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Equity Down, Oil Prices Up

27.03.2015

Oil prices continue to rise due to the military action started by a coalition of countries in Yemen. This, however, had no bearing on equity rates – world major indices closed in the red yesterday.

As such in Europe, the British FTSE 100 dropped 1.37 percent down to 6,895.33 points, the German DAX shed 0.18 percent down to 11,843.68 points, and the French CAC 40 fell 0.29 percent finishing the trading session at 5,006.35 points.

Russia’s indices also posted a drop – the MICEX index declined by 1.08 percent down to 1,581.84 points while the RTS index fell 1.52 percent to 868.62 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones shed 0.23 percent getting to 17,678.23 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.24 percent to 2,056.15 points, and the NASDAQ fell 0.27 percent down to 4,863.36 points.

The NYMEX price of futures for WTI oil for May rose by $2.07 and made $51.28 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of May futures for oil of mark Brent went up by $2.51 and reached $58.99 a barrel.

On the global Forex market, EUR/USD has come to a halt as expected. At this point, it’s better to take a break and not enter the market.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

Generalized Forex Forecast for 30 March - 3 April 2015

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we have to mention that, according to the “open hands” symbol in the table, more than a third of the analysts are at a loss. However, the remaining experts are much more unanimous in their predictions than before:
- the forecast for EUR/USD remains the same – downwards trying to reach 1.0000 at least by the end of April. This week the pair may fall to around 1.0600-1.0750 where it will stabilize for some time;
- almost the same can be expected from the British Pound – most analysts predict GBP/USD would fall to 1.4700;
- as for USD/JPY, the forecasts of the analysts and of the indicators are contradictory. Yet, the pair is very likely to be in a bullish trend and try to conquer 120.50;
- just like last week, the USD/CHF chart may resemble that one of USD/JPY. In any case, all analysts expect USD/CHF to return to 1.0000. However, the forecast for this week is a bit more modest – a rise to 0.9750 or somewhat higher to 0.9800.

As for last week’s forecast:
- when predicting EUR/USD’s behaviour, we didn’t rule out a further short-term upward trend to around 1.0915-1.1040, after which everything was supposed to get back to normal. As expected, the pair quickly went up to 1.1030, entered a sideways trend, remaining strictly in the set bounds, and then predictably returned to the level of the beginning of the week;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was also confirmed – the pair stayed in the sideways corridor under bearish influence all week long;
- the predicted fall of USD/JPY got prolonged, and the pair started to recover its losses only last Thursday managing to rise just to the average level of February by the end of the week;
- a rare event occurred with the USD/CHF weekly chart basically repeating the USD/JPY chart, which overall matches the first scenario we suggested – at first the pair moves strictly downwards and then strictly upwards. With this, the upward movement doesn’t look too convincing so far and needs to be upheld this week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

http://s11.postimg.org/ozfvi3e37/For...r_3_Apr_15.png

Euro Falls, Indices Go Up

31.03.2015 07:00 GMT

Yesterday the world’s equity markets closed on the rise. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 grew 0.53 percent up to 6,891.43 points, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.83 percent up to 12,086.01 points, and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.98 percent up to 5,083.52 points.

On Russia’s floors, the MICEX index shot up by 2.52 percent making 1,611.22 points, and the RTS index advanced 2.5 percent up to 877.85 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones grew 1.49 percent up to 17,976.31 points, the S&P 500 added 1.22 percent reaching 2,086.24 points, and the NASDAQ gained 1.15 percent up to 4,947.44 points.

Oil prices, however, continued to decline yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for May dropped by $0.19 and got to $48.68 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for May delivery fell by $0.12 and reached $56.29 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD went down a little. Now the pair has quite a decent range for correction: 1.05-1.0960. The current decrease may extend to 1.0640.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

Generalized Forex Forecast for 4-8 May 2015

First, a few words regarding last weeks forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by exactly 50%. As promised, at the start of the week the pair strived to the top boundary of the corridor, which was defined by the highs of March and April. However, after that, instead of rebounding and going downwards, the pair rushed further upwards and reached the level of February;
- GBP/USD was much more docile it was rising for the first few days of the week but towards the end, as predicted, it rapidly rolled downwards and finished the five days where it had taken off;
- USD/JPY was predicted to continue its sideways trend and rise to around 120.80-122.00, which happened with 100% accuracy. The pairs sideways movement with a 120.28 high is clearly seen on the H4 and D1 charts;
- on the contrary, the analysts forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be 100% inaccurate. The pair was expected to mirror the movements of EUR/USD and it did. Precisely due to this, USD/CHF went downwards, reaching the level of February just like EUR/USD.

***

Now about the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be suggested that:
- the EUR/USD pair will be in a sideways trend with fluctuations in the range of 1.1100-1.1430, although the pair may fall to 1.0800, returning to the low of last week;
- the majority of the analysts think that GBP/USD will also be in a sideways trend in the boundaries from 1.5000 to 1.5300. This forecast is supported by the discordance in the indicator readings;
- like last week, most of the analysts and 82% of the indicators presume that USD/JPY will try to consolidate in the range of 120.00-122.00, the high for the coming five days being at 121.50. On the other hand, 8% of the analysts predict a sharp rebound downwards and a fall to the level of 117.00;
- finally, USD/CHF is most likely to take after EUR/USD, same as last week. If the latter moves downwards, USD/CHF, mirroring EUR/USD, will go upwards to 0.9500. With this, if you calculate the mean maximum and minimum based on all the forecasts, the pair should finish the next week exactly at the same level it had started, i.e. at 0.9335.
Roman Butko, NordFX

06.05.2015 07:30 GMT

Russian Equity Gains Due to Oil Price Rise Over Holidays

Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. European indices posted a drop – Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.84 percent to 6,927.58 points, Germany’s DAX slumped 2.51 percent down to 11,327.68 points, and France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.12 percent down to 4,974.07 points.

At the same time, Russia’s equity soared up, taking a cue from rising oil prices and ruble strengthening over the holidays. Thus, the MICEX index advanced 1.98 percent up to 1,721.80 points while the RTS index shot up by 4.24 percent altogether and reached 1,072.93 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.79 percent to 17,928.20 points, the S&P 500 shed 1.18 percent down to 2,089.46 points, and the NASDAQ dropped 1.55 percent down to 4,939.33 points.

On the NYMEX, the price of June futures for WTI oil rose by $1.47 and made $60.40 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the June future for oil of mark Brent went up by $1.07 and reached $67.52 a barrel.

Yesterday on the global currency market, the euro gained ground against the dollar. Today EUR/USD continues to go up. In case the chart pattern is completed, the pair can get to 1.14.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

08.05.2015 07:30 GMT

EUR/USD Is Correcting

Yesterday world financial markets posted mixed results again. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 0.67 percent to 6,886.95 points, the DAX grew 0.51 percent to 11,407.97 points while the САС 40 shed 0.29 percent down to 4,967.22 points.

Russia’s indices went down following oil prices – the MICEX index dropped 1.59 percent to 1,686.98 points, and the RTS index fell 0.51 percent to 1,060.73 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.46 percent making 17,924.06 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.38 percent to 2,088 points, and the NASDAQ advanced 0.53 percent up to 4,945.54 points.

Thursday evening oil prices went down. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $1.71 and reached $56.59 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of the Brent oil future for June was down by $2.03 and got to $65.74 a barrel.

On the global currency market, EUR/USD was slightly short of the 1.14 target and is experiencing a downward correction. Nonetheless, in case of favorable macroeconomic data, the pair may reach 1.1470.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 11 – 15 MAY 2015

«BINGO!” AND BLACK BEARS

As usual, first a few words regarding last week’s forecast:
- for the EUR/USD pair the forecast was fulfilled by no less than 100%. We supposed that the EUR/USD pair would experience a sideways trend and a possible descent to the 1.0800 mark. This is what actually ended up happening, as on Tuesday the pair fell into the 1.0700÷1.0850 zone and stayed there for approximately one hour before determinedly rising in order to finish the week at exactly the same mark as the mark it started from;
- the GBP/USD pair was strictly abiding by our “guidelines” of a sideways move all week until Thursday evening, maintaining an even narrower range than we originally supposed. However, this was followed by the announcement of the British election results, which surprised not only politicians but also financiers, resulting in the pair soaring up by more than 200 points
- Regarding the USD/JPY pair, the majority of both analysts and indicators asserted that the pair would keep strengthening in the area above 120.00. On the other hand, a rather tight-numbered opposition was foretelling a rapid downwards rebound. The result was that both groups proved to be right, as at the start of the week “bulls” were propping the pair up, not letting it fall below the arranged 120.00 line. However, they then weakened and passed on their influence to the “bears”. Zoologists claim that Japanese black bears prefer steep mountainous terrain, which, judging by the way the pair impetuously descended, is hard to disagree with. However, by the end of the week, the pair once again climbed upwards, returning to the 119.70 point, which it has been fluctuating about since the end of March.
- The USD/CHF forecast maintained that the pair would continue following in the wake of EUR/USD, acting as a mirror image of its “older sister”. Therefore, , looking at last week’s charts we can now shout “Bingo!”, since the forecast proved to be 100% accurate.

***

Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Aggregating the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts, which were based on an extremely diverse range of technical and graphical analytical methods, we can presume that:
- The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue occupying a sideways trend with fluctuations about the 1.1230 mark. At the very least, this is the conclusion we arrived at after looking at the neat split between expert opinions: ↑ - 22%, → - 3%, ↓- 19%, ↔ (raised hands) – 56%. A similar situation occurs with indicator showings: ↑ - 35%, → - 17%, ↓- 48%. The main levels of support 1.1060, 1.0850 and 1.0650, whilst the main levels of resistance are 1.1290 and 1.1440;
- For the GBP/USD pair an absolute majority of indicators (87%. ) on both H4 and D1 foretell growth. Analysts’ opinions, however, diverge (↑ - 25%, → - 9%, ↓- 22%, ↔ – 44%. ). Since the pair has already reached quite a high level of 1.5600, there exists a significant probability that the pair will attempt to barge through the resistance and settle in the 1.5475÷1.5785 zone. However, a failure to do so and an ensuing descent to the 1.5000 support level can also be predicted with a similarly high probability.
- As for the USD/JPY pair, expert opinions and indicator predictions also diverge (experts: ↑ - 7%, → - 22%, ↓- 26%, ↔ – 45%, indicators: ↑ - 60%, → - 17%, ↓- 23%. ). However, both are satisfied with a Pivot Point level of 119.70, support at the 119.20, 188.75 and 119.20 levels and resistance at 120.05, 120.30 и 120.85;
- Regarding the near future of the USD/CHF pair, however, both analysts and indicators are in harmony: more than 75% of the former and 56% of the latter agree that the pair should rise and settle in the 0.9300÷0.9400 corridor. The next support level is 0.9190 and the next resistance level is 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

13.05.2015 08:10 GMT

Drop in European Equity Due to Greek Situation

Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. In particular, European stock markets slumped following the interim meeting of the Eurogroup and the Greek government. According to media reports, both parties still couldn’t reach an agreement on key issues. In this light, the FTSE 100 fell 1.37 percent to 6,933.80 points, the DAX dropped 1.72 percent to 11,472.41 points, and the CAC 40 shed 1.06 percent down to 4,974.65 points.

On Russia’s stock market, the MICEX index fell 0.23 percent to 1,704.62 points whereas the RTS index grew 1.01 percent finishing the trading session at 1,070.19 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones declined by 0.2 percent to 18,068.23 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.29 percent down to 2,099.12 points, and the NASDAQ fell 0.35 percent down 4,976.19 points.

Oil prices posted a rise, however. On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for June went up by $1.5 and made $60.75 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the Brent oil future for June rose by $1.95 and reached $66.86 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is experiencing some correction at this point. Nevertheless, the prospects of moving up to 1.1470 still remain.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

14.05.2015 07:40 GMT

Euro Began to Go Up

Yesterday the world’s financial markets closed mainly on the decline. In Europe, the FTSE 100 grew 0.23 percent to 6,949.63 points, the DAX dropped 1.05 percent down to 11,351.46 points, and the CAC 40 fell 0.26 percent to 4,961.86 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index shed 1.31 percent down to 1,682.26 points while the RTS index advanced 1.12 percent up to 1,082.21 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.04 percent to 18,060.49 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.03 percent down to 2,098.48 points whereas the NASDAQ added 0.11 percent making 4,981.69 points.

Oil prices also went down yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.25 and reached $60.50 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the cost of Brent oil futures for June delivery was down by $0.05 and made $66.81 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD went up and is moving towards the afore-mentioned target of 1.1470.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 May 2015

Let us start with a few words about the forecast for last week, which turned out to be quite accurate overall:
- the prediction for EUR/USD was that most probably the pair would stay in a sideways trend with fluctuations around the line of 1.1230, which did happen in fact. At first, EUR/USD went downwards, then returned to its Pivot Point, after which the bulls gained strength and began to persistently push the pair towards the upper boundary of the corridor. The level of 1.1440 was set as the final bastion of resistance, and the pair tried to break through it all Friday long. However, it failed and finished the five days in this very zone;
- one of the possibilities for GBP/USD was breaking through the resistance level of 1.5600, which was also supported by 87% of the indicators. The breakthrough happened already on Tuesday, and then the pair tried several times to rise above the upper boundary of the corridor – 1.5785. It didn’t succeed, though, and so settled down finishing at 1.5727;
- the Pivot Point for USD/JPY was set at 119.70, which was confirmed – the pair crossed it twice during the week, having stayed exactly in the average values of the specified corridor 118.75-120.30;
- USD/CHF turned out to be the only pair regarding which both analysts and indicators were only partly right. At first, everything seemed to go as planned – the pair began to grow and tried to consolidate above 0.9300. However, on Tuesday, in a powerful spurt, the pair broke through the support line and went down sharply to the low of a week ago.

***

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note the surprising unanimity of the analysts who predict growth for all four pairs. Such forecasts always raise strong suspicions because some of the pairs are generally characterized by multi-directional rather than direct correlation:
- for EUR/USD the opinions of the experts are as follows: ↑ – 40%, → – 3%, ↓ – 6%, ↔ (at a loss) – 51%. The indicators provide similar readings: ↑ – 83%, → – 17%, ↓ – 0%. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair has almost completed the Inverted Hat pattern and has to form just the second brim of the hat. Thus, it can be assumed that this week EUR/USD will hold in a sideways corridor of 1.1070-1.1530, and, after a small rise, the pair is expected to have a relatively strong rebound downwards;
- the D1 chart clearly shows that GBP/USD has reached the upper boundary of the corridor (1.5800) where it stayed for a month and a half at the end of last year. The pair is very likely to linger in the range of 1.5500-1.5815 for some time again. Therefore, despite the vast majority of the analysts and 91% of the indicators pointing to growth, one can expect prevailing bearish tendencies and the pair’s rebound downwards;
- the opinions of the experts and the readings of the indicators for USD/JPY diverge (the experts: ↑ – 42%, → – 3%, ↓ – 3%, ↔ – 52%; the indicators: ↑ – 26%, → – 4%, ↓ – 70%). Hence, the level of 119.40, at which the pair finished the previous five days, can be considered as a Pivot Point, and the readings of the indicators on the H1 timeframe and smaller can give further guidance. Support will at 119.20, 118.90, 118.75 and 118.50; resistance – 119.60, 119.90, 120.00 and 120.30;
- as for the near future of USD/CHF, the data for both analysts and indicators are similar to USD/JPY (the experts: ↑ – 40%, → – 6%, ↓ – 4%, ↔ – 50%; the indicators: ↑ – 17%, → – 9%, ↓ – 74%). At the same time, as USD/CHF is in an inverse correlation with EUR/USD, it may go up at least to around 0.9290-0.9380. In the case this forecast is not fulfilled, the support levels will be 0.9110, 0.9075 and 0.8980, resistance – 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Hello,
Do you also offer ECN accounts? Scalping allowed with software? Arbitrage? What are the fees per lot?

Grettings,

StyleX

18.05.2015 07:10 GMT

Euro Reached Its Target Level

Last Friday European markets closed in the red whereas Russian and US markets posted a rise.

In Europe, the British FTSE 100 fell 0.18 percent to 6,960.49 points, the German DAX dropped 0.98 percent down to 11,447.03 points, and the French CAC 40 shed 0.71 percent down to 4,993.82 points.

In Russia, due to corporate reports and strengthening of the ruble, the MICEX index grew 0.8 percent to 1,691.05 points, and the RTS index gained 0.86 percent going up to 1,063.94 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.11 percent making 18,272.56 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.08 up to 2,122.73 points while the NASDAQ fell 0.05 percent to 5,048.29 points.

The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.19 and got to $59.69 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the June future for oil of mark Brent went up by $0.11 and made $66.81 a barrel.

On the global currency market, EUR/USD has almost reached the earlier mentioned target of 1.1470 (just short of a couple of points). Now the pair is facing quite a big obstacle – the long-term MA on the daily chart and horizontal resistance at 1.1476. The pair may experience a considerable correction here and even roll back to 1.12.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

Attached Image

Hello, StyleX

Do you also offer ECN accounts?
Yes
What are the fees per lot?
http://nordfx.com/trading_account_ecn.html
Scalping allowed with software?
Yes
Arbitrage?
Sorry, no.

19.05.2015 08:20 GMT

EUR/USD Reached 1.12 Rate

Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. In Europe as such, the British FTSE 100 grew 0.12 percent to 6,968.87 points, the German DAX advanced 1.29 percent up to 11,594.28 points, and the French CAC 40 gained 0.37 percent up to 5,012.31 points.

On the Russian floors, the MICEX index fell 0.76 percent to 1,678.55 points whereas the RTS index posted a slight rise of 0.07 percent making 1,075.47 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones grew 0.14 percent to 18,298.88 points, the S&P 500 added 0.3 percent reaching 2,129.20 points, and the NASDAQ picked up 0.6 percent getting to 5,078.44 points.

On the NYMEX, the cost of June futures for WTI oil went down by $0.26 and made $59.43 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for June was down by $0.54 and reached $66.27 a barrel.

Yesterday on the Forex market, EUR/USD started to pull back from the daily MA and reached 1.12 today.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

Mods, please move this thread to the Commercial content or Trading Discussions section

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 May 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the past week. We then regarded with suspicion the analysts’ opinions that unanimously predicted growth for all four pairs, and our doubts were justified:
- taking into account graphical analysis and an almost complete Inverted Hat pattern, it was suggested that on drawing the second brim of the hat, EUR/USD would sharply go downwards to 1.1070, which happened in fact;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was also fulfilled 100%. The pair predictably bounced off the upper boundary of the corridor and finished near the corridor’s lowest mark – 1.5500;
- over the last few months it was often said that USD/JPY would try to reach the height of 122.00. However, all that time the pair couldn’t pass the level of 120.50. Finally, the long awaited breakthrough happened, and the pair almost reached the coveted peak, finishing the week at 121.55;
- considering USD/CHF movements, we predicted a rise to at least 0.9290-0.9380. The pair quickly completed the set task and between Tuesday and Friday it remained in this corridor. Only at the end of the week did the pair move further up, taking after the US Consumer Price Index.

***

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- it very well may be that EUR/USD’s story with the second brim of the Inverted Hat isn’t over yet. Judging by the experts’ opinions (↑ – 42%, → – 6%, ↓ – 52%), it can’t be ruled out that the pair will go up, although almost all the indicators point towards its fall (↑– 9%, → – 9%, ↓ – 82%). The level of 1.1000 may become a very strong support for the pair, from which it will move upwards. If the pair manages to overcome the resistance around 1.1110, it will enter into a sideways trend of 1.1110-1.1400 and continue to draw the hat pattern. On the other hand, if the indicators are right and EUR/USD, having broken through the support at 1.1000, goes down, it may reach the zone of 1.0660-1.0800;
- GBP/USD also appears to have reached a strong support level of 1.5500. The analysts each have their own opinion (↑ – 38%, → – 32%, ↓ – 30%), so do the indicators – on the H4 timeframe the consensus is for a downward movement, on D1 – for a rise. Thus, we’ll venture to suggest that in the next few days the pair will be fluctuating in the 1.5500-1.5800 range;
- the opinions of the experts also diverge regarding the future of the USD/JPY pair (↑ – 38%, → – 12%, ↓ – 50%). The indicators, however, are clearly on the side of the bulls (↑ – 91%, → – 9%, ↓ – 0%), which most probably will rely on the support of 120.70 and push the pair up to 122.00. The second strong support level will be 120.20;
- a strong inverse correlation between USD/CHF and EUR/USD has been mentioned repeatedly in the forecasts, which is why there are two possible scenarios for USD/CHF: the first is a rise to a very strong resistance level of 0.9500 followed by a rebound downwards; the second is a fall starting already on Monday. In this case, support will be at the levels of 0.9370 (weak) and 0.9300 (main).

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 1-5 June 2015

Let us start with a review of the forecast for the previous week:
- two scenarios were suggested for EUR/USD. One of them, supported by 52% of the analysts and 82% of the indicators, came true – the pair broke through the strong support at 1.1000, reached the zone of 1.0800 and, after a rebound, on Friday returned to where it had started – the level of 1.1000, which has now changed from support to resistance;
- there was total discord regarding GBP/USD among both analysts and indicators last week. Yet this pair also behaved decisively by immediately breaking through the strongest support at 1.5500 and running stepwise to the level below – the next support around 1.5300;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled and even exceeded expectations. The pair was predicted to go up to 122.00 while it actually managed to rise above 124.00, reaching the high of July 2007;
- the behavior of USD/CHF has become very predictable lately – a strong mirror correlation with EUR/USD. Something similar took place last week – USD/CHF was expected to rise to a very strong resistance level of 0.9500 followed by a rebound downwards, which did happen.

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the majority of experts (↑ – 69%, → – 12%, ↓ – 19%) predict a steady rise for the EUR/USD pair. The technical indicators on the H4 timeframe concur. Yet on D1 they show the opposite – a downward movement. Furthermore, the systems of graphical analysis clearly draw a rebound downwards from the strong level of resistance 1.1000 to at least last week’s support around 1.0800. In fact, this appears to be a most likely scenario;
- there’s a real clash between the analysts and the indicators regarding the forecast for GBP/USD. Most of the former are for a rise (↑ – 61%, → – 15%, ↓ – 24%) whereas the latter predict a fall (↑ – 17%, → – 8%, ↓ – 75%). Considering that last week, contrary to the expectations, instead of rebounding off the support of 1.5500, GBP/USD broke through it, the pair can be expected to hold out in the range of 1.5250-1.5500 for at least a week this time. Already on Monday or Tuesday it should be clear whether the pair will take a timeout or continue its fall to 1.5000;
- both experts (↑ – 57%, → – 14%, ↓ – 29%) and indicators (↑ – 78%, → – 18%, ↓ – 4%) foretell USD/JPY to rise further to the next symbolic high of 126.00, which the pair reached last all of 15 years ago. This historic charge may turn out not so easy to execute, and the pair may have to keep charging, pushing off the support in the area of 123.20-123.60;
- yet again, there is nothing original for USD/CHF – an inverse correlation with EUR/USD and no independent escapades. The most probable scenario is a rebound from 0.9400 to 0.9540. Or alternatively, a fall to 0.9280.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 8-12 June 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the majority of experts (↑ – 69%, → – 12%, ↓ – 19%) predicted a stable rise for EUR/US. The technical indicators on the H4 timeframe concurred. However, the systems of graphical analysis drew a downward rebound to the level of resistance at 1.1000. The rebound did happen, though not as strong as expected – the pair rolled down by 100 points and then, validating the experts’ opinion, moved upwards again reaching the strong resistance level of 1.1280-1.1300;
- the forecast for the GBP/USD pair was fulfilled 100%. It was predicted that despite the obvious gravitation towards the 1.5000 mark, the pair would spend the whole week in a sideways trend, which happened. The pair ended up where it had started the week – around 1.5270;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was also 100% accurate. It was expected that when assailing the height of 126.00, the pair would stage charge after charge, pushing off the support around 123.60. There were three such charges the previous week, and only on Friday did the pair break through the Japanese defence line at 124.60, almost reaching the target after a powerful surge;
- nothing original was predicted for the USD/CHF pair – an inverse correlation with EUR/USD and two possible scenarios: the first being a rebound from 0.9400 upwards, the alternative being a fall to 0.9280. The pair managed to execute both scenarios, after which it returned to the start mark of 0.9400.

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- an absolute majority of the experts and the indicators (61%) predict that EUR/USD will complete Friday’s correction and continue to move up to 1.1500. It should be noted, however, that the very same experts agree that in July-August the pair ought to move back down to at least 1.0400-1.0500. According to graphical analysis, on Monday the pair should grow to the level of 1.1190 and then dash downwards to 1.1000;
- the clash between the analysts and the indicators regarding the future of GBP/USD continues. Most of the former (77%) are for the pair’s rise while the latter (100%) are for its fall. Considering that last week the pair was in a sideways trend, it can be assumed that this week the pair will be fluctuating around the axis of 1.5270, remaining in a 1.5150-1.5450 range. On a larger timeframe, the pair can be expected to return to the area of 1.5000;
- last Friday, USD/JPY already arrived at the level of June 2007, and the next record high will be 135.00 where the pair was in the winter of 2002. However, for this purpose the pair must first take hold around 126.00. The technical indicators offer two possible Pivot Points – 124.30 and 125.40. It seems more probable that 124.30 will become a support level for USD/JPY, leaning on which the bulls will push the pair upwards to the area of 126.70-127.40;
- 70% of the experts, 61% of the H4 indicators as well as the systems of graphical analysis predict that USD/CHF will rise to at least 0.9530. The main support level should be at 0.9340, to which the pair may descend at the start of the week in order to shoot upwards then.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Crownless Krone

Currency Basket 2015-2016: How to Avoid Financial Setbacks

Causes and Effects of Black Thursday

Without question, the reliability of a currency concerns not only representatives of the IMF, central banks and other systemically important financial institutions but anyone deciding what country's banknotes will at the very least safeguard their savings and ideally increase them.

For the past five or six years, currency ratings have been topped mostly by the Norwegian krone and the Swiss franc rather than by the US dollar or the euro. Back in 2008, HSBC analysts declared the Norwegian krone the most stable currency in the world. The same was said about the Swiss franc by nearly all world leading experts.

In 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reaffirmed its commitment to the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro and was prepared to buy foreign currency extensively in order to maintain it. Thus, taking into account the average interest rate Libor, the pair was supposed to be trading at 1.22-1.24 in the medium term. Rumor had it that the SNB might raise the EUR/CHF rate to 1.3-1.4 due to a sluggish economic situation in Switzerland.

Over the recent years, the Swiss National Bank kept the established rate. On 12 January 2015, SNB vice president Jean-Pierre Danthine officially called the cap on the franc a cornerstone of the country's monetary policy. But already on Thursday, 15 January, catching the majority of financial market players off guard, the SNB decided to abandon all the restrictions for the currency market. As a result, the franc soared up almost instantaneously, even up to 30 percent at a time, which hasn't happened for the past 25 years.

Who were the losers? In fact, there were many:
■ Firstly, it's the SNB itself, whose assets were kept mainly in dollars and euros. As these currencies depreciated, the bank sustained a loss of about 60 billion.
■ Secondly, Switzerland's economy was dealt quite a heavy blow. According to national stock market data, on Thursday, 15 January, the Swiss Market Index (SMI), comprising 20 largest companies, dropped 8.67 percent. One of the country's main revenue items is exports. Swiss goods aren't generally cheap, and if, for instance, Swiss chocolate becomes more expensive even by 15 percent, it will quickly start giving way to French and Belgian chocolate. The same applies to medicines and other export products. In Jean-Pierre Danthine's words again, exporters may come short of 5 billion francs. On top of it, the share of tourism might contract whereas it currently stands at 7 percent of Switzerland's GDP.
■ Thirdly, steep losses were sustained by those who had taken out Swiss franc loans as they got more expensive by 20 percent overnight. In France, for one, such contracts made 50 percent. Millions of private borrowers in other countries were affected by that turn of events they considered the franc the most stable currency and thus believed that Swiss franc mortgages would be the most secure.
■ Deutsche Bank lost nearly 130 million due to the exchange rate, about the same as the US group Citibank in Europe and Barclays.

John Gordon, a leading analyst with international brokerage NordFX comments, "The exchange rate plunged so swiftly that brokers simply couldn't close positions fast enough and those who traded against the franc suffered huge losses. The consequences for the Forex market were very grave, and hundreds of thousands of people worldwide said goodbye to their capitals."

The next logical questions are why all that happened and who benefited from it?

Some analysts tend to believe it was a plot by financiers (like what George Soros did with the British pound on Black Wednesday 1992). To prove it, they refer to a recoil 20 minutes after the fall of the dollar and euro rates - the profits gained by the initiators of the crash. They say that the initiators actually skimmed a 20 percent profit in just a few minutes!

Despite the fact that such a recoil did happen, most international experts hold a different view of the event. According to Alessandro Bee, a strategist at J. Safra Sarasin AG in Zurich (one of the oldest banks in Switzerland), the Swiss National Bank didn't see any future for the franc rate cap, considering the strong US dollar and quantitative easing ahead in the eurozone.

Pick your reason (a possible Grexit, imminent ECB plans or the UK's in-out EU referendum), the euro itself is facing a serious crisis and soon - so much so that, in Swiss bankers' opinion, there's just no time to contrive smart moves. Therefore, regardless of the losses, they decided to unpeg the franc from the euro. Otherwise, the sinking 'euro Titanic' would inevitably pull down the Swiss economy in its wake. Switzerland's GDP certainly looks impressive with its $600 billion but, in comparison with the EU's total GDP of 15,669 billion, it's just too small to keep the euro afloat.

"What occurred has once more proved that its hardly possible to find an absolutely quiet and all-around sheltered haven for one's savings," says John Gordon from NordFX. "For instance, see what happened to the exchange rates of two of the most stable currencies supposedly. On January 15th, the Norwegian krone fell against the Swiss franc by over 17 percent. Krone investors lost majorly. Recently, I've come to realize once again that only a multi-currency basket can provide real capital protection. As for its makeup for the upcoming year or two, I wouldn't concentrate on Norway's krone. It's just too dependent on oil prices and has dropped against the US dollar by about 25 percent over the past year alone. So, despite the Black Thursday developments, I still wouldn't get rid of euros but actually stick with the classic combination - euros, US dollars and Swiss francs.

NordFX analysts believe that these three currencies aim at exchange rate parity around 1.0000, and the formation of such a congruent triangle should become the main trend for the next 6 months to a year. By the way, it's not just our opinion but according to NAB (National Australia Bank) forecasts, the EUR/USD exchange rate will reach 1.0000 already by this December and stay around it till at least the summer of 2016. Besides, SNB vice chairman Bruno Gehrig assured that the Swiss Central Bank would carry out large-scale interventions in order to curb growth of the domestic currency. To sum up, the tri-currency basket may not yield spectacular profits but, in any case, will help to prevent any tangible setbacks by acting like a gyroscope in a stable position regardless of the fluctuations on financial markets."