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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,701
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:10am Mar 31, 2015 10:10am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} {quote} True. Lot's of bouncing off supp/res levels with no apparent direction. Which makes s/t pa more irrelevant - imo of course. GBP/JPY will happily follow USD/JPY either way it moves. Given overcrowding of USD longs, need JPY weakness. In a word: Abe.
Further QE consideration for the Bank of Japan is not expected until October for now.
  • #9,702
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:20am Mar 31, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Further QE expansion for the Bank of Japan is not expected until October for now.
ugh, blast.

however, assuming Abe doesn't shock the market beforehand, that may lend itself to a midyear move.

if this support zone holds up, the foundation may be in place.
  • #9,703
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:25am Mar 31, 2015 10:25am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} ugh, blast. however, assuming Abe doesn't shock the market beforehand, that may lend itself to a midyear move. if this support zone holds up, the foundation may be in place.
Worry about the NFP tomorrow; it'll have a decent effect on the market. As for Abe & Kuroda, they may just announce somthing out of the blue around halfway through the year, so I wouldn't necessarily buy into their statements about giving away further details in October.

By the way, allow me to clarify: it's CONSIDERATION for QE, not expansion. They said they're going to talk about QE in October, but they never said anything about deciding to expand it or not. Sorry about the bad wording from before; i fixed it right now.

And right now, I would not long the gbp/jpy. Might look tempting, but it's a bad price to long right now. Shorts? Maybe, but still risky. This is one of those prices where you're better off staying flat or holding onto your trades (if you have any from before)
  • #9,704
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:26am Mar 31, 2015 10:26am
Quoting thegmann
Huh interesting moves...definitely lot of chop and we're back to 178 guess getting stopped out BE on my shorts before wasn't too big a deal al though my TP was hit after getting stopped with price never retesting my entry, kind of glad took rest of the day off. The rejection of 177 seemed a bit strong but it could just be false move for MM to fill their shorts for eventual breakout down. Im sitting aside before taking any longs until we get above 178 area. I still feel 176.2-175.5 area needs to be tested. In better news I got into the grad school...
That's fabtasic news. Congratulations! What school
  • #9,705
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:33am Mar 31, 2015 10:33am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I expect a retest of 177.70/50. We may even hit around 177.40/30 before going back to 178+ Right now, I expect further consolidation (probably remaining above 177), followed by a retest of today's highs and beyond. Upside will likely be limited to around 179.10 for now. I'll probably add a long around 177.70/50, and maybe consider further longs if we retest lower areas. And if this never happens, at least I won't lose anything by staying out for now.
Thx for numbers mate. Thats about my primary entry (177,39). Secondary was 177,7 and that level is already cleared on partial. Stops + peanuts at 177,45. I dont like your target . But is valid, I know. Imo would need GU to test 1,4812 - where I also have stops (4811 stops).

Edit: Btw, last reload entry was 177,98 - I missed, wanted 177,85 - so may clear it at BE should momentum go against me and reload 177,7.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,706
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:36am Mar 31, 2015 10:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Thx for numbers mate. Thats about my primary entry (177,39). Secondary was 177,7 and that level is already cleared on partial. Stops + peanuts at 177,45. I dont like your target . But is valid, I know. Imo would need GU to test 1,4812 - where I also have stops (4811 stops).
Eh....sorry? But that's what I got. At least right now, we seem to be stuck around the 178.10 S/R. You could just lock in profits; that way, even if I was proven right, you'd still make a profit.

And for the GU, I got 1.48160 as the initial main support, +/- 20 pips. I don't know exactly; I need wider areas of S/R than usual, since the charts are moving differently from usual.

I'm also worried that depending on the NFP & U.K. manufacturing data tomorrow, this rise to 178.30 might have been just a false breakout, and we'll just punch through 177 within a few hours following the news tomorrow.

177 will be my main source of worry if I do go long.
  • #9,707
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:40am Mar 31, 2015 10:40am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Eh....sorry? But that's what I got. At least right now, we seem to be stuck around the 178.10 S/R. You could just lock in profits; that way, even if I was proven right, you'd still make a profit.
I am already locked in BE + peanuts. But I would just prefere to make cash compared to end at BE and go buy peanuts .

Am trading very slowly now, as Bubble Bobble account burned my April rent . So need to slowly make some cash which I can burn again like a sir.

I hope you guys are having a good time in the meanwhile. Am again out now, cya later, T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,708
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:41am Mar 31, 2015 10:41am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Eh....sorry? But that's what I got. At least right now, we seem to be stuck around the 178.10 S/R. You could just lock in profits; that way, even if I was proven right, you'd still make a profit. And for the GU, I got 1.48160 as the initial main support, +/- 20 pips. I don't know exactly; I need wider areas of S/R than usual, since the charts are moving differently from usual. I'm also worried that depending on the NFP & U.K. manufacturing data tomorrow, this rise to 178.30 might have been just a false breakout, and we'll just...
Also very valid point. Keep up the good work man!
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,709
  • Edited 12:25pm Mar 31, 2015 10:44am | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Also very valid point. Keep up the good work man!
Thanks. Good luck on your scalps as well; I think we'll both need it in this market.

Update: further downside below 178 seems to be solid now. Given the timing of the spike coinciding with the London fix around 4 hours ago, I'd say a retest of 177 is beginning to look more likely. The thing about spikes caused by end of the month fixes tend to have a correction. considering how long we've stayed in range market for the geppy in the past few days, downside seems likely for the next few hours.

Areas to watch for: 177.70/50, 177.40/30, 177.
  • #9,710
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:22pm Mar 31, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} That's fabtasic news. Congratulations! What school
Hey, thanks! Sorry for late reply its Fordham in NYC. Their International Political Economy and Development program focusing on international finance and banking. Alot of global/emerging markets analysis, exchange rates and exchange rate risk/hedging, and econometrics type stuff. Basically work for either an investment bank or the UN/US gov. as an analyst afterwards. I'm pretty excited it was my second choice behind John Hopkins Masters in International Economics and Finance program but i'm rather young and the average age of admittance is around 26 for that program with alot more work experience than I currently have. I think I posted a link to the program above it's pretty interesting stuff.
  • #9,711
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:49pm Mar 31, 2015 12:49pm
ive been short on AJ. believe my target is gonna get hit soon. 90.5
  • #9,712
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:03pm Mar 31, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting thegmann
Huh interesting moves...definitely lot of chop and we're back to 178 guess getting stopped out BE on my shorts before wasn't too big a deal al though my TP was hit after getting stopped with price never retesting my entry, kind of glad took rest of the day off. The rejection of 177 seemed a bit strong but it could just be false move for MM to fill their shorts for eventual breakout down. Im sitting aside before taking any longs until we get above 178 area. I still feel 176.2-175.5 area needs to be tested. In better news I got into the grad school...
Congrats G man!

On trading - had a long at 177.95 with SL a bit above BE. It got hit while I was out so I'm out of the market for now, let's see what tomorrow brings!

Successful trading and peaceful resting to all who need either (or both )
  • #9,713
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:12pm Mar 31, 2015 4:12pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Perhaps. Be wary of potential breakdown.
True...........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9,714
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:13pm Mar 31, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting anima999
anyone trying foer a short at the top? Ive left it but if it stays in the range could be a nice scalp.
Yes..........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9,715
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:13pm Mar 31, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting Hickson
Talking about manipulation in FX markets ... no, it ain't of course
The market is resting before the next big move..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9,716
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:20pm Mar 31, 2015 4:20pm
One last bit of info I will leave behind.

we are in a weak retracement and the market is resting.

Bollinger band squeeze for 3 days now...........

The green stochastic is entering an upper area and the blue stochastic is still low and short, this green sto will drop again torward the blue sto , probably even with good news wanting it to make it go long.

This same setup happened 2 weeks ago...............

Grab some when the Dragon drops.................
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ expect further down 2.JPG Size: 327 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9,717
  • Mar 31, 2015 6:01pm Mar 31, 2015 6:01pm
woah...
  • #9,718
  • Mar 31, 2015 6:05pm Mar 31, 2015 6:05pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I expect a retest of 177.70/50. We may even hit around 177.40/30 before going back to 178+ Right now, I expect further consolidation (probably remaining above 177), followed by a retest of today's highs and beyond. Upside will likely be limited to around 179.10 for now. I'll probably add a long around 177.70/50, and maybe consider further longs if we retest lower areas. And if this never happens, at least I won't lose anything by staying out for now.
Alright. 177.50 printed, now let's see if we get a good bounce or we go straight down to 177. I won't be longing right now; just holding onto my shorts from 178.113.

Quoting Vermillion
{quote}....Update: further downside below 178 seems to be solid now. Given the timing of the spike coinciding with the London fix around 4 hours ago, I'd say a retest of 177 is beginning to look more likely. The thing about spikes caused by end of the month fixes tend to have a correction. considering how long we've stayed in range market for the geppy in the past few days, downside seems likely for the next few hours. Areas to watch for: 177.70/50, 177.40/30, 177.
This is why longing upward spikes that happen during end-of-month fixes is often not a good idea. they come down a lot.

I still don't know what will happen at 177, though.
  • #9,719
  • Mar 31, 2015 6:55pm Mar 31, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Worry about the NFP tomorrow; it'll have a decent effect on the market. As for Abe & Kuroda, they may just announce somthing out of the blue around halfway through the year, so I wouldn't necessarily buy into their statements about giving away further details in October. By the way, allow me to clarify: it's CONSIDERATION for QE, not expansion. They said they're going to talk about QE in October, but they never said anything about deciding to expand it or not. Sorry about the bad wording from before; i fixed it right now. And right now,...
Cheers, dude. Thanks for providing this info.

Flat right now - seems a very brittle market at this current point in time. Given the lack of conviction overall, the only trades I see are when price "trespasses" past perimeter of given ranges - ie. range-trading . IMO
  • #9,720
  • Mar 31, 2015 7:03pm Mar 31, 2015 7:03pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Cheers, dude. Thanks for providing this info. Flat right now - seems a very brittle market at this current point in time. Given the lack of conviction overall, the only trades I see are when price "trespasses" past perimeter of given ranges - ie. range-trading . IMO
If the spike above 178 (~178.30) wasn't a false breakout, 177.10/00 is good to long. If news & data tomorrow turn it below 177, expect 176.60/50 as first support.
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