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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,641
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:17am Mar 31, 2015 1:17am
Quoting Mpt
Having probably completed at 178.2, the earlier diamond correction still projects two possible targets, (now measured from 178.2) as being .. 175.7/8 and/or 174.3
Probably a reaction at 175.70 (i.e. a bounce), with possible downsides having to face 175 & 174.30 as next main supports.

And on that note, please take note that the eur/usd looks to be in a small bounce whilst in a downward trend....I might consider shorting.

Quoting Vermillion
Given the price movement around 177.60, I'd say we're in shape for testing 177, with a bit of a bumpy road at 177.30 (quarterway between 2 fibonacci S/R). 177 will be the main source of contention; if that gives way, and the gbp/usd & usd/jpy prices coincide in mvoement as well, then we're probably gunning for 176.60/50, followed by 176 & 175.70/50. 175.70 is a great place to scalp longs for bulls & a good place for bears to cash in their shorts. There's lower risk than usual for longs, since it's the lowest point in 2015 for the geppy. those areas always get respected at least, so if the market seems to turn south, you could also choose to leave early. Go bears, go!
Let's see the list of goals enunciated previously:

Breach of 177.60/50 - Done
Bounce around 177.30 - Done (needs to go down to resume further downside)
Testing 177 - Not yet
Testing 176 - Not yet
Testing 175.70 - Not yet
  • #9,642
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:23am Mar 31, 2015 1:23am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Probably a reaction at 175.70 (i.e. a bounce), with possible downsides having to face 175 & 174.30 as next main supports. And on that note, please take note that the eur/usd looks to be in a small bounce whilst in a downward trend....I might consider shorting.
That's kind of what I would expect. Of course, we are assuming no more upside silliness.

The thing about being under 175 is that it's landed inside the weekly cloud and even though it would attempt to leave, the downside is significant
  • #9,643
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:29am Mar 31, 2015 1:29am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} That's kind of what I would expect. Of course, we are assuming no more upside silliness. The thing about being under 175 is that it's landed inside the weekly cloud and even though it would attempt to leave, the downside is significant
Yeah. I would normally have a prediction for the 175 area, but given the U.K. general elections (in about a month or so I think), I'd rather not give any mid term opinions. Too uncertain for me to make it worthwhile for me to go back to my drawing board.

Speaking of which, do you have any guesses on the results of the elections, Mpt?
  • #9,644
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:31am Mar 31, 2015 1:31am
I would like to see a short to 175.6 but at the moment it looks like a real possibility that if we get positive on 177.5 and 178.0 we'll also get 179 before price keeps going down (if it does, with three tests of 176.5/6 it looks like we've hit a solid floor for now; price needs to accumulate before taking it out either way)
  • #9,645
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:35am Mar 31, 2015 1:35am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Yeah. I would normally have a prediction for the 175 area, but given the U.K. general elections (in about a month or so I think), I'd rather not give any mid term opinions. Too uncertain for me to make it worthwhile for me to go back to my drawing board. Speaking of which, do you have any guesses on the results of the elections, Mpt?
Just like any state in Australia, or most Commonwealth countries, my prediction is a Labour win or a Conservative win - with minor coalition. I haven't kept across the UK polling so far.
  • #9,646
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:56am Mar 31, 2015 1:56am
OMG i put sell limit at 178.1 and it hit 178.098 this is so sad waking up to this
  • #9,647
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:23am Mar 31, 2015 2:23am
Quoting TuTang
OMG i put sell limit at 178.1 and it hit 178.098 this is so sad waking up to this
You haven't missed anything, tiny move. Will be hundreds more like this one coming up in the next few weeks (and after that)
  • #9,648
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:24am Mar 31, 2015 2:24am
Still looks like a major consolidation to me. Geppy is in absolute waiting or scalping mode in my view ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #9,649
  • Edited 3:16am Mar 31, 2015 2:31am | Edited 3:16am
On another note, anyone else looking to long EU if last week low holds?

Edit: Didn't hold, never mind
  • #9,650
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:44am Mar 31, 2015 2:44am
Quoting alexpi
On another note, anyone else looking to long EU if last week low holds?
i am LOL
i didnt expect it though, last week range would still be holding but too many speculative move on down. if 760 is broken i'll sell it but it still holding hard..
it seems, this time it will extend as far as 0.9
  • #9,651
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:58am Mar 31, 2015 2:58am
Quoting Trendline
{quote} Long time reader, first time poster. I'm new to forex and have been keenly following this thread. Thank you all for your inputs. I have gone through the whole thread but there is something i cant figure out. Can someone explain what 1/4 and 1/2 refers to. how do you interpret it? thanks
It referring to difference between the DPs. DPs are the decision points given by Fx-Ray. I will post a picture, ask if you still don't get it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJDPHalf.JPG Size: 113 KB
  • #9,652
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:43am Mar 31, 2015 3:43am
Quoting scamp
Tentative to break the high {image}
Updating
Attached Image
  • #9,653
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:49am Mar 31, 2015 4:49am
I missed the big candles just now so pending sell at .425, TP at 177.000

Its currently at a 1/4 level and Ray reccomends not trading them but the PA looks good and doesn't look like it will range here again.

Edit
15M Ichimoku giving off sells as well.

Edit2
1H UJ looking good for a buy
  • #9,654
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:58am Mar 31, 2015 4:58am
Quoting anima999
I missed the big candles just now so pending sell at .425, TP at 177.000 Its currently at a 1/4 level and Ray reccomends not trading them but the PA looks good and doesn't look like it will range here again. Edit 15M Ichimoku giving off sells as well. Edit2 1H UJ looking good for a buy
Knowing when not to trade gives a good return. Thanks.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #9,655
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:02am Mar 31, 2015 5:02am
Quoting anima999
I missed the big candles just now so pending sell at .425, TP at 177.000 Its currently at a 1/4 level and Ray reccomends not trading them but the PA looks good and doesn't look like it will range here again. Edit 15M Ichimoku giving off sells as well. Edit2 1H UJ looking good for a buy
In short at .340 TP at 177, SL at .500
  • #9,656
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:05am Mar 31, 2015 5:05am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Knowing when not to trade gives a good return. Thanks.
It does.
I'm not really trading the 1/4 levels...I'm not using it as an entry/exit signal, I'm looking for the 1/2 levels - and by definition for price to go from 1/2 to another 1/2 it must go through a 1/4.

In my eyes price looks to be going through the 1/4 level, not hovering there as it did yesterday.
  • #9,657
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:11am Mar 31, 2015 5:11am
Quoting anima999
{quote} It does. I'm not really trading the 1/4 levels...I'm not using it as an entry/exit signal, I'm looking for the 1/2 levels - and by definition for price to go from 1/2 to another 1/2 it must go through a 1/4. In my eyes price looks to be going through the 1/4 level, not hovering there as it did yesterday.
If you want to scalp very fast this is probably a good day. Otherwise it is the perfect day to get chopped up again.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #9,658
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:24am Mar 31, 2015 5:24am
This is an attempt at a most significant time in the life of this pair - a moment that may not be appreciated.

It is trying to establish a break and hold under the weekly 50 simple moving average. The first time it met it, it bounced 1100 pips. The second time it broke, but support thrust it back up and it rose 1800 pips and the last time 950 pips. It's up against all sorts of supports right now and the likelihood is that it will fail here or at at next support. But it is trying and should it succeed it opens up a major down move.
  • #9,659
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:36am Mar 31, 2015 5:36am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} If you want to scalp very fast this is probably a good day. Otherwise it is the perfect day to get chopped up again.
It is starting to look that way now. When I entered the price looked reasonably steady, not great and it certainly wasn't going to make big moves but atleast it was moving.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 29 KB


The range is starting to develop now. Shame, I was hoping the 1/4 level was just a signpost rather than a pit stop.
  • #9,660
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:40am Mar 31, 2015 5:40am
Quoting Mpt
This is an attempt at a most significant time in the life of this pair - a moment that may not be appreciated. It is trying to establish a break and hold under the weekly 50 simple moving average. The first time it met it, it bounced 1100 pips. The second time it broke, but support thrust it back up and it rose 1800 pips and the last time 950 pips. It's up against all sorts of supports right now and the likelihood is that it will fail here or at at next support. But it is trying and should it succeed it opens up a major down move.
Interesting. Do you think the NFP on Friday may provide enough of a shove to either bounce it far from, or through the supports you mention?
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