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Reflexivity in the USD

  • #41
  • Mar 27, 2015 8:47am Mar 27, 2015 8:47am
In a side note,while this market does nothing ATM I can see why ppl create their own treads and avoid EUR/USD and other places of this site. Too many ppl and their personal politics or just immature fighting back and forth causes those wanting to share ideas lose interest. SMH
  • #42
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:58am Mar 27, 2015 11:58am
Quoting jplazard
I'd figure I would stay up until tommorows close to get this trade down tomorrow going long USD if it presents itself in London. My bias for the Dollar is it could come down a bit here but not to cross below 97.229 which is Tues hi price. That is where I will be looking to buy 3 scenarios present themselves in EUR/USD at the moment which I am watching with great interest to find a nice long in DXY 1) Italian retail sales blowout expectations seeing the EUR rise to the 61.8% level in the chart below before failing going into US open to start shorting...

With the EUR doing exactly what I thought it would do hit that .40 area with a bit of an overshoot now I feel good about a ISD bull next wee but YELLEN needs to give me love on dollar
  • #43
  • Mar 27, 2015 1:20pm Mar 27, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting jplazard
{quote} With the EUR doing exactly what I thought it would do hit that .40 area with a bit of an overshoot now I feel good about a ISD bull next wee but YELLEN needs to give me love on dollar
I have complete faith that Yellen knows what she's doing. Her rhetoric is nothing but banter at the poker table, designed to make certain players play a certain way.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #44
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:52am Mar 28, 2015 11:52am
I'd figure I would stay up until tommorows close to get this trade down tomorrow going long USD if it presents itself in London. My bias for the Dollar is it could come down a bit here but not to cross below 97.229 which is Tues hi price. That is where I will be looking to buy 3 scenarios present themselves in EUR/USD at the moment which I am watching with great interest to find a nice long in DXY 1) Italian retail sales blowout expectations seeing the EUR rise to the 61.8% level in the chart below before failing going into US open to start shorting...
T
UPDATE:
The dollar traded exactly where I though it would on Friday coming down only to test near the last two hours at that pivot point from the pics below. I have to say I was relieved to hear Janet come out this time and state with her own mouth that normalization of rates should take place this year. She left the door open for either a July or Sept hike but here is the key sentence that made me happy to hear.
a significant pickup in incoming readings on core inflation will not be a precondition for me to judge that an initial increase in the federal funds rate would be warranted.

Now of course I was a bit surprised like some of my fellow dollar bull that the dollar did not surge but it could be attributed to the fact that there were only 10 minutes left in the market to enter orders or possibly just not wanting to establish an increasing in sizing going into the weekend. Either way I find it wonderful and reassuring as a dollar bull that the following happened this week:

1) On DXY futures we had an early week hi of 98.55 only to trade off until Thursday (London Session) an bottom out at 96.315 then we closed on Friday at 97.60 which is above 50% of the range for the week. Not to mention on Friday alone we actually closed above the top 25% of this weekly range on an hourly (London Session)\ only to complete that pattern I spoke about and can be seen below to settle lower.

2) We have a DOJI show up on WEEKLY EUR FUTURESchart. This is US session only or regular CME hours that does not include GLOBEX after hours trading. If you notice on the example chart below we had only TWO dojis since 2013-2015. If you look at the first doji in MID APRIL 2013 which saw the following two weeks trade lower to retest old lows within that channel. Now I don't personally use DOJI's for entry exit prices myself but I do understand candlestick patterns. Those who know Doji will realize that its a reversal point in a chart usually but NOT ALWAYS. Another thing to remember about Doji's is when they occur at the bottom of an uptrend range it usually is a bullish sign: examples (https://www.google.com/search?q=CHART+patterns+pinbar&biw=1164&bih=817&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=aNUWVbqDGsqcgwT8uoSIDA&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAQ#tbm=isch&q=Bullish+uptrend+Doji+Patterns)

But when the occur on the high of the range usually its a reversal and not a continuation movement examples (https://www.google.com/search?q=CHAR...+Doji+Patterns)

So this will be a great indication going into SUNDAY/MONDAY trading to get short EUR/USD and EUR futures provided the price action acts sluggish or weak with small burst to the upside only to be met with heavy sells to erase those moves on smaller time frames like M15 M30

3) End of quarter window dressing and rebalancing. CTA's, Hedge funds, pensions, and other major professionals find the last week on the quarter to close out or reduce size in profitable positions for reporting and window dressing for new clients and when that passes like next week we will see money redeployed for a new 1-3 cycle which could see renewed long bias in DXY and shor bias in EUR

4) ON RSI IN DXY FUTURES
*DAILY we are at 50 so not overbought or oversold like we were when dollar was at 100 which had a reading of 80 on RSI WAY OVERBOUGHT
*4hr same story at 50 RSI
SO yes the dollar trade has been crowded as still is but it's not overbought and the flush out that occured last week killed weak hands (late entries) but they will be back.

5) Fundamentals still favor US over EU. Central banks are going in opposite directions in monetary policy and Yellen out of her own mouth said we will normalize this year while QE is just starting in EU. There are some great periphery countries in the EU that don't need QE but the main concerns over there is France and this Greek hangover. Until both inflation picks up there and Greek mess gets solved via exit or new package deal bias is still short short short.

Charts below
  • #45
  • Mar 28, 2015 12:00pm Mar 28, 2015 12:00pm
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  • #46
  • Edited 10:28pm Mar 29, 2015 10:15pm | Edited 10:28pm
Per conversation I had with another trader in EUR/USD thread on Sunday, here are my targets for EUR/USD going into this week and will most likely be a buyer on dollar at US monday open.

Best of luck to all this week
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post8171338

EDIT forgot about this original post over the weekend that shows a DOJI on EUR futures which further leads me to believe we will have a red candle this week on EUR
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8171270
  • #47
  • Mar 29, 2015 10:45pm Mar 29, 2015 10:45pm
Since markets are slow right now I recommend people watch these youtube videos: Professional Traders vs. Retail Traders by Anton kreil. Former GS trader and now trades his own acct while teaching 'proper' trading.

It is by far the best advice you will hear and understand the misconceptions about trading. Also it helped me understand what mistakes most traders make so that I won't fall for the same trap.

If you have listened to these vids already great. If not I highly recommend you watch at minimum one video.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


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  • #48
  • Mar 30, 2015 12:57am Mar 30, 2015 12:57am
Seriously, watch those videos. If you don't get the light-bulb in your head from watching them, give it some time. I remember reading stuff about what he talks about when I first got interested in trading, and I could never really appreciate what risk management really was. I recently watched those videos a couple of months ago and I was able to see what I wasn't able to understand when I first trekked into the markets.

I also like watching the tasty trade guys. (the guys that talk about options) There are some good gems out there, but they are almost drowned out by the massive amount of misinformation.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #49
  • Mar 30, 2015 1:21am Mar 30, 2015 1:21am
I too am a fan of tastytrades as well. I remember when I went to Chicago in 2008 and visted thinkorswims offices(b4 TD bought them out) which was behind behind a mall tucked away in a corner with Tom in the back overlooking the traders and support staff. Great guy and he really knows trading, especially options.
  • #50
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:58pm Mar 30, 2015 10:58pm
Quoting jplazard
Per conversation I had with another trader in EUR/USD thread on Sunday, here are my targets for EUR/USD going into this week and will most likely be a buyer on dollar at US monday open. Best of luck to all this week http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post8171338 EDIT forgot about this original post over the weekend that shows a DOJI on EUR futures which further leads me to believe we will have a red candle this week on EUR http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8171270


I added on US sesssion open per my post above. And given the level I spoke about is now in play 1.0820 EUR FUT WE are now trading at 1.0817. Wait for a 1Hr close below 1.0820 before going heavily short into london. Also that dollar trendline I spoke about HAS BEEN BROKEN the upside potential is going to hammer the EUR either tonight or US tomorrow pending no random announcements.
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  • #51
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:41am Mar 31, 2015 5:41am
Quoting jplazard
Since markets are slow right now I recommend people watch these youtube videos: Professional Traders vs. Retail Traders by Anton kreil. Former GS trader and now trades his own acct while teaching 'proper' trading. It is by far the best advice you will hear and understand the misconceptions about trading. Also it helped me understand what mistakes most traders make so that I won't fall for the same trap. If you have listened to these vids already great. If not I highly recommend you watch at minimum one video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtCtGmDgSss...
I watched some of Anton's stuff, definitely worth the screen time. Here's another place to look
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #52
  • Mar 31, 2015 7:28am Mar 31, 2015 7:28am
Exodus, I will definitely take a look today.
  • #53
  • Mar 31, 2015 7:42am Mar 31, 2015 7:42am
Quoting jplazard
Per conversation I had with another trader in EUR/USD thread on Sunday, here are my targets for EUR/USD going into this week and will most likely be a buyer on dollar at US monday open. Best of luck to all this week http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post8171338 EDIT forgot about this original post over the weekend that shows a DOJI on EUR futures which further leads me to believe we will have a red candle this week on EUR http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8171270

And the general public says markets can't be predicted ahead of time
First target reached now EUR is going to most likely test yesterday's US session Low on Eur Fut at 1.0820 before the move lower. On the US session only chart we still have not filled the gap so the bias is down. Dollar will do similar and test yesterday's US session High 93.365 as long as we have a nice bounce US should continue the move.
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  • #54
  • Mar 31, 2015 8:48am Mar 31, 2015 8:48am
Quoting jplazard
Since markets are slow right now I recommend people watch these youtube videos: Professional Traders vs. Retail Traders by Anton kreil. Former GS trader and now trades his own acct while teaching 'proper' trading. It is by far the best advice you will hear and understand the misconceptions about trading. Also it helped me understand what mistakes most traders make so that I won't fall for the same trap. If you have listened to these vids already great. If not I highly recommend you watch at minimum one video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtCtGmDgSss...
Thanks, will watch!
  • #55
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:16pm Mar 31, 2015 2:16pm
The lack of follow through on PA from the dollar today not finishing up on highs although we do have 1hr left, and the fact pedro pointed out a great ABC completion point to which If I plot that on US session only on EURfut and DXYfut with OVERSOLD RSI on 4h in EUR with my target being hit makes me believe we could see higher price in EUR tonight and tomorrow.
DXY looks like it could come back down to 98.45 which is yesterday US session hi and even possibly yesterdays us session low of 97.95
EUR if it can break todays US session high could see us trade overnight to 1.0820-50 before a continuation lower. Hmmm Looks like I will stay up tonight for ASIA/LONDON and go long EUR futures for a short swing play if the PA takes place here
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  • #56
  • Apr 2, 2015 12:56am Apr 2, 2015 12:56am
good to see you back jplazard!
  • #57
  • Apr 2, 2015 1:44am Apr 2, 2015 1:44am
Quoting jplazard
The lack of follow through on PA from the dollar today not finishing up on highs although we do have 1hr left, and the fact pedro pointed out a great ABC completion point to which If I plot that on US session only on EURfut and DXYfut with OVERSOLD RSI on 4h in EUR with my target being hit makes me believe we could see higher price in EUR tonight and tomorrow. DXY looks like it could come back down to 98.45 which is yesterday US session hi and even possibly yesterdays us session low of 97.95 EUR if it can break todays US session high could see us...

I have to say, this week the symmetry and almost exact wave patterns are playing out almost perfectly this week. Not sure if it's the lighter than average volume or sleep deprivation studying the movements a day or two out on fibs. The levels per my last post have all been reached if you notice USD traded to 97.95 per the image in the last post and SO FAR is holding up.

ON EUR 1.0820-50 level has been reached and I took a quick swing long but now I will go short EUR once 1.0820 fails once more and it rolls over. Best of luck today and if there was a time to get long ahead of NFP tonight and tomorrow would be it given the more advantageous levels to get short EUR and on Dollar. Waiting for confirmation for EUR to trade to 1.0830 maybe even .40 before GOING LONG DOLLARS AGAIN for a EUR continuation lower.
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  • #58
  • Apr 2, 2015 1:46am Apr 2, 2015 1:46am
HelloOZ great to see you as well. It's refreshing to see so many familiar faces here after all these years. I hope your trading is going well and you're killing it.
  • #59
  • Apr 2, 2015 2:12am Apr 2, 2015 2:12am
Here are the levels on dollar that I will start to get long.

First I have two charts of dollar posted. One is CME trading hours which is US session only. So you will notice the dollar closed today at 98.475 obviously right now we are trading lower currently at 98.18 as I speak so that is why I prefer to have two manjor fib points that factor in the US session ABC pattern and 24 hr ABC pattern.

I will gladly dip my toes long at 97.883 but given if it trades there H4 will not be below 30 so that is why I would add on 97.55-50 given that is the KEY 78.6% retrace from the most recent ABC pattern before it moves higher. Even so RSI would be at or sub 30 on 4h which will help with a bounce given its oversold at this point. Even though I am long USD at lower levels and added a bit on Monday if this level holds up I will most likely add more as this will likely be the last basing before dollar moves up to 99.80-100.40 which will complete a large ABC pattern before it comes down to take a breather. That is too far out and I can't possibly do a fib for when it reaches that level at what price it will trade down to just yet.

Eur is overbought on 1H but not on 4H I am waiting for it to find a ceiling within the image in the last post and find heavy resistance before selling for a swing short going into NFP. Key for me though is dollar needs to hold the two levels of 97.883 to 97.50 on a 1H or 4H chart.
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  • #60
  • Apr 2, 2015 2:40am Apr 2, 2015 2:40am
I was just thinking, If the 97.883 level does not hold for the first buy then on EUR FUT It would trade up to Monday's HI of 1.0676 which if plotted against the dollar It exactly at the 97.556-50 78.6%. That is if this red sell box level is broken and EUR trades higher will Dollar find a base at the97.556 and EUR equally should be banging up againt 1.0676 the same time and that would be major OVERBOUGHT for a better sell entry.

I will just sit on my hands and wait for a failure at this level....or wait for eur to trade up to 1.0670-75 to go short.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1427829397


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1427958737
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