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Fundamental Trading with a Directional Bias

  • #121
  • Mar 30, 2015 3:06pm Mar 30, 2015 3:06pm
@bullbearies

Very true yeah, I used to find this so confusing and random before I pieced the two together. To be honest, there are that many people adding indicators to charts, coming up with these 'systems', adding filters, and still getting nowhere. Then, they call us out and say fundies don't work even though we post as we do and have success.

Truly wish more people would listen, for the benefit of themselves...
  • #122
  • Mar 30, 2015 3:08pm Mar 30, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting Renaud
Hi, What news feed would you suggest to get news update as soon as they are released (economic calendar) ?
@Renaud I personally don't spend much time in front of the computer, but always have my phone at hand. I follow @ForexLive and @livesquawk on Twitter, have notifications turned on, and they post the real time events as they happen. Obviously not as quick as paid services, but I don't trade that way as you can gather from this thread. The best part of it, it's free!!
  • #123
  • Edited 8:17pm Mar 30, 2015 8:05pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting Renaud
Hi, What news feed would you suggest to get news update as soon as they are released (economic calendar) ?

I use this to keep me updated. Google any RSS feeder program.




http://prntscr.com/6nit0s


For the economic release that are scheduled.... FF, fxstreet.com and other free websites are more than enough. We don't have to jump in the trade as soon as the news is release. Most of the time price will retrace back.


Better be late than sorry, better lose an opportunity than lose your equity.


GL
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #124
  • Mar 30, 2015 8:15pm Mar 30, 2015 8:15pm
Quoting jakeparkin
@bullbearies Very true yeah, I used to find this so confusing and random before I pieced the two together. To be honest, there are that many people adding indicators to charts, coming up with these 'systems', adding filters, and still getting nowhere. Then, they call us out and say fundies don't work even though we post as we do and have success. Truly wish more people would listen, for the benefit of themselves...
Well... the technical Analysis system is by far very convenient because they always look at the PAST. So that it can be coded to make one's life easier and to give us a mirror to look BACK.

While Fundamental Analysis aka FA system is a bit harder as they can't be coded. BUT it shape the future of the price. Because we are trading for the future price then FA MUST come first, then followed by TA.

I wouldn't be very confident to enter a trade if they both don't align together to support my trades.

GL
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #125
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:21am Mar 31, 2015 3:21am
EU is down

GBP forecast is :

http://prntscr.com/6nltbe

Therefore

http://prntscr.com/6nlshf

GL
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #126
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:54am Mar 31, 2015 11:54am
Asian pair bias trading


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud bias trading after london.png Size: 35 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY Bias trading after london.png Size: 42 KB
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #127
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:06am Apr 1, 2015 12:06am
Update ...
UJ wins
AU loss
Small proft taken
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #128
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:22pm Apr 1, 2015 12:22pm
@bullbearies you've posted some fantastic stuff here, it's amazing how predictable we can make it.

AUD gapped over the weekend and had lost a lot of value by the time you entered so I personally wouldn't have took it at that level. Tbf, it does boil down to value.
  • #129
  • Apr 5, 2015 8:16am Apr 5, 2015 8:16am
Quoting jakeparkin
@bullbearies you've posted some fantastic stuff here, it's amazing how predictable we can make it. AUD gapped over the weekend and had lost a lot of value by the time you entered so I personally wouldn't have took it at that level. Tbf, it does boil down to value.
Can't agree more with you. Very often better to stay aside and watch TV than trying to push our luck in the market. But overall as long as we have a light to enter the dark channel of Forex Market then we would end up with +pips.

Cheers Mate,
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #130
  • Apr 7, 2015 8:06am Apr 7, 2015 8:06am
Another fundamental bias trading with low risk.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY bias trading before BOJ rate.png Size: 47 KB



GL
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #131
  • Apr 12, 2015 2:11am Apr 12, 2015 2:11am
Dear Jakeparkin, your fundamental explanations and analyses have been magical so far. Great thread indeed.

What I noticed in the past week that prices were not responding much to fundamentals. How would you consider that?

Thanks.
Success - It's not always what you see
  • #132
  • Apr 12, 2015 5:17am Apr 12, 2015 5:17am
@bullbearies

Great trade there mate!
  • #133
  • Apr 12, 2015 5:22am Apr 12, 2015 5:22am
@SakibFX

This past week the main event was the Aussie Dollar interest rate decision and statement. A rate cut has been heavily expected for the past couple of weeks and the market had priced this rate cut in, as you can see over the past couple of weeks the drop of the Aussie Dollar against stronger currencies such as the US Dollar. When the RBA didn't cut rates again, this gave the Aussie Dollar some great support from those 0.7550 levels, and now were hovering around 100 pips above that. The reason why it hasn't come back up more is because the markets are still expecting a cut at future meetings.

Sterling is a weird one at the minute as it's the General elections in the UK. This creates uncertainty around the Pound and makes it much more volatile as investors would rather move their money out of the Pound and put into stronger economies such as the US Dollar, and safe haven's such as the Japanese Yen.

Any other questions give me a shout and I'll do my best mate!
  • #134
  • Apr 12, 2015 9:35am Apr 12, 2015 9:35am
Quoting jakeparkin
@SakibFX This past week the main event was the Aussie Dollar interest rate decision and statement. A rate cut has been heavily expected for the past couple of weeks and the market had priced this rate cut in, as you can see over the past couple of weeks the drop of the Aussie Dollar against stronger currencies such as the US Dollar. When the RBA didn't cut rates again, this gave the Aussie Dollar some great support from those 0.7550 levels, and now were hovering around 100 pips above that. The reason why it hasn't come back up more is because the...
Great , again. Thanks.
Much appreciated.
Success - It's not always what you see
  • #135
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:32pm Apr 13, 2015 4:32pm
Good day Jake and everyone,

I've been reading the post on these Thread for a few days now and i find it very informative and helpful, especially for me

because i have a very minimal knowledge in using Fundamentals in my trading. I have been trying to follow the some trading systems

here in FF, and one time i have a great success but then all the profit just goes back and even wipe out my account. Well, that's history and

i have to live with it and learn from it.

Having read the post on these thread it open up my mind to a new understanding of the market.

Thanks Jake for sharing your knowledge and continuous help in explaining your ideas.

More power to you and to everyone.

Michael
  • #136
  • Apr 14, 2015 12:23am Apr 14, 2015 12:23am
Another GBP bias. Low risk entry and NEWS RESULT DIRECTIONAL PREDICTION.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP BIAS TRADING FOR CPI.png Size: 54 KB
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #137
  • Apr 14, 2015 2:59am Apr 14, 2015 2:59am
Usdsek technical and fundamental directional bias with news result
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDSEK DIRECTIONAL BIAS AND NEWS CPI.png Size: 60 KB
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #138
  • Apr 14, 2015 1:53pm Apr 14, 2015 1:53pm
Well done @bullbearies! I got in on Cable too, here's some analysis I posted before on TradingView https://www.tradingview.com/v/iwtRXEgq/ and then look now...

A good trade on USDSEK too, although I don't trade SEK
  • #139
  • Edited 7:00pm Apr 14, 2015 2:23pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting purdoy81
Good day Jake and everyone, I've been reading the post on these Thread for a few days now and i find it very informative and helpful.........
Michael,

My eyes have recently been opened in this direction also. This is a great thread IMHO.

I try to find 2-3 reasons why one nation's currency is fundamentally strong, and 2-3 reasons why another's is fundamentally weak. These must ideally be reasons that central banks and institutional traders are primarily focused on. Then, to maximize the probabilities, I pair the strongest currencies against the weakest.

For me, the tricky part is deciding whether to enter immediately at current market price, or to wait for a pullback against my chosen direction, which both further heightens any imbalance, and allows me to enter at a better/safer price (but at the risk of missing out on the trade, if the pullback doesn't eventuate).

Everything else being equal, I look to buy from zones of previous buying, or sell from zones of previous selling (which are basically levels of prior supply/demand, as taught by educators like Sam Seiden). Of course this is merely one possible approach........ if you want to use TA to fine tune your entry timing.

Good luck,
David

@Jake: please feel welcome to correct me if I have any of this wrong.
  • #140
  • Apr 14, 2015 2:35pm Apr 14, 2015 2:35pm
@Hanover

Nope, absolutely right! And the great thing is, that normally more than one reason why a currency is fundamentally weak or strong must ALWAYS be present. For example, reason 1 may be that they have slow growth and the economy is generally weak, which would then set up reason number 2 which would be the central bank looking to lower interest rates. And if it's even worse, that leads on to reason 3, the central bank launching a QE programme.

Definitely the hardest part is the entries and exits. I struggle most with that too. I like using zones, basically simple support and resistance.

As a helpful tip to everyone, and something I didn't always do, but try to find your target area before your entry. Typically, if a pair has made a new recent low, and then has pulled back higher, but there are fundamental reasons it should go lower, then that recent low is your target. That's where the pair SHOULD be because it has reached there before and nothing has fundamentally changed.

If you have your target area first, then there's much more conviction in your trades because you're confident it'll hit, even if there is a pullback and your position is negative at first.

Great that people are getting involved in this thread also!!
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