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AUD/USD

  • #89,801
  • Apr 1, 2015 6:55am Apr 1, 2015 6:55am
any ideas about aud? will it continue weak before the rate?
  • #89,802
  • Apr 1, 2015 7:04am Apr 1, 2015 7:04am
Is this a red flag?

RBS: 100% chance of April rate cut

April 1, 2015
From Forexlive, OIS is pricing 74% chance of cut in April but RBS says 100%

We agree that there is little reason for the RBA to wait…However, we doubt the RBA will rush to cut rates after April and it may not need to if the AUD falls as we expect it to against a stronger USD. We are at least watchful of divergence with Chinese capital markets, but perhaps the AUD is a better guide to conditions in China,” RBS argues.
  • #89,803
  • Apr 1, 2015 7:10am Apr 1, 2015 7:10am
RBA doesn't have much choice to help AU.

Sydney house price has surged at least 60% since 2012. AUD only dropped 30%... so AU real estate rise around 30% (calculated in USD) even though the unemployment going higher and export declining...

RBA has to cut rate more.
  • #89,804
  • Apr 1, 2015 7:56am Apr 1, 2015 7:56am
Quoting boon
{quote} Nice chart and very likely. AUDUSD still heading south.
Thanks you
  • #89,805
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:27pm Apr 1, 2015 1:27pm
Oops, my trade has been stopped out earlier on... next time would wait for confirmation.
  • #89,806
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:48pm Apr 1, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting justlearning
{quote} The daily and weekly are still trending down with no respite so why trade against that?
IMO, we are ranging on the daily chart... more like a bull bear battle, as the bulls are trying to make higher highs as seen on the chart below.
Thus looking for a reversal on the 1 hour chart at the bottom of the range in anticipation price would remain within the range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #89,807
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:23pm Apr 1, 2015 5:23pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} the cable rebounded when mervyn king came out and said that cable is too low. all of a sudden 200-300 pip move and then all the good data followed. aussie has seen some pretty strong data but has to catch up with the data due to the shitty dollar. the dollar's fate will be sealed today if ADP is bad
I'm not going to disagree that AUD/USD will go to .85 because ultimately I don't know. Where I strongly disagree is with your logic though - you will not catch Glenn Stevens coming out saying anytime soon that AUD is too low (my tip - that wouldn't happen at all but certainly not unless it was in the 60s - it was way too high for too long due to QE).

You are right that there has been some strong data but don't forget there is other data like unemployment that is pretty ordinary - we are considerably higher unemployment in Australia than this time last year. In my opinion the only way that A/U will shoot up is on USD weakness / taking a breather.

Poor ADP last night saw a bit of a spike but hardly sealed dollar's fate.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #89,808
  • Edited 7:29pm Apr 1, 2015 6:50pm | Edited 7:29pm
buying against the low vol audjpy move....in at 9091 stop 17 pips tp 9135 --stopped out-- won't thy that again lol
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  • #89,809
  • Apr 2, 2015 12:00am Apr 2, 2015 12:00am
iron ore fell below $US50...
  • #89,810
  • Apr 2, 2015 3:40am Apr 2, 2015 3:40am
Quoting Fx_Anil
AUDUSD is more likely to test Channel support, near 0.7535, on the sustained break of 0.7590. On the extended decline below 0.7535, the pair could test 0.7400 mark. {image}
Looks like you are onto something there.
  • #89,811
  • Apr 2, 2015 3:49am Apr 2, 2015 3:49am
Quoting MJBhinder
{quote} IMO, we are ranging on the daily chart... more like a bull bear battle, as the bulls are trying to make higher highs as seen on the chart below. Thus looking for a reversal on the 1 hour chart at the bottom of the range in anticipation price would remain within the range. {image}
Possibly and you could have said the same between Sept and Oct 14. But it seems that the major trend is still intact, so why take the additional risk and rather only sell at the top of the channel you have identified from 25 Jan. At some point it will change but considering the length of the down trend should we not look for reversal on weekly chart first before placing buy orders.

FX anil channel seems more convincing just now.
  • #89,812
  • Apr 2, 2015 4:13am Apr 2, 2015 4:13am
HA chart with trading made simple.
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  • #89,813
  • Apr 2, 2015 4:16am Apr 2, 2015 4:16am
AUD USD Weekly HA
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  • #89,814
  • Apr 2, 2015 4:48am Apr 2, 2015 4:48am
5min chart, I am going to place a sell order at 7590 or there about.
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  • #89,815
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:55am Apr 2, 2015 8:55am
A big jump with US opening anyway sell placed.
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  • #89,816
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:19am Apr 2, 2015 9:19am
Closed for quick profit too many dojis.
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  • #89,817
  • Apr 2, 2015 12:07pm Apr 2, 2015 12:07pm
just wanted to short , but went boom ,waited for 7691 to short
  • #89,818
  • Apr 2, 2015 11:19pm Apr 2, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting justlearning
{quote} Looks like you are onto something there.
Happy to see the right forecast
  • #89,819
  • Apr 3, 2015 10:39am Apr 3, 2015 10:39am
looks like the buyers and sellers can't make up there minds at the moment...me personally would like a run at the today's high for a short..don't see it happening though..just a thought..anyone else see anything worth talking about...good luck everyone..
  • #89,820
  • Apr 3, 2015 10:50am Apr 3, 2015 10:50am
AUDUSD's last leg up to complete 2 months long correction iv.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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