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WaveMaster's EUR/USD Outlook

  • #21
  • Aug 7, 2006 12:42am Aug 7, 2006 12:42am
No longer see a bottom. May be a start of new minor down trend. I'll find out tomorrow as it is time for bed. Typical trading day (0700 - 2200 PST)
  • #22
  • Aug 7, 2006 9:23am Aug 7, 2006 9:23am
Waiting to confirm my view of a bottom @ 1.2850
  • #23
  • Aug 7, 2006 12:22pm Aug 7, 2006 12:22pm
Analysis rejected
  • #24
  • Aug 7, 2006 4:57pm Aug 7, 2006 4:57pm
Starting to think that 1.2905 might be a top.
  • #25
  • Aug 7, 2006 5:18pm Aug 7, 2006 5:18pm
I have a new count that is bearish.
  • #26
  • Aug 7, 2006 7:28pm Aug 7, 2006 7:28pm
Prior to the NFP report I had a count that I was very confident in and knew that the move would be up. The thing is that I was not expecting it to go so high, thus my views were swayed and I have been a little lost since then. I now remember a lesson that I learned a while back is that news releases can distort or exaggerate the waves. So I'm now looking to fit the bullish count that I had prior to the NFP. It can still be valid, but I bet that I would be the only one in the world that would have this count.
  • #27
  • Aug 8, 2006 12:14am Aug 8, 2006 12:14am
I have what I believe to be a valid count for the move down from 1.2900. This has been the most difficult count I have encountered. I'm looking for a correction up to 1.2830 - 1.2840 then a move down. I will not be trading it, instead I will be sleeping.
  • #28
  • Aug 8, 2006 12:22am Aug 8, 2006 12:22am
I look forward to reading this thread.


turbo
  • #29
  • Edited 12:35pm Aug 8, 2006 12:05pm | Edited 12:35pm
Thanks for the support Turbo, I woke up with a headache and feeling a little discouraged but felt better after reading your post. I've been having a difficult time with it lately and feel that it's time to stand on the sidelines and wait for a clear signal.
  • #30
  • Aug 8, 2006 12:58pm Aug 8, 2006 12:58pm
Quoting WaveMaster
Thanks for the support Turbo, I woke up with a headache and feeling a little discouraged but felt better after reading your post. I've been having a difficult time with it lately and feel that it's time to stand on the sidelines and wait for a clear signal.
this latest major wave up has unfolded in 9 waves. That can be hairy to trade a wave like that. There is something in the e-wave book on a 9 wave formation. I'll look and see if I can find it.

Dave
  • #31
  • Aug 8, 2006 10:22pm Aug 8, 2006 10:22pm
Quite the whipsaw action post FOMC. That's what I was referring to when a news release goes against the trend and distorts the waves. So we have seen both examples of when news can exaggerate and distort the waves. The NFP Exaggerated and the FOMC distorted. I have figured out the discrepancy in my count and I have a brand new bearish count that I'm happy with and I do see 1.2900 as a top with a truncated 5th wave due to the NFP.

I favor shorts 1.2790-1.2810 and plan on staying up late (if needed) to get a good entry.

David I appreciate your input but there is no such thing as 9 waves in the Elliott Wave Principle.
  • #32
  • Aug 8, 2006 10:25pm Aug 8, 2006 10:25pm
Quoting WaveMaster
Quite the whipsaw action post FOMC. That's what I was referring to when a news release goes against the trend and distorts the waves. So we have seen both examples of when news can exaggerate and distort the waves. The NFP Exaggerated and the FOMC distorted. I have figured out the discrepancy in my count and I have a brand new bearish count that I'm happy with and I do see 1.2900 as a top with a truncated 5th wave due to the NFP.

I favor shorts 1.2790-1.2810 and plan on staying up late (if needed) to get a good entry.

David I appreciate your input but there is no such thing as 9 waves in the Elliott Wave Principle.
My team agrees with your five count mate I think one good US news and this thing collapses.

turbo
  • #33
  • Aug 8, 2006 10:38pm Aug 8, 2006 10:38pm
Quoting WaveMaster
Quite the whipsaw action post FOMC. That's what I was referring to when a news release goes against the trend and distorts the waves. So we have seen both examples of when news can exaggerate and distort the waves. The NFP Exaggerated and the FOMC distorted. I have figured out the discrepancy in my count and I have a brand new bearish count that I'm happy with and I do see 1.2900 as a top with a truncated 5th wave due to the NFP.

I favor shorts 1.2790-1.2810 and plan on staying up late (if needed) to get a good entry.

David I appreciate your input but there is no such thing as 9 waves in the Elliott Wave Principle.
why not try looking at the "distorted wave" from 1.2900 to the current low at 1.2764 as an a,b,c, correction to that truncated wave 5.

just an idea

Dave
  • #34
  • Aug 8, 2006 10:40pm Aug 8, 2006 10:40pm
Sell order 1.2795
  • #35
  • Aug 8, 2006 10:47pm Aug 8, 2006 10:47pm
order deleted
  • #36
  • Aug 8, 2006 11:12pm Aug 8, 2006 11:12pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
why not try looking at the "distorted wave" from 1.2900 to the current low at 1.2764 as an a,b,c, correction to that truncated wave 5.Dave
Because I see the truncated 5th as a wave C.

Favor shorts 1.2805/25

Thanks Turbo
  • #37
  • Aug 9, 2006 12:11am Aug 9, 2006 12:11am
sell order 1.2805
  • #38
  • Aug 9, 2006 12:14am Aug 9, 2006 12:14am
1.2810
  • #39
  • Aug 9, 2006 12:33am Aug 9, 2006 12:33am
1.2797
  • #40
  • Aug 9, 2006 12:39am Aug 9, 2006 12:39am
short 1.2797
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