Trading is as simple as ABCD

Conitnued:

Look at this trend, EURUSD dayly.
3500 pips bear trend in 1 year.

IMAGINE: on March 2014, you started entering on the 1 minute, small positions everyday, trailing the DAYLY 50 MA, but you would enter those mini positions ONLY if the dayly Heiken was red.
There´s roughly 90 red Dayly Heiken bars since then.
Average 3 positions a day...180 open trades...and still running...most on profit, remember you are comfortably trailing.
Soooner or later you would be stopped out...with maybe a dozen loosers...and 170 winners....aprox...

The average stop distance is between 100 to 400...that´s your R size per position, calculated when you enter.
Some positions will have a 10 R winning and more , others a 2...a few will be loosers.
Average R: 5...roughly...
Multiply 180 * 5= 900 R.....!!!!!!!!!!!! (That´s R, not pips)
If your average R is 200 pips...
THEN:900*200= 180000 pips on that pair in a year...accumulated, stress free...
Diversify, I trade only 7, non correlated pairs.

OK, I trade OANDA (not specially my friends), so I can adjust my position size to my desired R...no fixed lots...
So this is what I will attempt, besides running the minute system...which I think is awsome...by the way, thanks to everyone in this thread...your indies templates and ideas..
Have a nice weekend.

A quick indicator I knocked up for some backtesting.

It only colors the CCI histogram if the MA is trending in the correct direction.

Perhaps it will be of use to someone else too.

Please note: compiled but untested so quite possibly has some bugs.

And 'cause of just .ex4 no chance to look it up.

I'm afraid I rarely release my source code these days.
Take from it what you will.

Hi Cuchuflito

You are spot on with your thoughts here about adding whenever the 1 minute turns in the direction of the higher timeframe trend say The daily on EURUSD...

The way to do it is very simple and I'm sure could be coded by one of the guys here.

Remember that price can only go up or down. So if the EURUSD is trending down strongly then all you have to do is every time the 100lwma on the 1 minute turns red take the next 2 CCI sell signals get to BE within say 5 to 10 pips then see what sticks and hold for as long as you can. Imagine how many positions you would have on by now if you'd done that since EURUSD has been trending down??? Beggers belief to be honest...

WE should look at top trenders on daily charts as below , looks like EUR pairs are being sold hard...Then whenever the 100lwma turns down on those pairs take first 2 cci signals 10 pip stops max. Move to BE quickly and see what sticks..If we had an EA that did just that every time the 100lwma turns red we could just leave it running all day...

have a look at this EURUSD chart the TTindy is set to Daily and shows EUR pairs are down trending down hard, also notice the daily CCI has just signalled a sell too so awesome time to start selling as described above...Have a look at some of the other CCI signals weren't they good times to start adding sell trades on 1 minute charts???



That alone would be an awesome strategy , wait for a daily chart(strong trender best) signals the end of a pullback on its CCI then everytime the 1 minute 100lwma turns down sell the first 2 CCI signals. Only worth taking the first two because as we all know price moves in waves and 9 times out of 10 will wave back and take us out at BE so only worth trading first two CCI signals after every turn...

Could be done on any timeframe, wait for a CCI signal on say an hrly chart then drop down to 1 min and take every 100lwma turn in the direction of the CCI signal...............We could be entering with 10 pip stops and low risk into hrly runs...great RR's

looks like to me the colours are wrong way around.if a signal is given in the current trend you really want the cci coloured red or green not grey

Sorry, for some reason I missed this reply.

The code you posted simply creates a buy/sell stop as soon as you activate it, regardless of any CCI signals/candle colours, then it trails according to the previous bar's high (for a buy stop, it moves it down if the previous bar's high + the specified number of pips is lower than the current stop order price, opposite for sell stop). Therefore the actual decision to set up a stop order in the first place is still for the trader to make.

I am not as optimistic as you are about the possibility of coding this strategy entirely, and it being profitable. I think that this strategy (like pretty much all strategies) requires some human thought and input, which would probably be very difficult, if not impossible, to code. Perhaps you underestimate the amount of skill/experience/knowledge that you bring to the table when you trade, Clive .

However, having said that, I would be willing to have a go at fully automating the strategy, and would be happy to be proven wrong. Let me give you an idea of what that would require.

Some of the rules of this strategy are fairly simple to code. For example:

1. CCI two bars ago was oversold (<-100).
2. CCI one bar ago was greater than CCI two bar ago.
3. The current bar makes a higher high than the previous bar by 2 pips.
4. Move stop loss to break even once in 3 pips of profit.

Some things are a little more complicated, but could be done. For example:

1. Find the top trender on the TTIndy, and trade this currency.

Other things would need to be clarified. For example, the exit could be very complicated or simple depending on how it's done. Something like trailing at the lowest low of the previous 2 bars would be simple, where as something a little less computationally straight forward such as "exit when price starts to consolidate" would be much more difficult to code, without specific rules as to what that would look like.

If you have a list of clear rules that you would like to be coded, I would be happy to take a look, give some feedback as to what is codeable and what is difficult or impossible to code, and ultimately have a go at coding. If I were to create it first in MT5, as a test of concept, it could be done fairly quickly.

One last thing I can think of, is that if it looks at the TTIndy to see which is the strongest trender at a particular time, I think that it would only be possible to test it in real time. I don't think back-testing would be possible in this case in MetaTrader, because it only allows for the testing of one currency at a time. Not 100% sure on that, but that is my understanding. On the other hand, back-testing a single currency pair based purely on the strength of the gradient would be possible, because there is no need to refer to what other currencies are doing.

Hopefully that was clear and useful, but feel free to ask if it wasn't!

Theres been a lot of talk on here at times of trading higher timeframe moves off of my 1 minute entry system, the obvious advantage of such a method is the very low risk say 10 to 20 pips entering on the 1 minute in the direction of the higher timeframe trend and then we get huge winners good RRs

Well i'm not a great believer in looking up to higher timerframes as you all know, but if I was then I'd probably look for CCI signals from those higher timeframes and trade them on the 1 minute chart by taking the first 2 CCI signals after the 100lwma has turned the same way.

Pictures speak a thousand words so heres what I'm talking about, have a look at these 2 charts...



Now lets have a look at the same 1 hr signal and the 1 minute chart...



Wait for the 100 to go red then just take the first 2 CCI signals under the 100lwma, but in fact the first 4 are all good to go...

Can be done on any timeframe just find a strong trender wait for the CCI signal against the trend, eg Oversold in an uptrend, overbought in a down trend. Then drop down to 1 min chart and when the 100lwma turns the same way as your CCI signals take the first 2 CCI signals



Hold until you've had your fill....or when 100lwma turns up again..

You see price can only go up or down so if you want to sell an hrly chart, wait for the CCI or until the 1 minute 100lwma turns down...

Hello devontrader,

The indicator is coded like this:

It checks the trend according to clivepackham's rules for 2015, namely the gradient of the 100 LWMA measured over the last 15 bars.

If there is an uptrend of >30, then we are interested in seeing a CCI below -100 followed by a shorter bar. Or to put it another way, during uptrends we are focused on the negative (red) CCI values.

Conversely, if there is a downtrend of >30, then we are interested in seeing a CCI above +100 followed by a shorter bar. Or to put it another way, during downtrends we are focused on the positive (green) CCI values.

Any time we shouldn't be looking for entries (because there is no trend or an opposite trend) we will see gray.

So using my earlier screenshot, potential entries would be like so:

(Please do let me know if this is not correct - I'm a weekend browser so I haven't read the entire thread)

You are correct. During backtests, you can access the data of other symbols but you can only trade the symbol under test.
There are cumbersome ways around this by creating pseudo portfolio backtesting but it isn't straightforward

exactly why I coded the indicator I posted above

From what little (very little) I understand of this system, it really shouldn't matter what trend rank a symbol has.
If the top 5 are trending 27,23,18,10,4 then you probably won't trade any.
If the top 5 are trending 110,97,84,53,38 then you could trade all 5 if the other ducks line up.

i dont think its right !!!The trend is up and your trading below 0 on cci which woukd be a red cci.....that is counter trendingif the trend is up you want green coloured cci so you are trading long with the trendif the trend is down you want the cci coloured red so your short with the down trend

Hello devontrader,

Please take a look at what I have marked up here on clivepackham's recent screenshot. As you can see, it is a downtrend with entries taken from green CCI
(or more precisely, trading weakness on the green which signals an impending resumption of the dominant trend):

So Clive, you realy want us to sell after this position? (orange line)
H1

M1


I don't realy understand you. When I see H1 I would never consider a sell here.

By the way, the arrows are created by my indicator which visualy shows honestknaves indicator.

Hi Clive
I´m new here, old trader, but I can spot someone like you, who knows what they are doing, right away....

-The idea is being applied in the milipede forum...and it seems to work very very well for them.
-The problem they have, is that they mostly don´t have a well defined entry strategy...

-BUT: one needs to have the patience to have sometimes, 10, maybe 20 positions at BE, in the first stages, dissapear overnight...
-They call them "soldiers", the ones that survive, they not only win the battle, they win the war..
-People end up with dozens and dozens of fat winning positions ...still running.

If you can automate it, you could save yourself tons of screen time.(I´m in to manual trading.)

The idea of specially taking the first two signals is also wise...(fits with a classical EW beginning of wave 3).

Check this guy I found a while ago...obviously a top pro...pretty arogant...he won´t share his indies...for no money...
BUT: his lessons for any trader are some of the best I read....can only recommend it to every trader.
AND, in one of his systems, he does exactly that, takes the first signal after the breakout, with enormous success on the 1 minute.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post3528310

I still didn´t look at your 1 H examples, will do today...

Basically one can run both systems, a long time and a short time...lot´s of work ...but as susal, no free lunch in FOREX...
Have a wonderfull weekend.

A 3-color TrendMA indicator (showing no trend, trending up, trending down).

Defaults are the same as TrendCCI... 100 LWMA averaged over the last 15 bars. To qualify as a trend, it needs to be > 30.

Again, compiled but untested.

maybe it could be programmed to place a arrow above price as a signal.to enter....look back in this forum that clive posted an indicator i gave him.called super indicator v2 and maybe you.coukd adjust the coding

cuchuflito - yes I've read that Crucial Point stuff before. It's very interesting and makes a lot of sense.

I liked his idea of drawing open prices on several time frames on the chart. Being a fat lazy bastard I looked in my archives for an indi which would do that and auto update but didn't find one.

His idea of trading the first pullback at an MA is as old as the hills but has generally stood the test of time.

No idea what MA's he was using - I suppose if we had data back to 2010 when he posted his m1 charts if would be reasonably easy to work it out.

Hi Godsclown

No I would never suggest selling that hrly CCI sell signal and I think you know why if you remember the core strategy behind everything I do????

We only sell tops of waves in a downtrend and buy bottoms of waves in uptrends, our wave bottoms and tops are identified by our CCI going overbought(+100) for a wave top and oversold for our wave bottoms.

Now ask yourself is that hrly CCI signal you're referring to a wave top in a hrly down trend???? I think not my friend....and its certainly not a LH is it ???

Not what we have to do is always obey market structure and buy HL's or DB's and sell LH's and DT's no matter what timeframe we look at then drop down to the 1 min and do the same thing.

I find its best to reference the CCI signal you want to sell or buy with the previous one and check what it is in reference to the previous signal, was it higher or lower??

heres what I mean in a chart...I'm gonna use a 1 minute chart because theres so many to use for examples , I did look for a good HRly signal but struggled to find one, thats why I trade the 1 minute charts they are always setting up...everyday..



Step by step lets look at each CCI signal to see if they qualify or not by reference against the last CCI signal. I've labelled the signals from left to right 1 to 6..

Signal 1 is a good one as price has crossed over the 100lwma and come back to retest and its level to last CCI signal.

Now Signal 2 is higher than signal 1 so its a HL and therefore tradable , it also takes support off two of our key levels , a 50 level plus previous resistance 1.8950 .

Signal 3 is again higher than signal 2 so a HL and qualifies.

Signal 4 is level with signal 3 so its a double bottom so therefore qualifies as a tradable signal. However theres a couple of reasons to not take this signal. 1) its the 4th signal in the move so should we even be considering it? 2) Its preceded by a failed drive up which doesn't take out the previous high. My view is that we regularly have consolidation moves like this before the trend resumes and carries on up higher as in this example. However if you're a cautious trader don't take any signals in the consolidation area and wait for the breakout of the top and the retest like signal 6.

Signal 5 , now this is a contentious signal to take. We could take the view its a double bottom or rather a triple bottom where theres been support previously and therefore tradable or we could say its got a failed drive in front of it and its slightly lower than the previous signal 4. Its also dropped below the 100lwma...

All in all I'd say its not a good signal its also the 5th signal so again should we even be considering it??? However it works and works rather well too BUT THAT DOESN'T MAKE IT A GOOD SIGNAL, in fact ITS THE EXCEPTION THAT PROVES THE RULE....

Signal 6, again looking back to signal 5 its a HL proceeded by a HH so perfectly tradable as the trend has now resumed after a small consolidation...

Look also at this chart and see how the drives up when the CCI goes over bought (+100) can be used to reference the previous drive up to establish if our trend is still in full flow...each following drive should be higher than the previous one eg a HH.

I'm constantly looking from one CCI signal to the next as it gives you an immediate take on the market structure in place and whether the CCI signal you're contemplating is worth trading. Remember also my entry technique is to place pending orders below/above the CCI signal candle and quite often it won't be hit. I immediately become concerned if that happens and analyse the next signal closely before taking it...

Heres my entry technique for those who need a reminder. Its a previous chart I've used but shows my entry technique very clearly. Once you've decided its a CCI signal you want to trade eg it fits with above analysis , then look for the CCI to signal and wait for the first green candle back with the trend then place/drag pending order 2 pips above that green candle....




Remember the very basic concept of my strategy is to buy wave bottoms in an uptrend and sell wave tops in a downtrend BUT NEVER the other way round....

No Jason, he's got it right....

I sell overbought CCI's in a strong downtrend and buy oversold CCI's in a strong uptrend... Basically selling peaks in downtrends buying dips in uptrends..

The CCI gives us our tops and bottoms of waves....

Signal 5 , now this is a contentious signal to take. We could take the view its a double bottom or rather a triple bottom where theres been support previously and therefore tradable or we could say its got a failed drive in front of it and its slightly lower than the previous signal 4. Its also dropped below the 100lwma... All in all I'd say its not a good signal its also the 5th signal so again should we even be considering it??? However it works and works rather well too BUT THAT DOESN'T MAKE IT A GOOD SIGNAL, in fact ITS THE EXCEPTION THAT PROVES THE RULE...

Interesting Clive
In one post you laid the whole system down, for everyone to see..

The only thing I would add to signal 5, is the stop run before it takes off..
Notice signal 4, probably triggered other systems signals, even created a small fractal, hit it, only to come down right away, to hit the stops before resuming.
Big Boys love that, first induce the move, trigger entries, come back, wipe stops, and fly away with the retailer meat in their pockets.

Just my two cents...