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Leftovers at the dinner table, re-testing opening levels

  • #21
  • Mar 17, 2015 2:35am Mar 17, 2015 2:35am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} Hi Andy I dont know if you will find this relevant now I have seen few more posts but lets see.The title sparked my interest with the referral to Re-Testing Opens. Daily chart. Lots of lines, labels etc looks chaotic and makes eyes ache, you are thinking ? I Agree. But once you digest it a little some things might start to speak to you ? {image} OK 1 hr Chart still plenty of lines but maybe some things coming in to view ? {image} Zoom in a bit 5 Min, bit easier to make out whats goin on ? {image} What the hell. 1 Min chart. The lines haven't...

Hey Stu, interesting charts my man. There was a thread a while back started by a Seneca pilot who used key levels in his trading.
I see you have marked significant areas such as daily o/h/l, weekly o/h/l, but also see that you have an awful lot of historical lines.
How long do you leave levels on your chart for? When in your opinion are the 'consumed' or violated and hence can be removed? Surely if they are not removed at some point, the chart will just fill up over time.

Cheers Andy
  • #22
  • Mar 17, 2015 12:06pm Mar 17, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting andys0506
{quote} Hey Stu, interesting charts my man. There was a thread a while back started by a Seneca pilot who used key levels in his trading. I see you have marked significant areas such as daily o/h/l, weekly o/h/l, but also see that you have an awful lot of historical lines. How long do you leave levels on your chart for? When in your opinion are the 'consumed' or violated and hence can be removed? Surely if they are not removed at some point, the chart will just fill up over time. Cheers Andy
Andy Obviously this kind of approach has struck a chord for you and for that reason if you can relate to it, persue it. Yes I have read Seneca Pilot stuff and recommend. Although from memory I think he sticks to just the Daily levels ? Also not sure about the news trades he does either .

I will keep adding levels as I come across them. I do have some levels which are as little as 5 or 6 pips apart but I still hang on to them because if PA is falling right I will know which one to use. That comes down to knowing behaviour of the pair you are trading. I don't ever think they become truly redundant but obviously within a trading session there may be limited times it comes off a level but this will be dictated by how important the market sees it. There are some occasions i have used an old level level many times within a few days. If you look at EU last week a good example is the first return to the April 2003 Low. Even in such a bearish market it clearly still held sentiment, sufficient enough to trade it, and I did .
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Here are examples of application http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post7947847
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post7947926

I like the precision such levels offer and tend to take half off and leave half to roam. Quite often that results in second half stopping at BE but occasionally you get a runner so in that respect is nice for incorporating into a longer term view. Example http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post7947766.
The market has been challenging lately but if you persist you will get runners. When trending useful for finding areas to add also.
I am no Guru Andy just found a small element to work with. The losses are there also as with any approach, it comes down to how you deal with them that is probably more important.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #23
  • Mar 24, 2015 3:52am Mar 24, 2015 3:52am
Quoting andys0506
Thanks Stu, will take a look over your charts. They look interesting. I must say a particular level I have noticed gets revisited regularly is the London Fix at 4pm. Definitely food for thought.
Hi Andy,

This is spot on and you will find that if price breaks away after the London close a very high percentage of the time it revisits the following day or within 2 days. Especially if you get a large spread in the Asian session. Another thing to not that if it breaks away and does not revisit in 3 or more days a lot of the time it signifies a large trend reversal.

I have been trading this way for a long time and once you experience which range bars will retested and which are most likely to break away you have a very good edge in the market.

Range bars can be treated as essentially gaps, so if you do some analysis on Gaps types and keep an eye on dealing times this will help you a great deal. You also need to be aware of large quantity of bank orders coming into the market overbalancing liquidity on one side, causing the spread. retracing to these levels is common as there are normally orders left behind. When banks block up orders a lot of the time they cannot find the liquidity to fill all the orders so they need to wait for the return.

Strong fundamental announcements can cause runway ranges and is not wise to fade these spreads as they can just continue on. Understanding patterns formations at these levels showing reversal formations will give you an edge for the probabilities of re-tracement and give you a very good Risk:Return trades.

Anyway Good luck Andy
  • #24
  • Mar 24, 2015 9:03am Mar 24, 2015 9:03am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Andy, This is spot on and you will find that if price breaks away after the London close a very high percentage of the time it revisits the following day or within 2 days. Especially if you get a large spread in the Asian session. Another thing to not that if it breaks away and does not revisit in 3 or more days a lot of the time it signifies a large trend reversal. I have been trading this way for a long time and once you experience which range bars will retested and which are most likely to break away you have a very good edge in the...
Thanks squawk. I worked out in my head a while back that the reason for these re-tests are due to orders being left behind in the scenarios you mention above (big bank orders). Nice to see I'm not alone in my thinking.

It's also important to note the time of the bars. Not all bars are retested, and it seems that bars at key times such as during UK/US sessions, and key session open and close bars have more significance than bars created during the overnight session for instance. Like any 'system' there are always exceptions, just because 2 bars look the same, doesn't mean they are the same.

This is great fun, I will succeed
  • #25
  • Mar 24, 2015 9:07am Mar 24, 2015 9:07am
And for those of you watching my Trade Explorer, after suffering the massive drawdown last week, I have now implemented a SL - previously I didn't enter SL into the market. Last week showed that bad trades do happen, and we must stop them before they wipe out 50% of your account!

You live and learn. Still demo, when I get this to £4000 (from the original £500) I will go live with £500 - can't wait
  • #26
  • Mar 26, 2015 7:03am Mar 26, 2015 7:03am
Immediate trend appears to be down as we have untested down bars (circled)
I think for now we can target the untested lines marked with a blue tick.
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  • #27
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:38am Mar 26, 2015 9:38am
So far so good, eyeing up 870 now before we then re-assess direction.
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  • #28
  • Apr 14, 2015 6:00am Apr 14, 2015 6:00am
To the pip
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  • #29
  • Apr 14, 2015 6:18am Apr 14, 2015 6:18am
And then it flies straight through lol
  • #30
  • Jun 29, 2016 5:42am Jun 29, 2016 5:42am
Old thread that I want to revive as the situations described still occur. Time permitting I want to investigate this further. Having read HiddenGap's posts I believe there is something in this.

Please come along for the ride and feel free to contribute
  • #31
  • Jul 4, 2016 7:52am Jul 4, 2016 7:52am
Possible next target, for whatever reason, price needs to come back to these areas. I don't yet know why, but I sure wanna work it out!
If we get a close above the 50% fib I'd be tempted to long with target at the 1.1360 area.
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  • #32
  • Jan 30, 2018 8:41am Jan 30, 2018 8:41am
There was some good exchange of thoughts on this a while back. Thought I'd give it another bump and see if anyone wants to continue this discussion.
I've been in and out of the markets, not had time to concentrate on a method, but this observation still causes me great interest
  • #33
  • Feb 7, 2018 3:45am Feb 7, 2018 3:45am
The old hourly hidden gaps keep on giving. Next visit 1.2362 ish I suspect soon.
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  • #34
  • Last Post: Feb 19, 2021 6:22am Feb 19, 2021 6:22am
Resurrection of an old post. The retest of bar open prices still seems to be a thing. The question is when to safely enter to minimize draw-down.
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