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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,741
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:47am Apr 1, 2015 1:47am
Quoting anima999
{quote} Cable is certainly a very good short. What suprised me the most was the delayed reaction to the news. Normally there is atleast a little bit of whipsaw as its released but it was a lot calmer than I expected. People saving themselves for NFP. Out of interest, what specifically do you look for in the PA to point down?
Nothing specific for downwards movement; the same method applies for up & down. A mix of daily fibonacci points + weekly, recent support/resistances, diagonal trendlines, and RSI as a relative indicator (never the leading one). I also look for failure to hit certain S/R and points of contention, as well as certain patterns in the 1~15min. chart.

Edit: Also, I use the ichimoku cloud.

Mix that with upcoming events, recent tweets & announcements from various news outlets, and general fundamentals (i.e. overall economic state of country).

Price Action itself is really general in its methods; it's pretty much anything involving charts & technicals.

Update: I just missed out on another 40+ pips for the cable short but who cares. I got my fill..........but I still wish the damn geppy would fall.
  • #9,742
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:47am Apr 1, 2015 1:47am
I see two patterns on GJ 1HR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I expect 178 will be printed again, from there...
  • #9,743
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:51am Apr 1, 2015 1:51am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Nothing specific for downwards movement; the same method applies for up & down. A mix of daily fibonacci points + weekly, recent support/resistances, diagonal trendlines, and RSI as a relative indicator (never the leading one). I also look for failure to hit certain S/R and points of contention, as well as certain patterns in the 1~15min. chart Mix that with upcoming events, recent tweets & announcements from various news outlets, and general fundamentals (i.e. overall economic state of country). Price Action itself is really general in...

Thanks,
Off to walk the dog. Be back in an hour
  • #9,744
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:54am Apr 1, 2015 1:54am
Quoting anima999
I see two patterns on GJ 1HR {image} {image} I expect 178 will be printed again, from there...
Maybe. Look for key breaks. In some cases, ascending triangles can break downwards instead of upwards, and descending triangles can break upwards.

We need to puncture the hourly ichimoku cloud support around 177.40 to get to 177.
  • #9,745
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:58am Apr 1, 2015 1:58am
I think it will go up 178.0 then it will decide.
  • #9,746
  • Edited 2:24am Apr 1, 2015 2:05am | Edited 2:24am
Quoting TuTang
I think it will go up 178.0 then it will decide.
NFP might also lead to a choppy geppy; If I have to trade the pound sterling around NFP event, I'd trade the cable.

Geppy has a good chance of experiencing a whiplash.

Update: Geppy is below 177.30; we're pretty much guaranteed to hit 177.10/00. I don't know what happens afterwards.

Update 2: IF gbp/usd hits around 1.4700 prior to NFP, I'm taking a long there. I would be wary of gbp/jpy if gbp/usd hits below 1.47400 support; we may see price dip below 177. Whether it stays below or not is up to debate, should that event occur.
  • #9,747
  • Edited 3:00am Apr 1, 2015 2:41am | Edited 3:00am
Its back at that same 1/4 level again.
Should have seen this divergance:
Attached Image


Quite annoyed really as divergance usually features in my tradinig quite alot, I got too focused on the fundys
  • #9,748
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:04am Apr 1, 2015 3:04am
NFP is still on Good Friday. The lesser ADP employment change is up in a few hours.
  • #9,749
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:13am Apr 1, 2015 3:13am
Quoting anima999
Its back at that same 1/4 level again. Should have seen this divergance: {image} Quite annoyed really as divergance usually features in my tradinig quite alot, I got too focused on the fundys
Never ever ever use or trust divergence in a correction. Did I say never? Momentum loss in a correction masks as divergence and vice versa and can lead to false analysis. Did I say never? Sometimes it's good .. other times not so. Just a bit of friendly advice.
  • #9,750
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:26am Apr 1, 2015 3:26am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} NFP might also lead to a choppy geppy; If I have to trade the pound sterling around NFP event, I'd trade the cable. Geppy has a good chance of experiencing a whiplash. Update: Geppy is below 177.30; we're pretty much guaranteed to hit 177.10/00. I don't know what happens afterwards. Update 2: IF gbp/usd hits around 1.4700 prior to NFP, I'm taking a long there. I would be wary of gbp/jpy if gbp/usd hits below 1.47400 support; we may see price dip below 177. Whether it stays below or not is up to debate, should that event occur.
Im a newb so pls dont mind for my next question thoWhats the effect of Friday NFP to Geppy?
  • #9,751
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:30am Apr 1, 2015 3:30am
Always nice to wake up to profit. Had pending short set before went to bed 178.2 woke up to TP hit for +60 pips. Going to watch what happens around 177.6 right now.
  • #9,752
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:31am Apr 1, 2015 3:31am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Never ever ever use or trust divergence in a correction. Did I say never? Momentum loss in a correction masks as divergence and vice versa and can lead to false analysis. Did I say never? Sometimes it's good .. other times not so. Just a bit of friendly advice.
Appreciated, the more the merrier.

Quote
Im a newb so pls dont mind for my next question thoWhats the effect of Friday NFP to Geppy?

Its the employment change in the US (excluding farm, government, casual workers etc). It is a major indicator on how the US economy is doing. Since the dollar is the fulcrum upon which all other currencies are measured, crosses such as GJ can be erratic. If NFP is good then dollar goes up but it doesn't necesarily mean everything else goes down.
Super volotile market conditions so stay out unless you are comfortable with losing.
  • #9,753
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:48am Apr 1, 2015 4:48am
Quoting anima999
{quote} Appreciated, the more the merrier. {quote} Its the employment change in the US (excluding farm, government, casual workers etc). It is a major indicator on how the US economy is doing. Since the dollar is the fulcrum upon which all other currencies are measured, crosses such as GJ can be erratic. If NFP is good then dollar goes up but it doesn't necesarily mean everything else goes down. Super volotile market conditions so stay out unless you are comfortable with losing.
Very unlucky recently. NZD formed a harmonic bat at daily. i didnt have the balls and other volatile pair looks more attractive then so i didnt enter now it managed to down by more than 200pips but chose EUR scalp with 30 pips tp. Got run over by geppy by 2 pips over my SL twice then it bounce back so bad. I think i should just stay out for now
  • #9,754
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:02am Apr 1, 2015 5:02am
My outlook. We will test 175.5 I believe sometime this week. We either bounce and form a double bottom there or were headed to 170 on a break.
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  • #9,755
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:37am Apr 1, 2015 5:37am
you can do it...
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  • #9,756
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:40am Apr 1, 2015 5:40am
Quoting thegmann
My outlook. We will test 175.5 I believe sometime this week. We either bounce and form a double bottom there or were headed to 170 on a break. {image}
I don't know. I reckon more ranging until NFP on Friday. Its week, month, quater end and bank holidays all over the coming Fri/weekend/Mon.
If it reaches Ray 176.9 1/2 DP I might be convinced for a long.
  • #9,757
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:47am Apr 1, 2015 5:47am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I don't know. I reckon more ranging until NFP on Friday. Its week, month, quater end and bank holidays all over the coming Fri/weekend/Mon. If it reaches Ray 176.9 1/2 DP I might be convinced for a long.
maybe, low liquidity can cause crazy things to happen
  • #9,758
  • Apr 1, 2015 6:24am Apr 1, 2015 6:24am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} maybe, low liquidity can cause crazy things to happen
that 1/2 DP is teasing us.....long didn't go too far yet.....but the fiscal quarter is over.....
  • #9,759
  • Apr 1, 2015 6:35am Apr 1, 2015 6:35am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} that 1/2 DP is teasing us.....long didn't go too far yet.....but the fiscal quarter is over.....
Yep, I had a long order primed for that DP but it never quite gets there.
  • #9,760
  • Apr 1, 2015 6:43am Apr 1, 2015 6:43am
morning all

good nights sleep

dustbin levels for your viewing pleasure
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