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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,601
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:08am Mar 30, 2015 10:08am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I meant exit when price is at .xx50 ish because of the logic you were using in your example. ie. it printed .xx50 last time so may print it again. Did you get in long at ~.xx27ish? Price whent their twice and rejected twice; similiar to the range turning points I circled in my last screenshot.
Yes, twice.
  • #9,602
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:10am Mar 30, 2015 10:10am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Yes, twice.
You bought in with twice your usual risk? I admire your confidence, certainly makes me feel better at getting in there.
  • #9,603
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:13am Mar 30, 2015 10:13am
Quoting anima999
{quote} You bought in with twice your usual risk? I admire your confidence, certainly makes me feel better at getting in there.
It could have gone the other way, keep that in mind, this time it worked out, so its a good example.

This level is a fact, thats nothing I could do about. So the trade execution, the risk and the taking profit is completely up to me. If you understand that concept, it definitely will make more sense to you.

Add(1): Thats why 'waiting' is so important.
Add(2): Anyway, there was a third trade ~7h ago, I missed it tbh but if you go back and apply the principles I trades those two longs, you'll see what I mean.
  • #9,604
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:20am Mar 30, 2015 10:20am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} It could have gone the other way, keep that in mind, this time it worked out, so its a good example. This level is a fact, thats nothing I could do about. So the trade execution, the risk and the taking profit is completely up to me. If you understand that concept, it definitely will make more sense to you.
I think we may have crossed wires. I am talking about now... ie did you buy at the price circled in blue and are you still in? I'm just trying to guage your logic as price bounces around - did you buy at XX because it bounced previously and exit at XX because it bounced previously.
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  • #9,605
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:22am Mar 30, 2015 10:22am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I think we may have crossed wires. I am talking about now... ie did you buy at the price circled in blue and are you still in? I'm just trying to guage your logic as price bounces around - did you buy at XX because it bounced previously and exit at XX because it bounced previously. {image}
No, we had 3 rejections and since its close to 6pm here I already got out what I needed, so no, I didnt
  • #9,606
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:23am Mar 30, 2015 10:23am
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision point calendar week 14 for [GBP/JPY]: (01) 203.30/20 (02) 202.80/70 (03) 201.50/40 (04) 199.70/60 (05) 197.50/40 (06) 195.40/30 (07) 193.10/00 (08) 192.70/60 (09) 192.40/30 (10) 189.90/80 (11) 189.10/00 (12) 188.60/50 (13) 187.30/20 (14) 185.50/40 (15) 183.80/70 (16) 183.20/10 (17) 181.20/10 (18) 178.90/80 (19) 178.50/40 (20) 178.10/00 (21) 175.80/70 (22) 175.00/74.90 (23) 174.40/30 (24) 173.10/00 (25) 171.20/10 (26) 169.80/70 (27) 169.00/65.90 (28) 167.00/66.90 (29) 164.80/70 (30) 164.50/40 (31) 163.90/80 {file} {image}
Thank you Ray
  • #9,607
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:24am Mar 30, 2015 10:24am
Quoting Piprader
{quote} Thank you Ray
You're welcome pirate
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  • #9,608
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:32am Mar 30, 2015 10:32am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I think we may have crossed wires. I am talking about now... ie did you buy at the price circled in blue and are you still in? I'm just trying to guage your logic as price bounces around - did you buy at XX because it bounced previously and exit at XX because it bounced previously. {image}
Anyway, its 3, not 4 as you marked. One is invalid. Stick to facts.

Add: Now its 4.
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  • #9,609
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:33am Mar 30, 2015 10:33am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You're welcome pirate {image}
  • #9,610
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:37am Mar 30, 2015 10:37am
U/J:
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  • #9,611
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:42am Mar 30, 2015 10:42am
Quoting FX-Ray
U/J: {image}
That latest candlestick looks so tempting to short.....I'll stick to my cable short from 1.48160 for now.

I swear, if it takes all the way up to friday for the gbp/jpy to break out of this range trading (177.00/176.850~178), I will......probably do nothing and just move on to more profitable areas.

I'm apparently too busy trying to earn money to care about markets not going my way.
  • #9,612
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:42am Mar 30, 2015 10:42am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Neither am I. I've only studied it for about 8 years, but know enough to recognise there are always at least two alternatives. You see, your image suggesting 1,2, 3 etc can be interpreted as a wave 5 completing soon - and this messy correction is wave 4. However, maybe wave 1 has finished already ......... and this is effectively wave 2. A very big difference. Look at the fomc spike, then look at the price movements around it. It forms a diamond shape. Diamond target, taken simply was height of structure, with initial target being height...
He He.....yep, the impulse waves do waves of three really....but....if we don't what the wave count is....we're probably in a wave 4.....old saying.....

yep that target for the cable is on down there a bit....4740..................then 4660 after a good sized run-up
  • #9,613
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:43am Mar 30, 2015 10:43am
Im done for today. No reason to trade anything. Im out. Laters

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  • #9,614
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:45am Mar 30, 2015 10:45am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} That latest candlestick looks so tempting to short.....I'll stick to my cable short from 1.48160 for now. I swear, if it takes all the way up to friday for the gbp/jpy to break out of this range trading (177.00/176.850~178), I will......probably do nothing and just move on to more profitable areas. I'm apparently too busy trying to earn money to care about markets not going my way.
Just why?
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  • #9,615
  • Edited 11:03am Mar 30, 2015 10:50am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Just why? {image}
LOL, it was more of a joke, really. "Standard" (i.e. lagging ) indicators might say that shorting there isn't a bad idea, but I neutral-bullish even in that area for the usd/jpy.

If the market really was that tempting I'd probably be in on it anyway.

I'd rather not catch a falling knife.

And on that note, I wonder what the eur/usd will do......looks to have a small break of 1.08200, but I need a clearer signal.

Update: GBP/JPY rejected at fib. resistance of 177.80. Next support is around 177.30......unless it bounces back up from the halfway mark around 177.60/50, it's back to range trading again, I guess.
  • #9,616
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:57am Mar 30, 2015 10:57am
Outlook for GBPJPY over the short term is a mild bounce to the 178.50 area over the next 3 days. However, overall trend is still down but we will need to spend some time in the 176-178.50 area for the next leg down. I expect to see about 2 weeks of sideways action in this level until the breakdown of 176.00. Short entry of 175.75 with a stop above 178.50. Target 169.00. This is a longer term trade of course. Expect 3 weeks.
  • #9,617
  • Mar 30, 2015 11:04am Mar 30, 2015 11:04am
hey there, the Elliott wavers are reversing at 800 the round number......till then 1140 is up to bat
  • #9,618
  • Mar 30, 2015 11:05am Mar 30, 2015 11:05am
Quoting FX-Ray
Im done for today. No reason to trade anything. Im out. Laters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiCjs0Eh7xo {image}
laters
  • #9,619
  • Mar 30, 2015 11:41am Mar 30, 2015 11:41am
so, no one in Europe or Britain would ever listen to Texas music, huh!....ok....but what about..Lucinda Williams...."car wheels on a gravel road "
  • #9,620
  • Mar 30, 2015 12:55pm Mar 30, 2015 12:55pm
Lookie, lookie here! This is a trifecta in my opinion:
1) 1hr shows 200EMA hit
2) 4hr shows 55EMA hit
3) MurreyMath 2/8 level hit
4) R2 on daily pivot hit

A very good probability that this will reverse from here (178.18) on hopefully down to 175.5. Let's wait and see....
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Lost....
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