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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,721
  • Mar 31, 2015 9:48pm Mar 31, 2015 9:48pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} If the spike above 178 (~178.30) wasn't a false breakout, 177.10/00 is good to long. If news & data tomorrow turn it below 177, expect 176.60/50 as first support.
thanks.

I'd like to go long if so, but concerned about the fact that as gbp/usd rises usd/jpy falls. Mostly, that jpy is doing nothing.
  • #9,722
  • Mar 31, 2015 9:52pm Mar 31, 2015 9:52pm
Well, in the absence of current bearishness from Cable, UJ is doing a sterling job - pun intended. UJ at 119 threatens and under 118.3 confirms reversal, probably and eventually back into 112/110 or so.
  • #9,723
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:45pm Mar 31, 2015 11:45pm
If you look carefully, this is following a rising bull flag or maybe forming a rising wedge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 38 KB
Lost....
  • #9,724
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:56pm Mar 31, 2015 11:56pm
that 15M chart said buy three hours or less ago....
  • #9,725
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:10am Apr 1, 2015 12:10am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
that 15M chart said buy three hours or less ago....
Which was 4a my time......the wife will probably kick my ass if I woke her up!

Anyway, this is going north and I'd expect this to cap at 178.4 maybe. If it breaks through this channel, (which looks like it), then we're entering uncharted territory (could be a bull trend, a bull trap, or just bullshit).
Lost....
  • #9,726
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:17am Apr 1, 2015 12:17am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Which was 4a my time......the wife will probably kick my ass if I woke her up! Anyway, this is going north and I'd expect this to cap at 178.4 maybe. If it breaks through this channel, (which looks like it), then we're entering uncharted territory (could be a bull trend, a bull trap, or just bullshit).
familiar ole 178.43 exactly....
  • #9,727
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:31am Apr 1, 2015 12:31am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Which was 4a my time......the wife will probably kick my ass if I woke her up! Anyway, this is going north and I'd expect this to cap at 178.4 maybe. If it breaks through this channel, (which looks like it), then we're entering uncharted territory (could be a bull trend, a bull trap, or just bullshit).
Nicely predicted. Stopped right around 178.425 (for now at least). Only problem is, with the upcoming news (NFP) and all, I still can't definitively tell whether this is a intraday bull trend or just a bull trap.

We only have 30 minutes until London session begins, but somehow during the last hour or so of Asian session we've had a 80 pip rise...not normal, and is a bit worrying.
  • #9,728
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:37am Apr 1, 2015 12:37am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Nicely predicted. Stopped right around 178.425 (for now at least). Only problem is, with the upcoming news (NFP) and all, I still can't definitively tell whether .
I hope London drops this like a bad habit.
Lost....
  • #9,729
  • Edited 2:10am Apr 1, 2015 1:11am | Edited 2:10am
Going long at 178.1, let's see if 178 holds and we get 179 today

Edit: Out of this for now. Not today either it seems
  • #9,730
  • Edited 2:29am Apr 1, 2015 1:33am | Edited 2:29am
Short at 178.019. Manual soft SL, hard SL at 178.550

Update: Now moved SL to 177.970. Considering that I shorted a whole lot, I'll still come out by a couple dozen dollars even if we go back up.

Sit back, relax, and let the bears run.
  • #9,731
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:24am Apr 1, 2015 2:24am
Morning team,
All eyes on NFP at lunch time but don't forget UK manufacturing data in an hour.

So far a fairly bad two weeks for me so here's to hoping NFP kicks off some easier trading. I put it down to giving up smoking and taking up running.

P.S congratulations on getting your school placement - I'll probably be subscribing to you soon 😄
  • #9,732
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:29am Apr 1, 2015 2:29am
Quoting anima999
I put it down to giving up smoking and taking up running.

Props for that

Good morning
  • #9,733
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:32am Apr 1, 2015 2:32am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Nicely predicted. Stopped right around 178.425 (for now at least). Only problem is, with the upcoming news (NFP) and all, I still can't definitively tell whether this is a intraday bull trend or just a bull trap. We only have 30 minutes until London session begins, but somehow during the last hour or so of Asian session we've had a 80 pip rise...not normal, and is a bit worrying.
I might go in for a long at the bottom of this -watching .4xxx as previous resistance. If it doesn't work out then I'm done until NFP.
  • #9,734
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:36am Apr 1, 2015 2:36am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I might go in for a long at the bottom of this -watching .4xxx as previous resistance. If it doesn't work out then I'm done until NFP.
I'm looking at 177.2 for long, considering that that support occurred during Asia session and the support on NY/London/Frankfurt is at 177.1
  • #9,735
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:37am Apr 1, 2015 2:37am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I might go in for a long at the bottom of this -watching .4xxx as previous resistance. If it doesn't work out then I'm done until NFP.
177.10/00 is good for scalping, but just make sure your trade sizes are manageable, since it's more than possible to go down 20-30 pip below 177 before climbing back up (i.e. scraping the halfway point to the next support, 176.60/50).

Edit: If downward trend is too strong, however, it may also just punch through 177 after wandering around the price for a while. Be wary of that as well.

Out of curiosity, is anyone here trading in whole lot increments? If so, which currency pairs do you usually go for?
  • #9,736
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:41am Apr 1, 2015 2:41am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} 177.10/00 is good for scalping, but just make sure your trade sizes are manageable, since it's more than possible to go down 20-30 pip below 177 before climbing back up (i.e. scraping the halfway point to the next support, 176.60/50). Out of curiosity, anyone here trade in whole lot increments? If so, which currency pairs do you usually go for?
When scalping a market like this I'm in for 1% or less as I've yet to prove myself any good at it.
  • #9,737
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:22am Apr 1, 2015 3:22am
Quoting Vermillion
Short at 178.019. Manual soft SL, hard SL at 178.550 Update: Now moved SL to 177.970. Considering that I shorted a whole lot, I'll still come out by a couple dozen dollars even if we go back up. Sit back, relax, and let the bears run.
Update 1: Re-entered short at 178.
  • #9,738
  • Edited 3:37am Apr 1, 2015 3:23am | Edited 3:37am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Update 1: Re-entered short at 178.
News in 8 mins mind.

Edit:
Bit of a non event. Price now at DP 178, 178.4 rejected earlier. I'm staying flat but could understand a short.
  • #9,739
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:39am Apr 1, 2015 3:39am
Quoting anima999
{quote} News in 8 mins mind. Edit: Bit of a non event. Price now at DP 178, 178.4 rejected earlier. I'm staying flat but could understand a short.
I'm short gbp/usd and gbp/jpy. My pound sterling price action points to lower areas.

I was right, but unfortunately for me, the usd/jpy is holding strong while gbp is devaluing, which causes a bit of a cockblock. I mean, My short from 1.48600 for gbp/usd is already at hundreds of dollars in profit.

The geppy, however...the less said, the better. Really disappointing, you know.

Update: Just closed my gbp/usd short for 70 pips at 1.47900. Possible lower areas, but given the large trading size, I don't want to lose any.

The usd/jpy....I hate it. So. Very. Much.
  • #9,740
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:42am Apr 1, 2015 3:42am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I'm short gbp/usd and gbp/jpy. My pound sterling price action points to lower areas. I was right, but unfortunately for me, the usd/jpy is holding strong while gbp is devaluing, which causes a bit of a cockblock. I mean, My short from 1.48600 for gbp/usd is already at hundreds of dollars in profit. The geppy, however...the less said, the better. Really disappointing, you know.
Cable is certainly a very good short.

What suprised me the most was the delayed reaction to the news. Normally there is atleast a little bit of whipsaw as its released but it was a lot calmer than I expected. People saving themselves for NFP.

Out of interest, what specifically do you look for in the PA to point down?
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