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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,541
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:48am Mar 30, 2015 4:48am
Quoting alexpi
This is purely my opinion, but I believe that these quick pumps up are additional attempts to take out retailer bulls on the down-move, continuing from the Friday announcement by Carney that rates will be raised. Many people don't realize that this is old news and the bankers are playing to take out the longs. Even big-money clients will be inclined to believe that this news will lead to bullish moves on the pound, great time to steal money from the less-informed using bait-and-switch strategies I expect a fake-out below 175.54 over the next few...
Did you mean they're trying to take out shorts instead of longs? If the prices are going up, it should be looking for buy stop losses on short positions in order to continue heading south.
Lost....
  • #9,542
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:51am Mar 30, 2015 4:51am
Quoting Mpt
The apparent diamond (comprising fomc spike et al) suggested a downside target below 175. It comes down now to interpretation of this correction - there are two possibilities - it's either entering the final stage down for completion circa 175.3/5/8 - or upon arrival at 175 it breaks down strongly.
Hi MPT,

I must confess what you're saying sounds sensible. I'm tempted with a very small, longer term short looking for 175.xxx.
  • #9,543
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:53am Mar 30, 2015 4:53am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Did you mean they're trying to take out shorts instead of longs? If the prices are going up, it should be looking for buy stop losses on short positions in order to continue heading south.
They want people going long and getting axed on every down-move. It pumps up, people see big blue ERC candles, go in for the "sure" ("They're raising rates, price is moving, I'm missing the move!") long, then it drops down.

Rinse and repeat and you've got classic bait-and-switch trading.

I've just seen this happen so many times (and I've been cut personally in the past) that my gut is telling me that they're doing it here as well.

I'm not speaking so much about them wanting to get you and me, but the multi-million accounts that have their money managed by bankers. This is a way for banks to profit from their own clients. Cutthroat? Yes. Legal? Yes. Dangerous for us even though we're not the main targets? Definitely yes

And again - this is only opinion, price could just rocket up here and hit 179 or even 182.66. Don't make long-term trading decisions based on what I'm saying. I wouldn't!
  • #9,544
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:55am Mar 30, 2015 4:55am
Today and tomorrow are 'flow' days. Such erratic moves are normal. But they are usually part of broader corrections.
  • #9,545
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:57am Mar 30, 2015 4:57am
Quoting anima999
{quote} Hi MPT, I must confess what you're saying sounds sensible. I'm tempted with a very small, longer term short looking for 175.xxx.
I try to be sensible - no conspiracy theories here
  • #9,546
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:10am Mar 30, 2015 5:10am
http://technical-analysis.forexlive....ch-on-20150330
  • #9,547
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:17am Mar 30, 2015 5:17am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I try to be sensible - no conspiracy theories here
I'm not elliot wave expert but it looking quite tidy. Struggling with seeing the correction pattern though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 18 KB
  • #9,548
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:19am Mar 30, 2015 5:19am
Quoting Mpt
http://technical-analysis.forexlive....ch-on-20150330
*gasp* Could it be? That Mpt's real life name is Ryan Littlestone?
  • #9,549
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:20am Mar 30, 2015 5:20am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I try to be sensible - no conspiracy theories here
Your 175 target, is that based on the low in Feb or something else?
  • #9,550
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:39am Mar 30, 2015 5:39am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} *gasp* Could it be? That Mpt's real life name is Ryan Littlestone?
Ah ... NO
  • #9,551
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:41am Mar 30, 2015 5:41am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I'm not elliot wave expert but it looking quite tidy. Struggling with seeing the correction pattern though. {image}
Wave 4 cannot and should not cross wave 2.
Lost....
  • #9,552
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:50am Mar 30, 2015 5:50am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Wave 4 cannot and should not cross wave 2.
My mistake. Back to the drawing board.
I was slightly scepticle because wave 3 didn't look long enough. Maybe something like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 18 KB


Its not as pretty. In fact I'm probably looking for something that isn't there. Just my idle ramblings.
  • #9,553
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:51am Mar 30, 2015 5:51am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I'm not elliot wave expert but it looking quite tidy. Struggling with seeing the correction pattern though. {image}

Neither am I. I've only studied it for about 8 years, but know enough to recognise there are always at least two alternatives. You see, your image suggesting 1,2, 3 etc can be interpreted as a wave 5 completing soon - and this messy correction is wave 4.

However, maybe wave 1 has finished already ......... and this is effectively wave 2. A very big difference.

Look at the fomc spike, then look at the price movements around it. It forms a diamond shape. Diamond target, taken simply was height of structure, with initial target being height applied to breakout and retest which would probably be around 178.5/7. I'll let you suggest a target based on that very simple premise.
  • #9,554
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:55am Mar 30, 2015 5:55am
Quoting anima999
{quote} My mistake. Back to the drawing board. I was slightly scepticle because wave 3 didn't look long enough. Maybe something like this {image} Its not as pretty. In fact I'm probably looking for something that isn't there. Just my idle ramblings.
That's looks better. I had the same count until we had that senseless spike last Friday. However, I think wave 5 is still intact going into 175.5 but I maybe wrong. In any case, this is forming the right half of a butterfly pattern.

Calling Schickeria and Infinitus (the EW experts).......
Lost....
  • #9,555
  • Mar 30, 2015 5:56am Mar 30, 2015 5:56am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Neither am I. I've only studied it for about 8 years, but know enough to recognise there are always at least two alternatives. You see, your image suggesting 1,2, 3 etc can be interpreted as a wave 5 completing soon - and this messy correction is wave 4. However, maybe wave 1 has finished already ......... and this is effectively wave 2. A very big difference. Look at the fomc spike, then look at the price movements around it. It forms a diamond shape. Diamond target, taken simply was height of structure, with initial target being height...
I must admit I hadn't seen this one until you mentioned it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 27 KB


I'll have a look at the diamond you mention, thanks for the stear.
  • #9,556
  • Mar 30, 2015 6:03am Mar 30, 2015 6:03am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} It's really messy. This PA today and last Friday doesn't give any clear indication if you're using PP trading/analysis. It's really ugly and dangerous, like one of my ex-girlfriends.
  • #9,557
  • Mar 30, 2015 6:03am Mar 30, 2015 6:03am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I must admit I hadn't seen this one until you mentioned it. {image} I'll have a look at the diamond you mention, thanks for the stear.
That's what you always look for. Forget applying complex wave counts etc, just look at the prevailing direction, then try to identify anything that MIGHT suggest a certain price structure. You won't always be right, but it helps to remove some of the uncertainty. And just as in this attempt to identify a wave count, you at least have an idea as to where the limits may be. Here you have two options - complete soon, or below 175 it probably continues down
  • #9,558
  • Mar 30, 2015 7:23am Mar 30, 2015 7:23am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Neither am I. I've only studied it for about 8 years, but know enough to recognise there are always at least two alternatives. You see, your image suggesting 1,2, 3 etc can be interpreted as a wave 5 completing soon - and this messy correction is wave 4. However, maybe wave 1 has finished already ......... and this is effectively wave 2. A very big difference. Look at the fomc spike, then look at the price movements around it. It forms a diamond shape. Diamond target, taken simply was height of structure, with initial target being height...
Like this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 12 KB
  • #9,559
  • Mar 30, 2015 7:30am Mar 30, 2015 7:30am
[quote=forexalien;8169357]GJ I don't see any momentum behind this short burst long. H4 range would be 177 -179 area week , daily , H4 are all short yet, H1 making an attempt long, but will not travel far, unless news comes out................. Alien's take............. {image}[/quote

Holding at this time.....................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9,560
  • Mar 30, 2015 7:30am Mar 30, 2015 7:30am
Quoting anima999
{quote} Like this? {image}
Yes
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