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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #9,501
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:15am Mar 27, 2015 11:15am
man this pair is stuck in some serious mud recently.
  • #9,502
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:18am Mar 27, 2015 11:18am
Quoting raiders
man this pair is stuck in some serious mud recently.
Click "news" in FF website, find greek capital controls, check eur/usd and gbp/usd prices. You'll see why. The rise isn't natural; it's just people reacting to rumors (which may or may not be true; we don't know).

Weird thing is, things like capital control, as stated by the news website origin, isn't something you'd like to have leaked or announced prior, so it's really a coin toss to see how prices go right now.'
  • #9,503
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:22am Mar 27, 2015 11:22am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Click "news" in FF website, find greek capital controls, check eur/usd and gbp/usd prices. You'll see why. The rise isn't natural; it's just people reacting to rumors (which may or may not be true; we don't know). Weird thing is, things like capital control, as stated by the news website origin, isn't something you'd like to have leaked or announced prior, so it's really a coin toss to see how prices go right now.'
was just about to ask if anyone had heard anything. thanks
  • #9,504
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:24am Mar 27, 2015 11:24am
I don't know if you follow it but its beginning to look like a bull flag.....
Lost....
  • #9,505
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:31am Mar 27, 2015 11:31am
A lot of food for thought today, it's very rare that you see the market moving so precisely to the tune of news events
  • #9,506
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:32am Mar 27, 2015 11:32am
Quoting alexpi
A lot of food for thought today, it's very rare that you see the market moving so precisely to the tune of news events
manipulation at its finest
  • #9,507
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:34am Mar 27, 2015 11:34am
Scott-
Do you see the bearish butterfly on the 4H? Want to double check on what im seeing
  • #9,508
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:35am Mar 27, 2015 11:35am
Quoting raiders
{quote} manipulation at its finest
Magnificently accomplished
  • #9,509
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:37am Mar 27, 2015 11:37am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Magnificently accomplished
yeah man. these bankers are in s slug fest right now. cant wait to hear the bullshit from yellen in a few hours.

hmmm...we may or may not raise rates sometime in the future but its an option. as is keeping everything as is
  • #9,510
  • Mar 27, 2015 11:46am Mar 27, 2015 11:46am
Capital controls in Greece would be be bad for Europe (i.e. sell euro). Effect on pound sterling would seem initially mixed, but since everyone will flock to the usd dollar haven for currencies, the relative strength of the sterling should actually go down.

Funny thing is, euro & pound are rallying on events that should be negative (euro especially). It could be a pump & dump by financial institutions, or some strange reaction to news.

whatever the case, if it does make new highs, I'm looking to add a decent sized short. Current short positions are still active for now, however.

There's also rumors (unconfirmed) that the initial originator of the greek capital control rumor (a Frenchman) is known to be a polemist, so that pretty much makes him questionable at best. That makes things even more complicated, though, since now no one knows who's right or wrong.

Twitter. Fucking twitter.
  • #9,511
  • Edited 3:27pm Mar 27, 2015 1:15pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Click "news" in FF website, find greek capital controls, check eur/usd and gbp/usd prices. You'll see why. The rise isn't natural; it's just people reacting to rumors (which may or may not be true; we don't know). Weird thing is, things like capital control, as stated by the news website origin, isn't something you'd like to have leaked or announced prior, so it's really a coin toss to see how prices go right now.'
Same news. Holding onto my shorts for the gbp/jpy, despite the bounce from rumors of the Greek capital control.Targets are the same as before, but at this rate, the best I can expect is to hit 176.50 (if that even happens to begin with). It'll take a outspoken Yellen in the upcoming news to prompt further movements down.

Rumors turned out to be nothing but rumors right now, and had negligible impact on the currency overall.

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Actually, scratch that. It wasn't negligible impact. I demand compensation for the rumor screwing up my price action charts with that unusual bounce. It wasted precious hours left in the Friday trading session that could have been used to allow the retest of 175.70.

....or at least I would, if there was anyone to complain to.

To anyone that didn't like Friday's price movement: blame Jean Quatremer, the man who started the Greek capital control rumor and messed up the price movements of Forex. If it weren't for him, we'd probably have had a clean break below 177.10 today. But now, we'll have to wait and see.
  • #9,512
  • Mar 27, 2015 3:35pm Mar 27, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Same news. Holding onto my shorts for the gbp/jpy, despite the bounce from rumors of the Greek capital control.Targets are the same as before, but at this rate, the best I can expect is to hit 176.50 (if that even happens to begin with). It'll take a outspoken Yellen in the upcoming news to prompt further movements down. Rumors turned out to be nothing but rumors right now, and had negligible impact on the currency overall. {image} Actually, scratch that. It wasn't negligible impact. I demand compensation for the rumor screwing up my price...
No worries Vermillion, it was a good week overall, we'll get it next week eventually

Pleasant weekend to everyone
  • #9,513
  • Mar 27, 2015 7:24pm Mar 27, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting forexalien
GJ I don't see any momentum behind this short burst long. H4 range would be 177 -179 area week , daily , H4 are all short yet, H1 making an attempt long, but will not travel far, unless news comes out................. Alien's take............. {image}
The Dragon Lives on...................
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9,514
  • Mar 28, 2015 6:37pm Mar 28, 2015 6:37pm
I think this pair has topped out, and will come down hard for years to come. At least that's how i see USD JPY, and GBP USD isn't exactly peachy and out of the downtrend yet..
  • #9,515
  • Mar 29, 2015 8:38am Mar 29, 2015 8:38am
FX-Ray, this is for you. It refers to the 76.4% fib level for GBP pairs (or google "Practical Fibonacci Methods for Forex Trading). Enjoy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1369981284.
Lost....
  • #9,516
  • Mar 29, 2015 9:42am Mar 29, 2015 9:42am
Quoting Ck87
I think this pair has topped out, and will come down hard for years to come. At least that's how i see USD JPY, and GBP USD isn't exactly peachy and out of the downtrend yet..
I'd agree if it wasn't for Abe's unpredictability.
  • #9,517
  • Edited 12:20pm Mar 29, 2015 11:03am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting Ck87
I think this pair has topped out, and will come down hard for years to come. At least that's how i see USD JPY, and GBP USD isn't exactly peachy and out of the downtrend yet..
Possible, but it's more likely that this is a correction. USD/JPY is only in a correction from a bullish trend from what I can see; it only fell a few hundred pips, which is normal for the USD/JPY considering its past chart movements. We have not invalidated the support region on the daily chart (it was hit when the pair fell to around 118.360, but was immediately rejected). Unless it can go below the support, we may not see even further corrections.

Abe (JPN PM) and Kuroda (BOJ governor) both plan on continuing to devalue the yen throughout 2015, but not at a rapid pace. The pound sterling is probably going to see ups and downs in the coming weeks prior to the U.K. general election, since unlike other elections & events, this one is a bit mixed in its results and is not clear who's going to win (conservatives, liberals, or the more likely case of a mix). As for the US dollar, the greenback is still king, and no one is going to change that for the next bi-annual session unless we get a new game changing event. We may see corrective movements down a couple hundred pips, but I am still bullish in the mid term (months~year). After 2015 is less certain, since Japan may stop its devaluation of its currency, depending on how things turn out.

So for the time being, corrections for sterling pairs is likely, but I don't think the gbp/jpy topped out yet. Japan's still in a worse state than the U.K. right now.

Short the corrections, and buy the bounces. Whether you TP, lock profits, or simply hold onto them is your choice. Just follow the intraday and weekly trend, I say.
  • #9,518
  • Mar 29, 2015 2:56pm Mar 29, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Possible, but it's more likely that this is a correction. USD/JPY is only in a correction from a bullish trend from what I can see; it only fell a few hundred pips, which is normal for the USD/JPY considering its past chart movements. We have not invalidated the support region on the daily chart (it was hit when the pair fell to around 118.360, but was immediately rejected). Unless it can go below the support, we may not see even further corrections. Abe (JPN PM) and Kuroda (BOJ governor) both plan on continuing to devalue the yen throughout...
i found a harmonic Gartley partern forming at weekly of this pair, its CD leg is only half way down left to 172,300. is it correct tho ==' i'm quite new to this pair so.... i'm not too sure
  • #9,519
  • Edited 4:46pm Mar 29, 2015 4:16pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} i found a harmonic Gartley partern forming at weekly of this pair, its CD leg is only half way down left to 172,300. is it correct tho ==' i'm quite new to this pair so.... i'm not too sure
We'll have to break 175.70 first to get a shot at it. But 172.300 might take a while.

If you're new to this pair, I recommend you opt for smaller targets, since the geppy is infamous for its whiplashes and bounces in between supports.

Because greek capital control rumors (unsubstantiated) caused the downward movement to suffer a cockblock at 177.10 right up to the end of the Friday session, when combined with the lack of liquidity on Sundays and Mondays, it is more than possible that the gbp/jpy will go back up a few resistances before coming down.

But I expect 177.10 to be breached within the week. Odds of hitting 175.70 (monthly low) is higher than going back up to test monthly highs. Still, it'll really depend on how the start of the week looks like.

Edit: In my opinion, the reason why a bounce up a few resistances before coming down is possible is because the greek rumors forced the prices to be stuck at the pre-existing range prior to the spread of the rumor (177.10~177.60). Rumor never really yielded anything after the initial rumor (started by a tweet from a Frenchman named Jean Quatremer), so nobody had anything to really speculate in either direction.

This, unfortunately, left the market to end right on a support, and it's rare that a market will just start the initial hour by penetrating a key support that was tested over and over again. And as expected, the day started with a positive gap upwards. Unfortunately for the bears, if it does start on a support, it'll take a hell of a lot more effort to bring it down a bit compared to the bulls. So a bounce back to upper resistances are possible. However it's also possible that the bears just don't give a damn, and just push it down. Or we might get range trading, since neither side was able to prevail on a low liquid Sunday.
  • #9,520
  • Edited 11:12pm Mar 29, 2015 10:44pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} it is more than possible that the gbp/jpy will go back up a few resistances before coming down....However it's also possible that the bears just don't give a damn, and just push it down. Or we might get range trading, since neither side was able to prevail on a low liquid Sunday.
And done. Right on the mark. I guess the bulls just couldn't get steam. Didn't even hit the 2nd fibonacci resistance at 177.80. You have to love the price reaction on the 15min. chart; As soon as we came around 177.740, price just sank like a stone right around to the lower end of the support (~177.150).

All three of my shorts from Friday still remain, and targets are the same as well.

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Let's see current goals for the geppy:

1) gbp/jpy going beyond 177.30 and hitting higher resistances (177.60) - Done
2) gbp/jpy quickly falling from said resistance and back to pivot point area (177.30) - Done
3) gbp/jpy penetrating 177.30 with a clear break - Halfway Done (needs to break 177.10 though) - Done

4) gbp/jpy hitting next support (176.60) - Not yet
5) gbp/jpy hitting the support after that (176 +/- 15 pips) - Not yet
6) gbp/jpy hitting key monthly support (175.70) - Not yet.

Update 1: I may have jinxed myself with one of my previous quotes. If we do break above 177.150 again, it's possible for ranged trading to continue to the next market sessions, during which the gbp/jpy may or may not drop.

Update 2: 177.00 breached; if we continue down, next target should be 176.60/50. If not, and if it goes back above 177.150, expect it to hit pivot point 177.32 before reacting further.
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