreed upon price...while yes, a computer algo does this matching in real time so as to make the process more rapid, it is not malevolent. It is simply a machine...literally....
Thank you very much for taking the time in responding my questions. To expand on the last point"about volatility having a weakness" I was simply asking if you thought that their is some sort of "soft spot" in the algo which is ran when high impact news or geopolitical event occurs. I ask this because during those events we see the excuse of "low liquidity" as being the reason as to why the spreads are made wide, and we see massive whip lash in the market.
I on the other hand, do not believe that theory one bit, only because of how the market actually trades when their is truly "no liquidity or low liquidity" and how during those moments, it looks nothing like how the market looks when high impact news is released such as NFP.
Based on the recording I have saved on my computer, and looking at tick charts more then anything else, the excuse of low liquidity to widen spreads, is dependent on the broker itself. Widening of the spreads allows the brokers to activate much more orders compared to any other time, as the HIGH RISK TRADERS would more then likely try to "box in" or "corner" the market with pending orders on both sides in hopes of "Scalping" the what would be price action.
One of the counters I have created is to program an EA which deactivated mt4 ability of opening orders once the spread widens x amount. Since the widening of the spread is assumed (by me) as being a hunt prior to the actual move within x amount of mins the reality is "boxing in" or "corning the market" is "saver" after the spread has returned to normal.
Although risky in nature, the reality is the algo is programmed to achieve a certain result. By identifying those results, just as you would identify a pattern on your chart, it will allow you take advantage of the "non-random" part of the algo. Even if the none random part results in a 6:1 R:R It is a good deal considering that at any given time, your entry is inside the random loop of the algo script, instead of the constant part of the script which determines the next 20-30 pips.
Everything in life has a "counter". Especially in forex.
  • #37
  • Apr 1, 2015 10:11pm Apr 1, 2015 10:11pm
I agree that the market is random in a sense that no one, even the biggest players, can know with 100% certainty what is going to happen next (the exact price movement with a precise price target). However, as gspajon correctly pointed out, "The certainty you seek comes with knowing the probabilities of your methodized approach and the rock solid discipline to deploy it."

I think there a couple important points that need to be understood:

  1. Seeing the order flow and analyzing psychology of traders who are currently in the market will shift the success rate from 50/50. I believe it is important to understand that complete certainty in our trading decisions will not be found, and most of the times the market will behave like it is a 50/50 endeavor. However, at other times we can see that it is more likely to move in one side over the other - still no certainty that it WILL do that, and so...
  2. Using SL and other methods of risk management we can decide with how much money we are going to back up this particular bias we have about the current market. We cannot know where the market is going exactly, where it stops and how much money we make on the trade. This is the area with high degree of uncertainty. There is only one single parameter we have control over - the amount of money we are willing to pay the market to find out whether it agrees with our bias or not. This amount of money can be defined with high degree of certainty, but still not 100% (SL can slip, the price can gap through, etc.)
  3. We are not only interested in "predicting" where the price will go - up or down. I believe it is more important to think where the price is more likely to go substantially. I will happily pay the market 50 pips a couple times when there is an opportunity to make 500 pips if it does follow through in my chosen direction.
  4. And yet, we should not be foolish to expect that the market will meet our 500 pips (or whatever) targets all the time. If I've been in 200 pips trade which closed in 50 pips loss or breakeven, I am the only one to blame. We can and should set up a system of taking profits when the market makes it available to us.


Mark Douglas gives a great example about profiting under unpredictable circumstances in "Trading in the Zone", where he compares professional traders to casino owners. A casino owner does not know how much money you are going to leave with, OR leave in the casino, nor does he care. He simply setup the rules for all the games to have a slight edge over you. Yes, you can leave with $50 000 today, and more tomorrow. The casino will gladly pay you, because over thousands of players the edge will pay off. Your $50K win is a low probability chance event, it is just as likely to happen as someone else losing $50K. In fact, when they lose, the chances are they will lose 4% more (or whatever is the edge that the casino has in that particular game).

I do not see any other way for us to treat our trading business. When we have a system that provides a slight edge in our favor (it can be slightly more winners over losers or average winner being bigger or a combination of both), all that is left is to look for opportunities that the market provides every single day. When we see a market situation that our system allows us to act upon, we jump on it without hesitation (that's the discipline part without which all our attempts at trading are useless).

At that point, do we assume that the market will move where we expect it to? Well, does the casino owner assume that this rich-looking guy is going to leave all his money at the table today and not just order a drink?

In the end trading is really about our psychology, our mindset. Don't allow the market to make any of your analysis/trading decisions wrong by not assuming that you know what is "right".

  • #38
  • Edited 10:37pm Apr 1, 2015 10:13pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting spaceduck
Predict: from Latin praedict- made known beforehand, declared, from the verb praedicere, from prae- beforehand + dicere say. To predict something means to say (know) that something will happen, before it do happen. The traders (and economists) community all over the world is and has been always divided in 2: On one side, the traders that believe market is simply unpredictable, and then its future movements cannot be forecasted (random walk hypothesis, consistent with the efficent market hypothesis). On the other side, the traders that believe that...
One doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out this market is unpredictable. It is so obvious that you don't even have to test this believe. How can something be predictable if countless factors influencing it remain ever changing, both in nature and impact?

Mathematically, it could be a zero sum game if one ignores br0kers' commission/spread/fees and the taxes. But someone pockets moneys of traders who quit after losing.

It is not right prediction or right guess or right bias or good luck that can make one profitable. There are many things one can do to overcome limitation of unpredictability of this market. These could be selecting right time to trade, observing what happens in NY, Tokyo and London Sessions, Money Management (everything inclusive), etc. etc. But the mother of all these is UNDERSTANDING HOW THIS MARKET BEHAVES when something good or bad or small or big or economical or political or natural happens that affects this market at least in part.

Now tell me how this market will behave in these two scenarios:
1. Angelina Jolie marries Chicky
2. Vladimir Putin selects Maria Ozawa as his new bride
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #39
  • Apr 1, 2015 10:45pm Apr 1, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting AnatoliyS
I agree that the market is random in a sense that no one, even the biggest players, can know with 100% certainty what is going to happen next (the exact price movement with a precise price target). However, as gspajon correctly pointed out, "The certainty you seek comes with knowing the probabilities of your methodized approach and the rock solid discipline to deploy it." I think there a couple important points that need to be understood: Seeing the order flow and analyzing psychology of traders who are currently in the market will shift the success...
It was posted somewhere else in a slightly different context a couple of days ago.

Quoting Chicky
................ It is very easy for people like Mark Douglas to suggest probabilistic trading approach with predetermined risk and reward targets for each trade, but risk stemming from exceptions will always be much greater than any windfall profits. There are so many br0ker tactics working against us. Variable spreads in one such tactic. You lose both ways if spreads get widened. One million dollar question is what to do in such a situation? If we try to play safe, return gets ridiculously small. If we trade for decent profit, either risk becomes...
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #40
  • Apr 2, 2015 12:23am Apr 2, 2015 12:23am
Well space i believe with good money management and clear momentum direction, one can profit from unpredictable market. Well to define momentum direction, one has to go through experience in trading to figure out how to determine the direction but the key is how much u can afford to lose and not how much u can afford to win. Just don't give up and one will eventually reach profitability.
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