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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,521
  • Edited Mar 30, 2015 2:15am Mar 29, 2015 11:48pm | Edited Mar 30, 2015 2:15am
You're the lone warrior tonight Vermillion

Good morning

Edit: Just read your rhetoric. Very spot on, love it!

Edit2: Added a final add-on to short from Friday. Gonna wait and move SL according to market. Unless of course I get stopped out, in which case I'm out for the day
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  • #9,522
  • Edited 10:41am Mar 30, 2015 1:56am | Edited 10:41am
Putin's Economic Team Plays Houdini

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...-plays-houdini

Best,
D.P.

Caution ! It is a brend new (very old) tactics. Do not forget, they have already torn our economics into pieces.
Hunting High and Low
  • #9,523
  • Mar 30, 2015 2:36am Mar 30, 2015 2:36am
It's so quiet here today

#songoftheday

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  • #9,524
  • Mar 30, 2015 3:40am Mar 30, 2015 3:40am
Morning team,

Very quiet this morning. In lieu of Rays levels anyone got any signaificant price points of thier own?
  • #9,525
  • Mar 30, 2015 3:44am Mar 30, 2015 3:44am
Errm
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Missed the bull run so waiting for the bear pull back before buying.
  • #9,526
  • Mar 30, 2015 3:46am Mar 30, 2015 3:46am
Something weird happened. Stopped out of my TL at 176.950 following break of 177; Price decided to go up rapidly for no reason.

Still profited, but this wasn't a nice surprise considering I just woke up.

My profits....
  • #9,527
  • Mar 30, 2015 3:55am Mar 30, 2015 3:55am
Quoting anima999
Errm {image} Missed the bull run so waiting for the bear pull back before buying.
Unless this turns out to be a nice level to short from that is... I'll decide around 177.5
  • #9,528
  • Mar 30, 2015 3:57am Mar 30, 2015 3:57am
Quoting Vermillion
Something weird happened. Stopped out of my TL at 176.950 following break of 177; Price decided to go up rapidly for no reason. Still profited, but this wasn't a nice surprise considering I just woke up. My profits....
Update: Got a small short in at 177.930...looks like it's working out for now.

Does anyone know why the euro and pound sterling decided to get a rise around 2 hours ago?The only thing I have is the Swiss KOF economic (unlikely, since impact onf eur/chf is minor), and the Spanish CPI....doubt it though.
This isn't a good surprise to get when you've just woken up. I was expecting range trading or further movement down, bu the geppy never ceases to amaze me.

Updated 2: Moved SL for short to BE.
  • #9,529
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:05am Mar 30, 2015 4:05am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Update: Got a small short in at 177.930...looks like it's working out for now. Does anyone know why the euro and pound sterling decided to get a rise around 2 hours ago?The only thing I have is the Swiss KOF economic (unlikely, since impact onf eur/chf is minor), and the Spanish CPI....doubt it though. This isn't a good surprise to get when you've just woken up. I was expecting range trading or further movement down, bu the geppy never ceases to amaze me. Updated 2: Moved SL for short to BE.
Parlimant is disolved today so maybe confidence in sterling is returning now the idiot politicians are out of the picture.
  • #9,530
  • Edited 4:17am Mar 30, 2015 4:06am | Edited 4:17am
Quoting anima999
{quote} Parlimant is disolved today so maybe confidence in sterling is returning now the idiot politicians are out of the picture.
Not just that. I just checked stocks as well. I think might be S&P500, which got a good bounce around 2 hours ago. I think Nikkei also fell. Could also be Greece, but I've got nothing specific.

Stocks Still doesn't explain exactly why the bounce is 2 hours ago, however. Probably going to watch how things play out for now if my short gets stopped at BE.

Update: Shorts got stopped at BE. Going to see how things play out.

I don't like this rise on the 15min. chart; it went up too quickly, with barely a pause at resistances, but we've no clear impact news to drive it. Very suspicious.

Update 2: Retried a short at 177.800, manual soft SL, but with a just-in-case hard SL at 178.290.
  • #9,531
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:20am Mar 30, 2015 4:20am
One thing I learned to do is to ignore any news. It's probably trying to fulfill the 178.10 level (R2 daily resistance). So far, the M4 resistance has been crossed but still holding this advance.

Anyway, I'm long until 178.10/18 and will reverse and short at that level.
Lost....
  • #9,532
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:23am Mar 30, 2015 4:23am
Quoting gespiri
One thing I learned to do is to ignore any news. It's probably trying to fulfill the 178.10 level (R2 daily resistance). So far, the M4 resistance has been crossed but still holding this advance. Anyway, I'm long until 178.10/18 and will reverse and short at that level.
Good luck. I'm holding a short from 177.800, but it's mostly based on intuitive price action for this short. I don't like these whiplashes, seeing as how it makes it hard for people to know when to buy low and sell high at the right moment.
  • #9,533
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:31am Mar 30, 2015 4:31am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Update: Got a small short in at 177.930...looks like it's working out for now. Does anyone know why the euro and pound sterling decided to get a rise around 2 hours ago?The only thing I have is the Swiss KOF economic (unlikely, since impact onf eur/chf is minor), and the Spanish CPI....doubt it though. This isn't a good surprise to get when you've just woken up. I was expecting range trading or further movement down, bu the geppy never ceases to amaze me. Updated 2: Moved SL for short to BE.
I think pure technical S/R is in play here. Eur and gbp will fluctuate around 100 pips for today another reason is that its monday so i dont expect they will go down any further but up and hit 0930 for eur and gbp will hit 4920 when cable hit that spot i will put a short on geppyP/s if they dont hit that then prolly could be this week
  • #9,534
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:37am Mar 30, 2015 4:37am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} I think pure technical S/R is in play here. Eur and gbp will fluctuate around 100 pips for today another reason is that its monday so i dont expect they will go down any further but up and hit 0930 for eur and gbp will hit 4920 when cable hit that spot i will put a short on geppy
Mondays often don't have big movements, but that's not necessarily the case, especially when you get wacky movements like this. I'm more comfortable with keeping low liquidity Monday in moment as a memo (i.e. something to note), but not as an indicator for trading.

As for pure technical S/R, it could just be that we're having trouble between major power players (i.e.financial institutions), who are currently vying to make the price go in a particular direction, but giving respect to the usual S/R. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it IS about S/R, but this movement isn't really the usual technicals, and I feel that someone (or some people) are driving this spike. Whether they're a flock of retail traders or hedge funds, I don't know.
  • #9,535
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:37am Mar 30, 2015 4:37am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Good luck. I'm holding a short from 177.800, but it's mostly based on intuitive price action for this short. I don't like these whiplashes, seeing as how it makes it hard for people to know when to buy low and sell high at the right moment.
It's really messy. This PA today and last Friday doesn't give any clear indication if you're using PP trading/analysis. It's really ugly and dangerous, like one of my ex-girlfriends.
Lost....
  • #9,536
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:37am Mar 30, 2015 4:37am
This is purely my opinion, but I believe that these quick pumps up are additional attempts to take out retailer bulls on the down-move, continuing from the Friday announcement by Carney that rates will be raised. Many people don't realize that this is old news and the bankers are playing to take out the longs. Even big-money clients will be inclined to believe that this news will lead to bullish moves on the pound, great time to steal money from the less-informed using bait-and-switch strategies

I expect a fake-out below 175.54 over the next few weeks, followed by a strong move up, probably will coincide with the general election in UK. Of course this is not set in stone, purely opinion, as I said above.

If I had the money and the influence this is how I would play it.
  • #9,537
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:38am Mar 30, 2015 4:38am
The apparent diamond (comprising fomc spike et al) suggested a downside target below 175.

It comes down now to interpretation of this correction - there are two possibilities - it's either entering the final stage down for completion circa 175.3/5/8 - or upon arrival at 175 it breaks down strongly.
  • #9,538
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:40am Mar 30, 2015 4:40am
Quoting alexpi
This is purely my opinion, but I believe that these quick pumps up are additional attempts to take out retailer bulls on the down-move, continuing from the Friday announcement by Carney that rates will be raised. Many people don't realize that this is old news and the bankers are playing to take out the longs
It could be, my friend; it could be. and that fits nicely with my recent post:

Quoting Vermillion
{quote} .... it could just be that we're having trouble between major power players (i.e.financial institutions), who are currently vying to make the price go in a particular direction, but giving respect to the usual S/R. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it IS about S/R, but this movement isn't really the usual technicals, and I feel that someone (or some people) are driving this spike. Whether they're a flock of retail traders or hedge funds, I don't know.
Also, we'e getting closer and closer to what I call "Mayday" (i.e. the U.K. general election of 2015 in May, which could determine the strength of the pound sterling just based on which party wins by how much). It's going to be wild for the geppy starting in April.
  • #9,539
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:41am Mar 30, 2015 4:41am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Mondays often on't have big movements, but that's not necessarily the case, especially when you get wacky movements like this. I'm more comfortable with keeping low liquidity Monday in moment as a memo (i.e. something to note), but not as an indicator for trading. As for pure technical S/R, it could just be that we're having trouble between major power players (i.e.financial institutions), who are currently vying to make the price go in a particular direction, but giving respect to the usual S/R. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it...
Yeah could be some manipulation going on. The price is moving too wildly today
  • #9,540
  • Mar 30, 2015 4:47am Mar 30, 2015 4:47am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Update 2: Retried a short at 177.800, manual soft SL, but with a just-in-case hard SL at 178.290.
10 pips of profit locked, current unrealized profit at almost 40 pips. Houston, we have no problem...for now.

Quoting Mpt
The apparent diamond (comprising fomc spike et al) suggested a downside target below 175. It comes down now to interpretation of this correction - there are two possibilities - it's either entering the final stage down for completion circa 175.3/5/8 - or upon arrival at 175 it breaks down strongly.
glad to see you again, Mpt. And as usual, I find my analysis in agreement with you-smart money seems to point towards an interesting reaction at 175, and all these spikes have failed to really even break out of the intraday downward trend, let alone the weekly.
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