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  • #321
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:15pm Mar 31, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting Zappa
Going long USDCAD now and giving it 100 pip stop. Target = 1.3100
Shouldn't you be putting a buy stop 100 pips lower than? haha..... My SL is currently at BE on UCAD... I guess I woulda put it above 1.2835.. Do feel like it's gonna bounce back on me, should really just take the damn profits.
  • #322
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:24pm Mar 31, 2015 3:24pm
Hard part in trading (one of them) is there are so many nuances that need to be noticed in PA and patterns that failure to do so can and will lead to losses. Let's take this latest loss of mine in USDCAD trade. Another lesson learned today (you'd think I'd have learned them all by now).

This range it was in was broken to the upside and then proceeded to fall hard back towards the bottom of the range. This usually means that it was a false breakout and now the range will be broken to the downside and most likely fall much further. The clue I missed was that highlighted rally after the hard fall. This was a clue, I believe. I missed it and then the market held out some bait which I promptly swallowed. It wasn't to long afterwards that my ass got smoked.

Below the range I drew what market would've looked like if it was going to break the range to the downside. There would not have been a strong rally as the trap would not be giving its victims a chance to get out.

Fuckin' A....another mistake, another lesson.
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  • #323
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:26pm Mar 31, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Shouldn't you be putting a buy stop 100 pips lower than? haha..... My SL is currently at BE on UCAD... I guess I woulda put it above 1.2835.. Do feel like it's gonna bounce back on me, should really just take the damn profits.
What can you do? If you're doomed, you're doomed.
  • #324
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:30pm Mar 31, 2015 3:30pm
The good part about this market is that all this trickery should lead to a big move when it breaks the range. Due to reasons already explained, I think the break is going to happen at the top.
  • #325
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:34pm Mar 31, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting Zappa
The good part about this market is that all this trickery should lead to a big move when it breaks the range. Due to reasons already explained, I think the break is going to happen at the top.
It seems you're letting the sideways market get the best of you. I still think USD will be under pressure. But like I was warning you, it isn't going to be in a straight line, must be patient, and gotta be willing to take 100 pip profits quickly, which I just did on UCAD (I'll probably regret this because it looks awful to be honest), i will wait for another bounce there and bounce back to lows/lower on EU to short USD again.
  • #326
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:38pm Mar 31, 2015 3:38pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} It seems you're letting the sideways market get the best of you. I still think USD will be under pressure. But like I was warning you, it isn't going to be in a straight line, must be patient, and gotta be willing to take 100 pip profits quickly, which I just did on UCAD (I'll probably regret this because it looks awful to be honest), i will wait for another bounce there and bounce back to lows/lower on EU to short USD again.
Ck, do you remember that PM the other day about the grand slams? Those were won off of taking advantage of a breakout out of a very long and tricky range.
  • #327
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:39pm Mar 31, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Ck, do you remember that PM the other day about the grand slams? Those were won off of taking advantage of a breakout out of a very long and tricky range.
Did you wait for the break out though, or did you get in before it happened?
  • #328
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:43pm Mar 31, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Did you wait for the break out though, or did you get in before it happened?
I lost a few times (losses were small as range was very tight) inside the range, before getting it right. Yes, I was in near the bottom of a range that broke to the upside later on.

And your right that you don't need to be positioned before the break, but to me I believe that the damage has been done and now the market has shown its hand. We'll see. Maybe I have another lesson waiting for me.
  • #329
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:48pm Mar 31, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I lost a few times (losses were small as range was very tight) inside the range, before getting it right. Yes, I was in near the bottom of a range that broke to the upside later on. And your right that you don't need to be positioned before the break, but to me I believe that the damage has been done and now the market has shown its hand. We'll see. Maybe I have another lesson waiting for me.
With this uCAD trade, I believe you will be in profit for 50-100 pips and have to get out with that because it will then break lower, we'll see though and I wish you well... until I'm short ucad again that is but still wish you well in trades that we're not against each other on haha
  • #330
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:52pm Mar 31, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} With this uCAD trade, I believe you will be in profit for 50-100 pips and have to get out with that because it will then break lower, we'll see though and I wish you well... until I'm short ucad again that is but still wish you well in trades that we're not against each other on haha
Same here, buddy.
  • #331
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:08pm Mar 31, 2015 11:08pm
Still think USD CAD gonna come down harder, long EURUSD but may add back UCAD position as well. I told myself I need to hold onto winning positions longer and UCAD is gonna be nice I think.
  • #332
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:31pm Apr 1, 2015 4:31pm
Just checking in. Was not stopped, but it came within 10 fucking pips. Shaking my head all day wondering what the fuck I'm doing. Needed to think, not post here.

Anyways, I'm down about 1% on this trade (never even got a chance to add size) and I'm taking the loss and moving trade to USDJPY. I believe USDJPY is going to 124.00. I still think USDCAD trade would have been a winner, but USDJPY looks better to me.

I've gotten away from how I got here, and that was done by concentrating on the lows/highs of a pair. I don't know how I got sidetracked, but important thing is I get back on track and win this next motherfucking trade! This next trade will be a winner, I know it!
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  • #333
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:43pm Apr 1, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting Ck87
Still think USD CAD gonna come down harder, long EURUSD but may add back UCAD position as well. I told myself I need to hold onto winning positions longer and UCAD is gonna be nice I think.
You made a great call last night, CK!

Yes, if you think USDCAD has a lot further to fall, then trust your instincts and LET YOURSELF WIN.

But what do I know? I didn't even make any money in March. I should just shut the fuck up. In fact, that's what I'm going to do for a while.

Good luck, and I won't be gone forever!
  • #334
  • Edited 11:50pm Apr 1, 2015 11:27pm | Edited 11:50pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} You made a great call last night, CK! Yes, if you think USDCAD has a lot further to fall, then trust your instincts and LET YOURSELF WIN. But what do I know? I didn't even make any money in March. I should just shut the fuck up. In fact, that's what I'm going to do for a while. Good luck, and I won't be gone forever!
You'll be fine, just need to adapt better to the current sideways market conditions.
Building long here for a swing... Can easily go lower but definitely one of the most oversold crosses with huge potential. Big move will come here sooner or later... good one to keep eye on
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  • #335
  • Apr 2, 2015 12:31am Apr 2, 2015 12:31am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} You made a great call last night, CK! Yes, if you think USDCAD has a lot further to fall, then trust your instincts and LET YOURSELF WIN. But what do I know? I didn't even make any money in March. I should just shut the fuck up. In fact, that's what I'm going to do for a while. Good luck, and I won't be gone forever!
Next grand-slam type play is shorting the US mkt, no doubt about that. If you're patient enough this month and wait for a rally in the Dow/S&P, there will likely be an area to sell and it'll come down 5-10% min over 6 months....the big money is looking to sell this month.
  • #336
  • May 20, 2015 5:53pm May 20, 2015 5:53pm
GBPJPY looks ready to pop.

Stop/Target/Entry on chart. Entering now.

(Edit: Disregard that purple line in the chart. This fucking line just appeared on my computer screen and won't go away.)
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  • #337
  • May 20, 2015 6:01pm May 20, 2015 6:01pm
As for an update on my last USDJPY call, it appears I will have been right. I am not still in that trade, however.

Just spent the last 50 days or so doing what I always do; work on getting better results by gaining new perspectives through intense testing and pondering of the markets. Getting the most insight by getting a certain visual setting on the weekly and daily charts. This is what I'm looking at (chart). So simple, yet so telling. Weekly chart at this focus setting is so clean. Add in some further perspective on a daily and even 4-hr, and you can make some good decisions. I've been testing this extensively.
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  • #338
  • May 20, 2015 6:49pm May 20, 2015 6:49pm
And here is another pair that looks ready to explode to the given level, AT A MINIMUM! (Chart)

It might seem odd buying after the market has just gone up 2,000 pips, but this is where the weekly perspective comes in. I would expect to see the next couple weekly candles to be large bulls, anything bearish and I get out. To really play it safe, though, you'd need to give it 1300 pips---which is fine when your target is also 1300 pips. Size accordingly.
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  • #339
  • Jun 11, 2015 6:58pm Jun 11, 2015 6:58pm
I'm going to exit the GBPJPY long now in favor of going short AUDJPY. AUDJPY looks clearer to me now than GBPJPY. Here's the entry, stop, and target.

This has a r/r better than 1:8. Going to see how it plays out.
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  • #340
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:35pm Jun 14, 2015 3:35pm
Hardest thing for me in trading is figuring where to set target. If I think (almost "know") it will go very far compared to where I place the stop, I worry that it will take too long and waste my time. There is much greater risk of a time-draining pullback along the way when I'm going for a big move. The target might eventually get hit, but it might cost a few months! Then there is always the risk that the market initially goes my way, but I am wrong about the larger move and the market reverses to take me out with small gain or loss.

On the other hand, it is awesome when the market doesn't play any games and goes straight to the big target.

I think that I should initially set a target in between 1.0 - 3.0 of initial risk, no matter how far I believe it will go. If the market makes a fast move to the target, I get out with the win and look for other set-ups. If, however, the market plays games "before" it hits my small target (while getting closer and closer to it), I will know that a big move is still ahead, and going for a larger target is safer.

So with that said, I am changing my target on AUDJPY to 92.35, which is < 3.0(initial risk). If it runs there quickly, I'll get out. If the market wants to play around for a bit while creeping towards the target, I'll go for more.
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