Diversified Trend Trading Approach

Fred

Thanks so much for this. I am going to print it out and staple it to the wall so I don't attempt to change my mind and stick with it. Thanks so much for the effort.

Muchas gracias senor :-)

thanks mate

Hi C, do you have any trades entered during this week that you can show us? Just want to see the method in action so i know i'm on the right track. Can pm me if you prefer. Thanks

Hi G

I will shortly be posting the Weekly Outlook charts from the entire portfolio. When you drill into charts you will be able to see which trades are live and from when, by referring to the recap to see the status of predictives (thin dotted line when trading as opposed to thick dashed line) and their colour which indicates timeframe and whether or not an inclined hashed line is superimposed over SDC's that mean the trade is live etc. I will also post details of all current open trades and their valuation which gives the entry price, timeframe and date and time of entry.

Use the weekly outlook as a way to try and mimic what I am doing. This way, you should be able to progressively start plotting with a similar thought process that I undertake. If there are any queries on the why's just refer to the post number and the timeframe with the Q's and I should be able to address them.

Bear with me as it is a bit hectic around here at the moment.

C

Weekly Outlook

Well here we are again. Another week over. Not much happening on the trend front with the portfolio last week. All quiet on the Western Front.... :-)

The following Weekly Outlook is for the EDTT approach. Remember the recap dealt with the EDTTI approach which is the same technique as the EDTT but restricts the trades to those in the direction of the Primary Trend. So don't take any notice of those Predictive Entries that are counter-trend in nature.

As per last week, given that you should now be getting the hang of things, these charts are for you to interpret yourselves. You will be able to see however if I am in a trade or not and where my PE's are if you want to try and mimic this technique.

I have also included below details of all current open trades so you should be able to piece it all together with this info. If you have any queries however just ask. For reference purposes, please refer to the Post number and the timeframe to which your query relates.



But as always, the necessary music to reflect on as you peruse the charts. This time from those who do it so well....the Celts. :-)




C

Weekly Outlook continued....

ASX


AUDCAD

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AUDJPY

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AUDUSD

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CADJPY

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DAX

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More to come.....

C

Weekly Outlook continued....

DJI


EURAUD


EURCAD


EURJPY


EURUSD


FTSE


More to come.....

C

Weekly Outlook continued....

GBPSGD

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GBPUSD

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Nikkei

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NZDCAD

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NZDJPY

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NZDUSD

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More to come.....

C

Weekly Outlook continued....

USDCAD

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USDCHF

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USDJPY

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USDSGD

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XAGUSD (Spot Silver)

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XAUUSD (Spot Gold)

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Well that's it for the week ahead guys. Here is hoping that those trends pick up a bit of steam...

All the best and have a great weekend.

C

Very interesting, you are using daily to detect the trend, and using 1H to get into the market, about news, do you close trade before the new release? have a nice weekend

Hi lazyegg :-)

The "using D1 to detect the trend and H1 to execute trade management" was the old DTT way (from Posts 1-260). While a successful technique in itself in applying the SDC to a single time-frame, we have moved on now following testing with the EDTT1 that is a supercharged variant that trades on multiple timeframes and is fully described in the recap.

Regarding news events, if I am in a trade already, I simply ignore them. In fact despite my earlier ideas here about announcements. , simply turn off news and ignore the lot of them whether in a trade or not. Trends are identified and managed on their own distinct timeframe provided we are trading in the direction of he primary trend described by the highest available timeframe.

The rationale is as follows. This EDTT1 approach effectively makes sure you are trading in the direction of the primary trend which is secular in nature (mostly following the monthly trend). I have found this trend to be driven by the relative economic state of the currency pairs and other instruments which is a composite of economic announcements over a long term basis. Singular economic announcements by and large usually are simply accentuating this primary trend direction. Yes, they can reverse but on a probability basis, they more often that not tend to be in the direction of the primary trend. It is these huge spikes in the primary trend direction that we love. Of course we hate the reverse direction and that happens regularly too but with aggressive stop management as this technique applies, you can limit the damage.

Of course their will be the exceptions such as the unpegging of the Swissy recently. How this approach works with those type of devastating price moves (like the Swissy) is that on a single trade you are never risking more that 0.5% trade capital which means that slippage may hit you with say a 1.0% loss (double your expected loss), but in the scheme of things they are mere *small* blips in the equity curve....and you just need to suck it in. Of course if I was trading in the direction of the Swissy announcement, I would be crowing about it as the 'open-ended profit target of this technique gives vitually infinite upside potential......

That's why for the EDTT1, just turn off the news, keep away from predictive threads and turn up the music. :-)

PS I paid a heavy price for closing down the portfolio in late January for 'fear of announcements' as it takes time when you re-establish to get back into the thythm of the market with this technique. Lost opportunities and early whipsaws on attempting to get back into trends cost my my largest drawdown to date of approx 4%. I won't be doing this again and will be plowing on regardless if the stats say so.

PPS Have a great weekend as well mate :-)

This is probably a great method, but I'll never know. I can't wade through it.
It gets lost in a wall of words, more than any thread I've ever seen.

That's a shame :-(

A simple trend following system:

Enter on breaks of a 4 week price range away from the 200 day moving average.
Exit with a win or loss on the next break of the 4 week price range toward the 200 day moving average.

This was Donchian's original system used also by the turtles but without the moving average filter.

I trade using Donchian channels as a systematic trend follower. I also trade ten, twenty, and fifty two week price ranges.

Trend following systems are among the most simple and elegant.

-Adrian

Nice technique ArbitragAcid. What are your drawdowns like? :-)

Hi C,

One thing that I am not clear about - probably much more, I just do not know it yet. Do you add to positions on any given TF. If so, how do you decide when, or are you adding only via progressive additions at progressively higher TFs determined by your SDCs?

Thanks, AG

Hi AG

The second of your points has nailed it. I don't add to positions on a single timeframe as the process of trading on Multiple timeframes actually is achieving the same result and ensuring a staggered entry in a trend on the same instrument. I explain this in detail here.

Let me know if it still doesn't make sense and we will ferret it out. :-)

Thanks C,

Very clear. Rereading with more focus this time has done the trick. Now it just needs to stick!!

Best, AG

Weekly Outlook

Greetings all.

There are signs that this thread is now past it's use by date so this will be my last Weekly Outlook. At least you can now see the routine process I undertake on a weekly basis and hopefully I have equipped you all wih all the necessaray inside info to allow you to trade this method if you are so inclined.

So into it we go....but before we do, the necessary music to while away the time spent perusing the charts.



ASX

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AUDCAD

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AUDJPY

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AUDUSD

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CADJPY

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DAX

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....more to come.

C

Weekly Outlook continued...

DJI

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EURAUD

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EURCAD

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EURJPY

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EURUSD

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FTSE

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...more to come.

C